About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed drifted lower on demand concerns as bad growing conditions continued in West Texas. Export demand for US Cotton has been poor for the last few weeks. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. However, economic improvement in the US was thrown into doubt as Coronavirus cases surged higher in states that had reopened. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and Southeast will get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 55.67 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 7,807 bales, from 7,807 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 5990 and 5790 December. Support is at 5950, 5930, and 5890 December, with resistance of 6190, 6270 and 6340 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 213,887
: Positions :
: 38,938 17,590 44,317 40,684 135,615 78,034 7,466 201,973 204,989: 11,914 8,898
: Changes from: July 14, 2020 (Change in open interest: 3,447) :
: 1,312 2,216 790 -579 460 1,933 -108 3,456 3,358: -8 90
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.2 8.2 20.7 19.0 63.4 36.5 3.5 94.4 95.8: 5.6 4.2
: Total Traders: 258 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 47 73 54 64 46 19 217 178:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher on Friday, but lower for the week. The market remains in a trading range. The fundamentals remain mostly positive for prices. Florida production is now estimated at 67 million boxes, unchanged from last month. New crop production could be hurt by an extended flowering season for the early varieties. California and US production was increased. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand, but inventories are creeping lower. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. The tree condition is called good. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. The harvest is active in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 121.00, 128.00, and 115.00 September, with resistance at 128.00, 131.00, and 132.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,658 :
: Positions :
: 5,563 9,039 569 0 0 2,375 238 0 435 668 1,864 :
: Changes from: July 14, 2020 :
: 176 -374 -16 0 0 -124 183 0 -17 -19 -273 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 43.9 71.4 4.5 0.0 0.0 18.8 1.9 0.0 3.4 5.3 14.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 52 :
: 18 12 . 0 0 12 . 0 7 8 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jul 24
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
7/18/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
7/18/2020 7/20/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 314.53 323.58 -2.8%
Retail/Institutional 5.48 5.36 2.1%
Total 320.00 328.95 -2.7%
Pack
Bulk 0.48 0.43 11.6%
Retail/Institutional 1.07 1.75 -39.0%
Total Pack 1.55 2.18 -28.9%
Reprocessed -1.55 -2.18 -28.9%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.02 -0.05 -67.2%
Imports – Foreign 0.18 3.59 -95.0%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.03 -100.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.08 0.64 -87.2%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 313.71 326.04 -3.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.54 7.11 -8.0%
Total 320.25 333.15 -3.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.07 5.01 -18.7%
Exports 0.48 0.25 90.1%
Total (Bulk) 4.55 5.26 -13.5%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.98 1.36 -27.6%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.98 1.36 -27.6%
Total Movement 5.53 6.62 -16.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 309.16 320.78 -3.6%
Retail/Institutional 5.56 5.75 -3.4%
Ending Inventory 314.71 326.54 -3.6%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
18-Jul-20 20-Jul-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 136.89 142.44 -3.9%
Retail/Institutional 43.94 50.91 -13.7%
Total Pack 180.83 193.35 -6.5%
Reprocessed -98.82 -106.06 -6.8%
Pack from Fruit 82.01 87.29 -6.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -2.29 -1.13 102.2%
Imports – Foreign 131.28 246.07 -46.7%
Domestic Receipts 12.59 10.13 24.3%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.46 0.07 596.5%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 18.28 3.56 413.7%
Reprocessed FCTJ 2.10 3.18 -33.9%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 512.43 535.45 -4.3%
Retail/Institutional 49.76 56.82 -12.4%
Total 562.19 592.28 -5.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 197.61 197.76 -0.1%
Domestic 11.62 16.90 -31.2%
Exports 209.23 214.67 -2.5%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 44.20 51.07 -13.4%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 44.20 51.07 -13.4%
Total Movement 253.44 265.74 -4.6%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 309.16 320.78 -3.6%
Retail/Institutional 5.56 5.75 -3.4%
