About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 27
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 23, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/23/2020 07/16/2020 07/25/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 49 931 416 2,938
CORN 797,487 1,175,910 670,962 37,172,067 44,281,166
FLAXSEED 0 0 24 317 48
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 100 0 500 299
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 83,988 124,654 9,126 4,348,077 1,840,728
SOYBEANS 472,680 454,719 1,066,123 38,789,707 40,348,754
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 544,010 512,305 421,468 4,130,890 3,829,816
Total 1,898,165 2,267,737 2,168,634 84,441,974 90,303,749
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 26-Jul 19-Jul 2019 Avg
Cotton Squaring 84 73 84 84
Cotton Setting Bolls 42 27 42 44
Corn Silking 82 59 51 79
Coen Dough 22 9 11 17
Soybeans Blooming 76 64 52 72
Soybeans Setting Pods 43 25 17 36
Sorghum Headed 44 34 31 44
Sorghum Coloring Twenty 19 20 23
Rice Headed 43 32 39 53
Peanuts Pegging 84 77 82 83
Oats Harvested 32 20 18 30
Winter Wheat Harvested 81 74 73 82
Spring Wheat Headed 97 91 96 98
Spring Wheat Harvested 1 1 3
Barley Headed 96 88 94 97
Barley Harvested 1 2 3

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 3 13 35 40 9
Cotton Last Week 5 17 31 39 8
Cotton Last Year 1 10 28 46 19

Spring Wheat This Week 2 4 24 60 10
Spring Wheat Last Week 2 5 25 55 13
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 5 21 62 11

Corn This Week 2 5 21 55 17
Corn Last Week 2 6 23 52 17
Corn Last Year 3 9 30 47 11

Soybeans This Week 1 5 22 57 15
Soybeans Last Week 2 9 24 54 15
Soybeans Last Year 3 10 33 45 9

Sorghum This Week 2 9 36 42 11
Sorghum Last Week 3 9 37 43 8
Sorghum Last Year 1 3 25 59 12

Rice This Week 0 3 21 57 19
Rice Last Week 0 3 24 57 16
Rice Last Year 1 6 25 48 20

Peanuts This Week 1 5 20 62 12
Peanuts Last Week 1 6 22 60 11
Peanuts Last Year 1 4 25 61 9

Oats This Week 2 9 27 52 9
Oats Last Week 2 8 29 52 9
Oats Last Year 2 5 26 53 13

Barley This Week 1 3 16 56 24
Barley Last Week 0 4 21 48 27
Barley Last Year 0 5 18 62 15

Pastures and Ranges This Week 10 20 34 32 4
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 12 22 31 30 5
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 2 8 26 52 12

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower on rains in the forecast for Russian Spring Wheat areas and ideas of increasing production there. Spring Wheat here is developing under good growing conditions but futures prices closed higher. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are expected to be high. The Winter Wheat markets are in trading ranges. Spring Wheat markets show mixed trends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. It is still dry in France and Russia and now Spring Wheat areas of Russia are being affected. Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better growing conditions. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 517, 494, and 489 September, with resistance at 540, 544, and 552 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 431, 426, and 418 September, with resistance at 455, 464, and 468 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 508, 500, and 498 September, and resistance is at 520, 528, and 531 September.

RICE
General Comments Rice was lower as the hurricane passed to the south of the Texas growing areas and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast and are called in good condition now in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1144, 1132, and 1120 September, with resistance at 1170, 1176, and 1183 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments Corn was a little lower in limited volume trading. It is still a weather market. Rains fell in many of the drier areas of the Midwest again last week and greatly benefited the crops. It was hot and dry over the weekend but it should turn cooler and wetter for parts of this week. Eastern areas are likely to see the rains while the west misses out. Trends are turning down in Corn. There have been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are close to capacity. Meats wholesale and retail prices are stable or falling. Recent reverses by some states on opening orders are hurting demand ideas for ethanol. US prices are high in the world market so export sales are expected to be less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 322, 316, and 307 September, and resistance is at 330, 336, and 338 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 284, 304, and 3211 September. Support is at 284, 281, and 276 September, and resistance is at 288, 290, and 298 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little higher on better Chinese demand. Mexico was also a noted buyer of US Soybeans over the weekend. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. Its commitments have been thrown into doubt by the continued political tensions between the two countries. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time but forecasts call for dry weather in the next few days for western areas. Eastern areas should see showers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 914 and 927 August. Support is at 901, 890, and 885 August, and resistance is at 911, 917, and 921 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 291.00 and 295.00 August. Support is at 292.00, 290.00, and 287.00 August, and resistance is at 296.00, 298.00, and 300.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2710 and 2640 August. Support is at 2890, 2860, and 2780 August, with resistance at 3000, 3050, and 3100 August.

\CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher after news of renewed demand interest from India and China and on reports of less production from Malaysia and Indonesia. Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production. Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher. Canola fell initially on improved growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies, but recovered on speculative buying. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 491.00 November. Support is at 485.00, 482.00, and 480.00 November, with resistance at 490.00, 493.00, and 496.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2930 October. Support is at 2630, 2590, and 2490 October, with resistance at 2790, 2800, and 2830 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry to the south, periods of showers north. Temperatures should average above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +56 Sep +145 Sep +60 Sep +70 Aug N/A N/A
August +60 Sep +60 Sep +72 Aug
September +62 Sep +60 Sep +76 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 27
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 469.70 -18.00 Nov 2020 up 2.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 504.70 16.00 Nov 2020 up 1.00
Basis: Vancouver 513.70 25.00 Nov 2020 up 1.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 667.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 657.50 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 627.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 617.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 670.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 660.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 630.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 620.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 655.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 570.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,720.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 173.00 -09.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2515)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 301,759 lots, or 13.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,622 4,678 4,568 4,649 4,590 4,621 31 249,870 119,165
Nov-20 4,300 4,360 4,286 4,340 4,281 4,328 47 1,324 2,331
Jan-21 4,279 4,356 4,253 4,329 4,250 4,307 57 48,540 56,243
Mar-21 4,266 4,339 4,253 4,314 4,250 4,290 40 308 196
May-21 4,298 4,368 4,281 4,342 4,275 4,321 46 1,468 4,551
Jul-21 4,287 4,349 4,272 4,335 4,252 4,314 62 249 439
Corn
Turnover: 1,566,919 lots, or 35.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,350 2,350 2,274 2,294 2,309 2,306 -3 981,657 473,148
Nov-20 2,281 2,294 2,225 2,235 2,258 2,250 -8 46,746 56,716
Jan-21 2,266 2,267 2,206 2,220 2,249 2,227 -22 465,794 708,965
Mar-21 2,263 2,264 2,208 2,219 2,238 2,223 -15 8,137 4,570
May-21 2,280 2,285 2,229 2,241 2,261 2,249 -12 53,854 224,726
Jul-21 2,292 2,297 2,243 2,255 2,278 2,264 -14 10,731 5,380
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,575,930 lots, or 76.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 3,016 3,016 2,906 2,906 3,011 2,947 -64 175 1,102
Sep-20 3,032 3,045 2,926 2,929 3,020 2,979 -41 1,496,464 887,362
Nov-20 3,034 3,051 2,942 2,946 3,030 2,990 -40 53,991 59,448
Dec-20 3,038 3,050 2,953 2,956 3,025 3,000 -25 42,329 5,359
Jan-21 3,012 3,021 2,921 2,927 3,011 2,965 -46 839,953 1,118,840
Mar-21 2,811 2,817 2,757 2,759 2,817 2,781 -36 3,959 4,283
May-21 2,752 2,762 2,711 2,716 2,761 2,732 -29 138,906 464,500
Jul-21 2,770 2,773 2,730 2,732 2,770 2,746 -24 153 315
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,825,170 lots, or 10.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 – – – 5,912 5,912 5,912 0 0 1
Sep-20 5,680 5,766 5,558 5,588 5,750 5,658 -92 1,578,753 296,467
Oct-20 5,584 5,636 5,388 5,388 5,650 5,536 -114 23,142 6,582
Nov-20 5,518 5,548 5,352 5,356 5,558 5,450 -108 15,071 3,351
Dec-20 5,432 5,526 5,338 5,348 5,518 5,432 -86 11,306 1,822
Jan-21 5,398 5,448 5,306 5,322 5,474 5,374 -100 192,212 143,661
Feb-21 – – – 5,522 5,522 5,522 0 0 119
Mar-21 5,362 5,362 5,362 5,362 5,550 5,362 -188 1 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,384 5,384 5,384 0 0 151
May-21 5,380 5,424 5,292 5,306 5,432 5,344 -88 4,685 13,859
Jun-21 – – – 5,532 5,532 5,532 0 0 2
Jul-21 – – – 5,388 5,476 5,388 -88 0 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 757,969 lots, or 46.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 – – – 6,494 6,494 6,494 0 0 3
Sep-20 6,168 6,234 6,054 6,078 6,226 6,132 -94 492,949 255,235
Nov-20 6,176 6,224 6,056 6,078 6,206 6,128 -78 11,016 10,250
Dec-20 6,120 6,196 6,044 6,056 6,170 6,102 -68 10,711 2,443
Jan-21 6,098 6,158 6,006 6,016 6,130 6,068 -62 232,115 301,354
Mar-21 6,060 6,106 5,950 5,974 6,084 6,018 -66 5,984 388
May-21 6,014 6,104 5,970 5,976 6,072 6,028 -44 5,192 36,944
Jul-21 6,102 6,102 6,016 6,016 6,078 6,058 -20 2 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322