About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower on rains in the forecast for Russian Spring Wheat areas and ideas of increasing production there. European futures were lower as well. Spring Wheat here is developing under good growing conditions but futures prices closed higher. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are expected to be high. The Winter Wheat markets are in trading ranges. Spring Wheat markets show mixed trends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. It is still dry in France and Russia and now Spring Wheat areas of Russia are being affected. Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better growing conditions. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Egypt bought 470,000 tons of Russian and Ukrainian Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 496 and 411 September. Support is at 517, 494, and 489 September, with resistance at 530, 540, and 544 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 427, 416, and 399 September. Support is at 431, 426, and 418 September, with resistance at 441, 455, and 464 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 493, 478, and 468 September. Support is at 500, 498, and 492 September, and resistance is at 510, 520, and 528 September.

RICE
General Comments Rice was lower as the hurricane passed to the south of the Texas growing areas and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast and are called in good condition now in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1111 September. Support is at 1120, 1116, and 1100 September, with resistance at 1147, 1170, and 1176 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jul 29
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.72 11.19 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.37 11.93 0.00
Brokens 11.24 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments Corn was lower on better growing conditions and limited demand. It should turn cooler and wetter for parts of this week. Eastern areas are likely to see the rains while the west misses out. Trends are turning down in Corn. There have been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are close to capacity. Meats wholesale and retail prices are stable or falling. Recent reverses by some states on opening orders are hurting demand ideas for ethanol. US prices are still high in the world market so export sales are expected to be less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 314, 311, and 299 September. Support is at 322, 316, and 307 September, and resistance is at 325, 330, and 336 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 284, 304, and 3211 September. Support is at 284, 281, and 276 September, and resistance is at 288, 290, and 298 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower on no new reports of Chinese demand and better than expected crop condition ratings from USDA. The ratings imply that yields for Corn and Soybeans will be very high. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. Its commitments have been thrown into doubt by the continued political tensions between the two countries. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US for additional supplies. The US weather calls for drier weather to the west and showers to the east.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 887, 884, and 866 August. Support is at 890, 883, and 882 August, and resistance is at 9-02, 911, and 917 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 284.00, 278.00, and 272.00 August. Support is at 287.00, 282.00, and 281.00 August, and resistance is at 292.00, 296.00, and 298.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2710 and 2640 August. Support is at 2890, 2860, and 2780 August, with resistance at 2960, 3020, and 3050 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on reports of less production from Malaysia and Indonesia and ideas of increasing demand. Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production. Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was lower with Chicago. Canola fell initially on improved growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies, but recovered on speculative buying. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 491.00 November. Support is at 485.00, 482.00, and 480.00 November, with resistance at 490.00, 493.00, and 496.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2430 and 1960 October. Support is at 2490, 2420, and 2360 October, with resistance at 2620, 2670, and 2710 October.

DJ Malaysia July 1-25 Palm Oil Exports Fell 2.2%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the July 1-25 period are estimated down 2.2% on month at 1,385,186 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
July 1-25 June 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 364,752 481,025
RBD Palm Oil 107,232 115,135
RBD Palm Stearin 114,945 136,822
Crude Palm Oil 429,257 311,099
Total* 1,385,186 1,416,751

