About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Aug 6
For the week ended Jul 30, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 605.5 5.0 10223.4 9364.9 5695.1 5.0
hrw 272.7 0.0 3797.2 3687.0 1727.1 0.0
srw 88.7 0.0 1015.3 1209.8 704.1 0.0
hrs 151.8 5.0 3007.3 2439.5 1852.0 5.0
white 92.2 0.0 2018.7 1623.5 1214.9 0.0
durum 0.1 0.0 384.9 405.0 197.0 0.0
corn 101.6 2599.5 43782.6 49927.8 5093.8 10927.1
soybeans 345.2 1405.0 46940.7 48770.5 6979.8 15136.2
soymeal 328.3 203.9 11999.4 11676.5 1890.4 761.1
soyoil 24.4 11.1 1269.3 875.6 192.0 32.0
upland cotton -68.5 130.8 17056.4 9826.9 2925.4 3677.0
pima cotton 0.0 13.3 603.5 233.9 120.5 51.8
sorghum -13.3 211.6 4351.3 1692.3 539.0 1195.6
barley 0.6 0.0 39.2 56.7 36.5 0.0
rice 2.6 5.2 3389.9 1146.8 259.3 86.5

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 07, 2020 259 Aug 03, 2020
ETHANOL August Aug. 07, 2020 13 Aug 05, 2020

DJ Food Prices Continue Steady Rebound -UN FAO
By Will Horner
Global food prices rose for a second consecutive month in July as they continued to recover from a sharp slump driven by the coronavirus, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday.
The UN FAO’s monthly food price index–which tracks a basket of the most common foodstuffs such as grains, vegetable oils and meat–rose 1.2% in July to 94.2.
The rise marks a second monthly rise for food prices and suggests that the worst of the coronavirus’s negative effect on food commodities has abated. Food prices, as measured by the FAO, fell for four consecutive months at the start of the year as food supply was slow to adjust to the pandemic’s sharp hit to demand.
The rise in the overall index last month came largely from jumps in the price of vegetable oils and dairy. The FAO’s vegetable oil price sub-index rose 7.6% thanks to a combination of supply disruptions and larger-than-expected import demand.
A sub-index tracking dairy prices rose 3.5% due to steadily rising demand in Asia and Europe, the FAO said.
Sugar prices rose 1.4% driven by rising energy prices and a drought in Thailand that threatened supply, while cereal prices rose a modest 0.4%, the FAO said. Meat prices were the only foodstuff tracked by the FAO to register a decline, falling 1.8%.

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were a little higher in recovery trading. There did not seem to be much fundamental news behind the rally, but spread liquidation against Soybeans was noted. News that Russian yields were much improved from early in the harvest pushed Wheat lower yesterday. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are high. It is still dry in France and Russia and now Spring Wheat areas of Russia are being affected. Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better growing conditions. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains in most areas. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Egypt bought 410,000 tons of Russian and Ukrainian Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 491 and 411 September. Support is at 494, 488, and 484 September, with resistance at 517, 519, and 529 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 415 and 411 September. Support is at 418, 412, and 406 September, with resistance at 432, 438, and 447 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 494, 478, and 468 September. Support is at 500, 498, and 492 September, and resistance is at 506, 512, and 520 September.

