About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 03, 2020 360 Aug 31, 2020
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep. 03, 2020 52 Aug 17, 2020
SOYBEAN September Sep. 03, 2020 2 Jul 30, 2020
WHEAT September Sep. 03, 2020 3 Aug 20, 2020

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher with the Chicago Winter Wheat markets leading the charge on fund buying. Minneapolis Spring Wheat were also higher, but encountered producer selling to close with smaller gains. Trends in the Winter Wheat markets have been up. The market is still reacting to which way Wheat prices are going here and overseas, with Black Se prices higher yesterday. Spring Wheat continues to develop under good growing conditions in both the US and Canada. Harvest has expanded and yield reports are solid in the northern Plains. It is still dry in France and Russia and now Spring Wheat areas of Russia are being affected. Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better growing conditions. Australia remains in good condition and is getting rains. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry and wire reports indicate that production in the worst areas could be 50% of normal.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 574 December. Support is at 547, 543, and 542 December, with resistance at 570, 571, and 574 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 502 December. Support is at 475, 469, and 465 December, with resistance at 490, 495, and 506 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 561 December. Support is at 543, 535, and 533 December, and resistance is at 549, 554, and 556 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower after damage assessment to the Rice crop showed that little if any damage was done. The damage from Laura was intense near the Gulf Coast but most if not all of the Rice had already been harvested. The storm diminished quickly and little damage was reported in Mississippi, Arkansas, of Missouri. Storms through Arkansas now from the north brought no damaging weather. New crop prospects still appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The crops are called in good condition in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Harvest is about to begin in these states. Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong. Quality is called average to above average.
Overnight News: The Delta should get big rains from Laura and Marco. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1204, 1192, and 1185 November, with resistance at 1245, 1260, and 1267 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 2
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.78 10.71 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.47 11.08 0.00
Brokens 10.64 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly higher in reaction to more strong demand from China and deterioration in the Crop Progress and Condition reports due to the hot and dry weather seen in the Midwest last week. Some showers were reported in southern Iowa yesterday and into central and northern Illinois. The rains were beneficial but not enough to reverse any damage to the crops. Much more rain will be needed in Iowa and Illinois soon just to keep ratings stable. The market closed strong on buying from the funds. There is a crop out there and it will be harvested soon. That means that seasonal harvest pressure should be seen in this market in the near future.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 355, 348, and 345 December, and resistance is at 362, 363, and 364 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 283 and 294 December. Support is at 273, 271, and 268 December, and resistance is at 279, 283, and 286 December.

The USDA said 424 mil bu of corn was used for fuel alcohol in July, up from 379,000 mil a month ago and 451 mil last year.
—DDGS production in July was 1.864 mt versus 1.664 mt last month and 1.986 mt a year ago

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mostly higher on fund buying. Showers were reported in southern Iowa and central and northern Illinois. The change in the weather pattern should help the Soybeans on their way to maturity although the rains were mostly too light to do much in Iowa and Illinois. Cooler temperatures are seen behind the front, but it was the rain that was most important. The weather will start to lose its bullish influence on prices in the next few weeks and the harvesters get ready to roll.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 943, 940, and 920 November, and resistance is at 968, 976, and 980 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 304.00, 301.00, and 298.00 October, and resistance is at 309.00, 313.00, and 315.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3250, 3190, and 3150 October, with resistance at 3390, 3430, and 3460 October.

The USDA July soybean crush was pegged at 184.5 mil bu (estimate was 183 mil bu) versus 177 mil a month ago and 179 mil last year
—Soyoil stocks were 2.124 bil lbs (estimate was 2.131 bil) versus 2.271 bil last month and 2.040 bil a year ago
—Soymeal stocks were 412,000t versus 420,000t last month and 345,000t a year ago