Ending Inventory 314.71 326.54 -3.6%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher and were led higher by the London Robusta market. Chart trends have turned up for at least the short term. There are renewed concerns about the weather in Vietnam. It was dry during flowering time and is dry again. Production ideas are lower. Demand overall remains down with the US still locking down due to the Coronavirus resurgence in some states. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. Europe is emerging from lock downs. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Even so, the pickers are showing up for work and ports are operating normally. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 1.597 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 108.01 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,497 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 111.00 September. Support is at 105.00, 103.00, and 99.00 September, and resistance is at 110.00, 114.00 and 115.00 September. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1330, 1310, and 1290 September, and resistance is at 1390, 1400, and 1430 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 329,603
: Positions :
: 32,823 53,116 86,308 129,882 162,094 65,228 18,965 314,240 320,484: 15,363 9,119
: Changes from: July 14, 2020 (Change in open interest: 6,916) :
: 969 -2,461 3,127 2,017 4,844 1,006 1,355 7,119 6,866: -202 51
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 16.1 26.2 39.4 49.2 19.8 5.8 95.3 97.2: 4.7 2.8
: Total Traders: 440 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 125 105 129 125 115 46 26 366 322:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/21/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
162,500 87,116 67,828 15,505 12,573 1,638
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 53.6% 41.7% 9.5% 7.7% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
145 46 41 11 7 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
11,417 36,406 10,135 6,620 6,141 24,055
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.0% 22.4% 6.2% 4.1% 3.8% 14.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 25 13 12 13 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,013 3,723
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.7% 2.3%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower but held the recent trading range. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market, but getting the Sugar moved is becoming more difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. Brazil mills have shifted part of the crush to Sugar production due to less ethanol demand. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1130, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1170, 1200, and 1230 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 343.00, 337.00, and 332.00 October, and resistance is at 357.00, 360.00, and 370.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,099,448
: Positions :
: 119,156 57,071 179,380 430,233 753,821 297,788 55,522 1,026,557 1,045,794: 72,891 53,654
: Changes from: July 14, 2020 (Change in open interest: 401) :
: 3,538 -2,585 1,842 -2,580 6,196 184 1,103 2,984 6,556: -2,583 -6,155
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.8 5.2 16.3 39.1 68.6 27.1 5.0 93.4 95.1: 6.6 4.9
: Total Traders: 249 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 43 77 81 75 42 22 222 187:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/21/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
98,423 49,448 80,817 10,687 4,359 2,791
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 50.2% 82.1% 10.9% 4.4% 2.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
113 37 40 10 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
21,025 1,295 2,846 3,574 1,240 2,939
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
21.4% 1.3% 2.9% 3.6% 1.3% 3.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 6 11 4 9 11
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,113 2,136
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 2.2%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed little changed in currency related trading. The weaker US Dollar has allowed New York to rally. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again but the Coronavirus is still around and consumers are reluctant to buy. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.032 million bags.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2170, 2140, and 2090 September, with resistance at 2280, 2310, and 2350 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1520, 1510, and 1480 September, with resistance at 1600, 1660, and 1700 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 255,974
: Positions :
: 21,316 51,310 57,330 104,986 114,236 58,524 24,900 242,156 247,775: 13,818 8,200
: Changes from: July 14, 2020 (Change in open interest: 3,431) :
: 895 482 -7,711 8,601 8,690 1,053 2,282 2,838 3,743: 593 -312
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 20.0 22.4 41.0 44.6 22.9 9.7 94.6 96.8: 5.4 3.2
: Total Traders: 224 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 66 71 53 44 36 21 187 167:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/21/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
302,429 180,888 190,798 37,997 12,455 11,086
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.8% 63.1% 12.6% 4.1% 3.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
140 48 42 12 7 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,400 30,978 13,601 3,483 2,010 38,005
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 10.2% 4.5% 1.2% 0.7% 12.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
14 24 12 12 10 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,969 3,496
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.3% 1.2%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322