RICE
General Comments Rice was higher. It was another quiet day. The harvest is active near the Gulf Coast, but rains are still being reported to interrupt progress. Field yields are reported to be high and the quality of the Rice is called very good. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops are called in good condition in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1153, 1148, and 1135 September, with resistance at 1176, 1183, and 1191 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 5
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.31 11.05 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.99 11.43 0.00
Brokens 10.98 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments Corn was higher in recovery trading. There did not seem to be much fundamental news to support the rally, but some spread liquidation against Soybeans was noted. Ideas of huge yields from the US crop this year have futures under pressure. Rains fell in many of the drier areas of the Midwest again last week and greatly benefited the crops. It has turned cooler and is still wet and is considered good for kernel fill. About 15% of the Midwest is still too dry. Trends are down in Corn. Meats processors are back and are operating at close to capacity. Meats wholesale and retail prices are stable. Recent reverses by some states on opening orders are hurting demand ideas for ethanol, but ethanol demand has been increasing. US prices are high in the world market so export sales of Corn are expected to be less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 299 September. Support is at 308, 307, and 302 September, and resistance is at 315, 318, and 322 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 262 and 249 September. Support is at 272, 270, and 267 September, and resistance is at 278, 280, and 284 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower on great growing conditions for the US crop and on spread liquidation against Corn and Wheat. China bought 192,000 tons of US Soybeans yesterday for the first purchases reported in the daily system in a week. The market keeps worrying about new sales to China as tensions between the US and China grow. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. Its commitments have been thrown into doubt by the continued political tensions between the two countries. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices are higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans with cooler temperatures and beneficial rains. About 15% of the Midwest is still too dry.
Overnight News: China bought 126,000 tons of US Soybeans yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 866 August. Support is at 871, 867, and 863 August, and resistance is at 884, 894, and 903 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 278.00 and 272.00 August. Support is at 282.00, 281.00, and 279.00 August, and resistance is at 286.00, 289.00, and 293.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3300 August. Support is at 3090, 3040, and 3020 August, with resistance at 3190, 3210, and 3230 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on reports of less production from Malaysia and Indonesia. Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production. Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was mostly lower on the higher Canadian Dollar and good crop prospects. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 4834.00 and 478.00 November. Support is at 485.00, 482.00, and 481.00 November, with resistance at 495.00, 499.00, and 502.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2850, 2910, and 3140 October. Support is at 2690, 2610, and 2560 October, with resistance at 2810, 2830, and 2840 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Periods of showers in all areas. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +47 Sep +150 Sep +60 Sep +71 Aug N/A N/A
September +52 Sep +60 Sep +71 Nov
October +49 Dec +65 Dec +68 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 5
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Aug. 5, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 475.40 -35.00 Nov 2020 dn 19.60
Track Thunder Bay 502.40 14.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.40
Track Vancouver 513.40 25.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 725.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 717.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 677.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 660.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 650.00 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 727.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 720.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 680.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 662.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 652.50 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 700.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 610.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,900.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 184.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1880)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 154,196 lots, or 7.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,649 4,679 4,641 4,663 4,683 4,661 -22 129,315 95,548
Nov-20 4,272 4,291 4,262 4,269 4,295 4,273 -22 690 2,594
Jan-21 4,264 4,281 4,254 4,258 4,285 4,266 -19 23,125 57,380
Mar-21 4,272 4,272 4,253 4,254 4,286 4,259 -27 162 206
May-21 4,292 4,300 4,279 4,280 4,296 4,282 -14 830 4,959
Jul-21 4,277 4,297 4,272 4,272 4,304 4,284 -20 74 401
Corn
Turnover: 844,127 lots, or 19.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,281 2,316 2,276 2,284 2,296 2,294 -2 307,697 241,770
Nov-20 2,266 2,280 2,258 2,262 2,268 2,267 -1 19,694 54,928
Jan-21 2,254 2,275 2,246 2,252 2,253 2,259 6 432,947 934,764
Mar-21 2,273 2,298 2,269 2,275 2,276 2,282 6 8,618 13,569
May-21 2,288 2,308 2,275 2,284 2,287 2,290 3 65,647 305,410
Jul-21 2,313 2,331 2,301 2,309 2,313 2,316 3 9,524 32,466
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,468,110 lots, or 41.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 2,988 2,988 2,988 2,988 2,955 2,988 33 1 1,000
Sep-20 2,876 2,879 2,837 2,845 2,889 2,853 -36 402,520 596,488
Nov-20 2,890 2,899 2,859 2,875 2,910 2,875 -35 57,365 53,060
Dec-20 2,898 2,900 2,865 2,879 2,911 2,880 -31 30,677 5,755
Jan-21 2,888 2,893 2,860 2,873 2,901 2,874 -27 802,493 1,252,247
Mar-21 2,746 2,759 2,739 2,750 2,754 2,749 -5 5,880 5,624
May-21 2,718 2,720 2,696 2,707 2,719 2,707 -12 169,141 672,711
Jul-21 2,730 2,730 2,720 2,726 2,740 2,726 -14 33 635
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,077,933 lots, or 62.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 – – – 5,748 5,748 5,748 0 0 0
Sep-20 5,886 5,956 5,854 5,950 5,918 5,908 -10 819,126 257,512
Oct-20 5,798 5,840 5,730 5,820 5,798 5,794 -4 18,228 7,881
Nov-20 5,696 5,750 5,644 5,722 5,706 5,692 -14 11,951 3,529
Dec-20 5,648 5,702 5,602 5,682 5,672 5,650 -22 11,756 1,206
Jan-21 5,600 5,660 5,552 5,660 5,636 5,610 -26 213,042 212,318
Feb-21 – – – 5,616 5,616 5,616 0 0 119
Mar-21 – – – 5,618 5,618 5,618 0 0 18
Apr-21 – – – 5,560 5,560 5,560 0 0 151
May-21 5,550 5,574 5,504 5,572 5,558 5,544 -14 3,827 15,191
Jun-21 5,558 5,558 5,558 5,558 5,570 5,558 -12 2 1
Jul-21 5,508 5,508 5,508 5,508 5,584 5,508 -76 1 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 740,536 lots, or 46.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 – – – 6,086 6,086 6,086 0 0 1
Sep-20 6,348 6,360 6,262 6,326 6,396 6,310 -86 264,009 167,850
Nov-20 6,336 6,374 6,278 6,356 6,398 6,332 -66 15,446 10,253
Dec-20 6,340 6,348 6,252 6,328 6,364 6,300 -64 5,925 2,048
Jan-21 6,282 6,306 6,206 6,288 6,324 6,258 -66 422,500 464,875
Mar-21 6,210 6,232 6,148 6,208 6,248 6,188 -60 8,947 472
May-21 6,198 6,198 6,124 6,186 6,204 6,162 -42 23,704 70,988
Jul-21 6,184 6,194 6,168 6,194 6,256 6,184 -72 5 3
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322