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on news that Malaysia would limit the amount of foreign workers allowed in te country. Palm plantations might not get the needed workers for harvest and other fieldwork. Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production in Malaysia. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola closed lower on good growing conditions in Canada and Chicago price action. StatsCan showed very strong production potential for the crop in a report released Monday. The strength in the Canadian Dollar is more about weakness in the US Dollar than anything going on in Canada. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies. The weather has been warm and most areas have seen rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 494.00, 491.00, and 490.00 November, with resistance at 503.00, 505.00, and 508.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2950 and 3140 November. Support is at 2760, 2700, and 2650 November, with resistance at 2850, 2880, and 2910 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry in all areas today. Temperatures should average near normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +51 Sep +134 Dec +55 Sep +72 Nov +15 Dec N/A
October +54 Dec +65 Dec +65 Nov
November +61 Dec +65 Dec +72 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 1
WINNIPEG, Sept. 1 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 462.20 -36.00 Nov 2020 dn 0.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 513.10 12.00 Nov 2020 up 2.90
Basis: Vancouver 526.10 25.00 Nov 2020 up 2.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 732.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 705.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 690.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 680.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 735.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 707.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 692.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 682.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 730.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 655.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 2,920.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 188.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1420)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 166,974 lots, or 7.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 – – – 4,750 4,750 4,750 0 0 2,186
Nov-20 4,428 4,435 4,355 4,383 4,411 4,387 -24 3,785 3,666
Jan-21 4,444 4,453 4,388 4,408 4,435 4,420 -15 160,663 128,034
Mar-21 4,468 4,519 4,188 4,443 4,468 4,446 -22 1,364 4,142
May-21 4,491 4,505 4,443 4,464 4,489 4,471 -18 875 4,723
Jul-21 4,490 4,493 4,453 4,469 4,490 4,470 -20 287 1,066
Corn
Turnover: 953,166 lots, or 21.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,230 2,240 2,230 2,234 2,227 2,234 7 757 1,725
Nov-20 2,249 2,269 2,244 2,262 2,250 2,259 9 77,251 39,252
Jan-21 2,270 2,295 2,267 2,290 2,271 2,285 14 700,329 1,248,039
Mar-21 2,297 2,320 2,294 2,316 2,296 2,311 15 24,067 19,058
May-21 2,308 2,330 2,302 2,325 2,305 2,320 15 109,814 376,810
Jul-21 2,330 2,356 2,327 2,350 2,328 2,346 18 40,948 54,836
Soymeal
Turnover: 638,095 lots, or 18.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,879 2,955 2,879 2,937 2,911 2,938 27 2,808 2,626
Nov-20 2,920 2,935 2,917 2,924 2,932 2,925 -7 33,533 76,369
Dec-20 2,928 2,941 2,922 2,928 2,943 2,931 -12 2,583 2,838
Jan-21 2,937 2,952 2,932 2,940 2,946 2,941 -5 455,343 1,383,543
Mar-21 2,842 2,843 2,828 2,833 2,837 2,836 -1 4,720 13,223
May-21 2,799 2,810 2,795 2,800 2,795 2,802 7 115,148 774,134
Jul-21 2,815 2,823 2,810 2,813 2,812 2,817 5 18,857 5,037
Aug-21 2,841 2,859 2,835 2,842 2,848 2,848 0 5,103 2,164
Palm Oil
Turnover: 806,524 lots, or 47.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 6,198 6,198 6,190 6,190 6,196 6,190 -6 514 81
Oct-20 6,060 6,138 6,024 6,130 6,054 6,068 14 4,936 3,879
Nov-20 5,972 6,036 5,928 6,026 5,958 5,962 4 6,649 6,472
Dec-20 5,890 5,948 5,834 5,930 5,886 5,882 -4 4,480 1,087
Jan-21 5,866 5,932 5,806 5,914 5,850 5,866 16 713,779 461,693
Feb-21 5,806 5,896 5,786 5,878 5,822 5,830 8 47,959 3,222
Mar-21 5,814 5,860 5,776 5,858 5,838 5,808 -30 359 329
Apr-21 – – – 5,664 5,664 5,664 0 0 152
May-21 5,756 5,802 5,700 5,794 5,750 5,752 2 27,847 45,583
Jun-21 – – – 5,774 5,686 5,774 88 0 2
Jul-21 5,788 5,788 5,788 5,788 5,728 5,788 60 1 5
Aug-21 – – – 5,732 5,728 5,732 4 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 598,262 lots, or 39.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 6,666 6,666 6,660 6,660 6,630 6,660 30 500 2,238
Nov-20 6,680 6,722 6,638 6,710 6,660 6,674 14 18,434 8,454
Dec-20 6,668 6,710 6,632 6,702 6,662 6,666 4 2,282 653
Jan-21 6,690 6,720 6,626 6,700 6,662 6,676 14 505,137 587,150
Mar-21 6,630 6,690 6,596 6,674 6,626 6,638 12 13,290 4,043
May-21 6,554 6,566 6,482 6,550 6,526 6,534 8 46,068 133,647
Jul-21 6,430 6,484 6,386 6,452 6,520 6,446 -74 12,549 1,767
Aug-21 6,452 6,452 6,452 6,452 6,498 6,452 -46 2 14
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322