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry to the south, periods of showers north. Temperatures should average above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +55 Sep +145 Sep +60 Sep +71 Aug N/A N/A
August +57 Sep +60 Sep +73 Aug
September +60 Sep +60 Sep +75 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 27
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 469.70 -18.00 Nov 2020 up 2.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 504.70 16.00 Nov 2020 up 1.00
Basis: Vancouver 513.70 25.00 Nov 2020 up 1.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 685.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 677.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 637.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 630.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 687.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 680.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 640.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 632.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 660.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 575.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,760.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 177.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2430)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 311,371 lots, or 14.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,653 4,720 4,636 4,707 4,621 4,682 61 268,144 122,201
Nov-20 4,344 4,378 4,314 4,336 4,328 4,345 17 1,326 2,346
Jan-21 4,329 4,371 4,315 4,333 4,307 4,342 35 40,637 57,242
Mar-21 4,333 4,351 4,312 4,325 4,290 4,330 40 240 183
May-21 4,350 4,383 4,338 4,346 4,321 4,360 39 828 4,547
Jul-21 4,341 4,376 4,330 4,337 4,314 4,347 33 196 449
Corn
Turnover: 1,043,607 lots, or 23.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,300 2,319 2,289 2,311 2,306 2,305 -1 615,812 450,022
Nov-20 2,240 2,267 2,232 2,263 2,250 2,251 1 22,111 57,003
Jan-21 2,228 2,258 2,220 2,255 2,227 2,239 12 337,871 752,684
Mar-21 2,225 2,260 2,221 2,256 2,223 2,239 16 5,019 5,002
May-21 2,240 2,286 2,240 2,284 2,249 2,267 18 53,643 231,694
Jul-21 2,263 2,299 2,259 2,296 2,264 2,279 15 9,151 5,978
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,297,930 lots, or 37.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 2,971 2,971 2,910 2,910 2,947 2,923 -24 52 1,080
Sep-20 2,934 2,947 2,922 2,927 2,979 2,932 -47 741,732 850,243
Nov-20 2,949 2,961 2,936 2,941 2,990 2,949 -41 52,956 55,613
Dec-20 2,961 2,976 2,952 2,959 3,000 2,965 -35 16,896 5,415
Jan-21 2,930 2,948 2,925 2,942 2,965 2,940 -25 412,872 1,120,698
Mar-21 2,759 2,780 2,758 2,772 2,781 2,767 -14 2,051 4,200
May-21 2,717 2,726 2,712 2,722 2,732 2,719 -13 71,297 475,950
Jul-21 2,735 2,742 2,729 2,741 2,746 2,736 -10 74 324
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,316,876 lots, or 73.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 6,362 6,362 5,510 5,690 5,912 5,894 -18 5 1
Sep-20 5,582 5,646 5,542 5,622 5,658 5,602 -56 1,130,375 284,668
Oct-20 5,402 5,528 5,380 5,524 5,536 5,442 -94 15,685 6,738
Nov-20 5,340 5,454 5,330 5,452 5,450 5,398 -52 10,679 3,001
Dec-20 5,350 5,448 5,328 5,432 5,432 5,388 -44 9,339 1,532
Jan-21 5,332 5,402 5,306 5,400 5,374 5,356 -18 146,986 147,574
Feb-21 5,354 5,354 5,354 5,354 5,522 5,354 -168 1 119
Mar-21 – – – 5,362 5,362 5,362 0 0 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,384 5,384 5,384 0 0 151
May-21 5,310 5,388 5,294 5,388 5,344 5,346 2 3,804 13,030
Jun-21 5,402 5,402 5,402 5,402 5,532 5,402 -130 1 1
Jul-21 5,372 5,372 5,372 5,372 5,388 5,372 -16 1 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 550,932 lots, or 33.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 6,084 6,084 6,082 6,082 6,494 6,082 -412 2 1
Sep-20 6,076 6,180 6,070 6,166 6,132 6,128 -4 354,936 236,172
Nov-20 6,060 6,190 6,046 6,190 6,128 6,124 -4 5,756 10,044
Dec-20 6,068 6,170 6,058 6,170 6,102 6,106 4 4,832 2,357
Jan-21 6,034 6,146 6,016 6,138 6,068 6,088 20 176,470 306,648
Mar-21 6,010 6,104 5,966 6,084 6,018 6,032 14 3,817 319
May-21 6,000 6,094 5,984 6,082 6,028 6,052 24 5,118 36,428
Jul-21 6,034 6,034 6,034 6,034 6,058 6,034 -24 1 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322