About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jul 30
For the week ended Jul 23, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 676.6 0.0 9617.8 8877.2 5687.6 0.0
hrw 210.9 0.0 3524.4 3557.4 1732.0 0.0
srw 37.5 0.0 926.6 1174.7 659.9 0.0
hrs 247.1 0.0 2855.4 2214.6 1808.3 0.0
white 158.1 0.0 1926.5 1567.5 1280.4 0.0
durum 23.0 0.0 384.8 363.1 207.0 0.0
corn -29.3 638.7 43681.1 49885.3 5677.7 8327.6
soybeans 257.8 3344.2 46778.4 48725.0 7448.7 13731.2
soymeal 260.9 32.9 11671.1 11584.3 1794.6 557.3
soyoil 0.8 10.0 1245.0 843.9 215.2 21.0
upland cotton 118.7 9.5 17124.9 15543.3 3340.7 3546.3
pima cotton 9.1 0.5 603.4 725.4 136.8 38.5
sorghum 4.3 163.0 4364.6 1653.4 723.9 984.0
barley 0.0 0.0 38.7 56.7 36.3 0.0
rice 23.0 6.0 3387.3 3537.4 305.9 81.3

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher on stable European and Russian prices and ideas that Brazil bought some US Wheat in recent days. There was no confirmation of the sale but US Wheat works into Latin America despite higher US prices due to the freight advantage. Spring Wheat here is developing under good growing conditions but futures prices closed higher. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are expected to be high. The Winter Wheat markets are in trading ranges. Spring Wheat markets show mixed trends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. It is still dry in France and Russia and now Spring Wheat areas of Russia are being affected. Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better growing conditions. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 519, 517, and 494 September, with resistance at 540, 544, and 552 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 433, 431, and 424 September, with resistance at 455, 464, and 468 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 493, 478, and 468 September. Support is at 506, 500, and 498 September, and resistance is at 520, 528, and 531 September.

RICE
General Comments Rice was a little lower on follow through selling from the hurricane that passed to the south of the Texas growing areas and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast and are called in good condition now in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1111 September. Support is at 1120, 1116, and 1100 September, with resistance at 1147, 1170, and 1176 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments Corn was lower on better growing conditions and limited demand. It should turn cooler and wetter for parts of this week. Eastern areas are likely to see the rains while the west misses out. Trends are down in Corn. There have been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are close to capacity. Meats wholesale and retail prices are stable or falling. Recent reverses by some states on opening orders are hurting demand ideas for ethanol. US prices are still high in the world market so export sales are expected to be less.
Overnight News: China bought 1.937 million tons of US Corn. Unknown destinations bought 130,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 314, 311, and 299 September. Support is at 314, 307, and 303 September, and resistance is at 325, 330, and 336 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 275, 270, and 268 September, and resistance is at 284, 288, and 290 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower on no new reports of Chinese demand and better than expected crop condition ratings from USDA. The ratings imply that yields for Corn and Soybeans will be very high. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. Its commitments have been thrown into doubt by the continued political tensions between the two countries. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US for additional supplies. The US weather calls for drier weather to the west and showers to the east.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 887, 884, and 866 August. Support is at 890, 883, and 882 August, and resistance is at 9-02, 911, and 917 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 284.00, 278.00, and 272.00 August. Support is at 287.00, 282.00, and 281.00 August, and resistance is at 292.00, 296.00, and 298.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2710 and 2640 August. Support is at 2950, 2910, and 2890 August, with resistance at 3020, 3030, and 3050 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on reports of less production from Malaysia and Indonesia and ideas of increasing demand. Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production. Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher with Chicago. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 491.00 November. Support is at 488.00, 485.00, and 482.00 November, with resistance at 493.00, 496.00, and 499.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2430 and 1960 October. Support is at 2560, 2490, and 2420 October, with resistance at 2670, 2710, and 2790 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry to the south, periods of showers north. Temperatures should average above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +48 Sep +145 Sep +60 Sep +69 Aug N/A N/A
