Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed drifted lower on demand concerns as bad growing conditions continued in West Texas. Export demand for US Cotton has been poor for the last few weeks. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. However, economic improvement in the US was thrown into doubt as Coronavirus cases surged higher in states that had reopened. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and Southeast will get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 56.40 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 7,807 bales, from 7,807 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 5990 and 5790 December. Support is at 5950, 5930, and 5890 December, with resistance of 6190, 6270 and 6340 December.
Date 26-Jul 19-Jul 2019 Avg
Cotton Squaring 84 73 84 84
Cotton Setting Bolls 42 27 42 44
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 3 13 35 40 9
Cotton Last Week 5 17 31 39 8
Cotton Last Year 1 10 28 46 19
General Comments: FCOJ was lower. The market remains in a trading range. The fundamentals remain mostly positive for prices. Florida production is now estimated at 67 million boxes, unchanged from last month. New crop production could be hurt by an extended flowering season for the early varieties. California and US production was increased. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand, but inventories are creeping lower. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. The tree condition is called good. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. The harvest is active in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 121.00, 128.00, and 115.00 September, with resistance at 128.00, 131.00, and 132.00 September.
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower in currency related trading. Chart trends have turned up for at least the short term. There are renewed concerns about the weather in Vietnam. It was dry during flowering time and is dry again. Production ideas are lower. Demand overall remains down with the US still locking down due to the Coronavirus resurgence in some states. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. Europe is emerging from lock downs. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Even so, the pickers are showing up for work and ports are operating normally. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time.
Overnight News: 70CE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.597 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 109.14 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 111.00 September. Support is at 105.00, 103.00, and 99.00 September, and resistance is at 110.00, 114.00 and 115.00 September. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1330, 1310, and 1290 September, and resistance is at 139, 1400, and 1430 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and trends turned up in both markets. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market, but getting the Sugar moved is becoming more difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. Brazil mills have shifted part of the crush to Sugar production due to less ethanol demand. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1240 and 1310 October. Support is at 1200, 1170, and 1150 October, and resistance is at 1220, 1240, and 1260 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 373.00 and 401.00 October. Support is at 360.00, 350.00, and 347.00 October, and resistance is at 370.00, 376.00, and 378.00 October.
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed little changed in currency related trading. The weaker US Dollar has allowed New York to rally. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again but the Coronavirus is still around and consumers are reluctant to buy. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.043 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2340 and 2430 September. Support is at 2220, 2200, and 2170 September, with resistance at 2310, 2360, and 2400 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1520, 1510, and 1480 September, with resistance at 1600, 1660, and 1700 September.