August +52 Sep +60 Sep +71 Aug
September +55 Sep +60 Sep +72 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 29
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 471.50 -16.10 Nov 2020 dn 1.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 507.20 16.00 Nov 2020 up 3.60
Basis: Vancouver 516.20 25.00 Nov 2020 up 3.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 692.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 682.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 647.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 637.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 695.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 685.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 650.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 640.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 665.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 580.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,780.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 180.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2390)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 173,621 lots, or 8.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,702 4,728 4,673 4,710 4,682 4,701 19 145,944 116,236
Nov-20 4,334 4,346 4,315 4,335 4,345 4,331 -14 506 2,228
Jan-21 4,328 4,345 4,300 4,322 4,342 4,320 -22 26,657 57,830
Mar-21 4,330 4,330 4,300 4,317 4,330 4,318 -12 24 186
May-21 4,354 4,359 4,319 4,333 4,360 4,334 -26 437 4,559
Jul-21 4,343 4,345 4,314 4,336 4,347 4,327 -20 53 441
Corn
Turnover: 1,430,078 lots, or 32.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,307 2,327 2,287 2,321 2,305 2,308 3 730,081 421,249
Nov-20 2,259 2,273 2,243 2,263 2,251 2,256 5 29,895 56,171
Jan-21 2,250 2,264 2,233 2,255 2,239 2,251 12 526,981 803,803
Mar-21 2,255 2,267 2,239 2,260 2,239 2,252 13 8,916 5,026
May-21 2,285 2,297 2,271 2,285 2,267 2,284 17 100,446 251,749
Jul-21 2,294 2,316 2,287 2,306 2,279 2,301 22 33,759 14,743
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,395,850 lots, or 40.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 2,900 3,045 2,892 2,930 2,923 2,916 -7 51 1,035
Sep-20 2,924 2,932 2,894 2,905 2,932 2,914 -18 788,694 798,869
Nov-20 2,935 2,945 2,909 2,924 2,949 2,930 -19 52,217 55,562
Dec-20 2,965 2,965 2,930 2,941 2,965 2,953 -12 22,097 5,356
Jan-21 2,940 2,948 2,913 2,924 2,940 2,930 -10 422,810 1,142,727
Mar-21 2,771 2,777 2,756 2,760 2,767 2,764 -3 2,443 4,343
May-21 2,725 2,729 2,711 2,717 2,719 2,717 -2 107,414 502,444
Jul-21 2,743 2,743 2,728 2,732 2,736 2,732 -4 124 312
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,321,832 lots, or 74.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 6,040 6,040 5,770 5,770 5,894 5,904 10 2 1
Sep-20 5,634 5,712 5,616 5,700 5,602 5,662 60 1,104,926 279,819
Oct-20 5,530 5,592 5,490 5,580 5,442 5,546 104 17,961 6,475
Nov-20 5,462 5,538 5,440 5,526 5,398 5,486 88 9,368 3,167
Dec-20 5,446 5,528 5,440 5,516 5,388 5,472 84 7,888 1,612
Jan-21 5,406 5,480 5,400 5,478 5,356 5,436 80 179,102 161,772
Feb-21 5,492 5,492 5,436 5,444 5,354 5,456 102 3 119
Mar-21 – – – 5,428 5,362 5,428 66 0 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,416 5,384 5,416 32 0 151
May-21 5,394 5,444 5,390 5,444 5,346 5,420 74 2,582 12,608
Jun-21 – – – 5,402 5,402 5,402 0 0 1
Jul-21 – – – 5,374 5,372 5,374 2 0 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 681,859 lots, or 42.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 – – – 6,082 6,082 6,082 0 0 1
Sep-20 6,164 6,272 6,164 6,272 6,128 6,220 92 409,919 233,326
Nov-20 6,178 6,288 6,178 6,282 6,124 6,226 102 9,891 9,546
Dec-20 6,206 6,278 6,198 6,278 6,106 6,228 122 6,153 2,378
Jan-21 6,156 6,258 6,138 6,258 6,088 6,196 108 246,480 353,967
Mar-21 6,106 6,178 6,086 6,174 6,032 6,138 106 3,473 417
May-21 6,062 6,162 6,062 6,160 6,052 6,126 74 5,942 36,978
Jul-21 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,034 6,100 66 1 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322