Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Cotton closed lower on the back of the poor weekly export sales report. US Cotton relies on export sales for the major part of its disappearance and the sales are not coming right now. Economic improvement in the US is in doubt as Coronavirus cases surged higher in states that had reopened. Many other countries are still having outbreaks of the Coronavirus too. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. Europe is in better shape, but Coronavirus is returning to some areas there as well. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and Southeast will get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 57.39 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 7,807 bales, from 7,807 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6160, 6110, and 6090 December, with resistance of 6270, 6320 and 6370 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Jul 23
As of Jul 17. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Jul 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 38,473 38,179 294 24,507 24,401 106
Mar 21 21,435 21,270 165 7,436 7,122 314
May 21 8,150 7,753 397 1,133 1,057 76
Jul 21 13,465 13,208 257 3,227 3,240 -13
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 6,925 7,207 -282 10,233 11,711 -1,478
Mar 22 1,155 1,155 0 172 172 0
May 22 100 100 0 0 0 0
Jul 22 50 50 0 220 220 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 227 227 0
Jul 23 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 227 227 0
Mar 24 0 0 0 441 441 0
Total 89,753 88,922 831 48,043 49,038 -995
Open Open Change
Jul 20 0 16 -16
Oct 20 154 157 -3
Dec 20 120,665 121,556 -891
Mar 21 26,272 25,364 908
May 21 7,211 7,034 177
Jul 21 8,203 7,737 466
Oct 21 1 1 0
Dec 21 12,844 13,848 -1,004
Mar 22 217 90 127
May 22 3 3 0
Jul 22 6 6 0
Dec 22 3 3 0
Jul 23 0 0 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Mar 24 0 0 0
Total 175,579 175,815 -236
General Comments: FCOJ was lower but held to the trading range. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand, but inventories are creeping lower. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. The tree condition is called good. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. The harvest is active in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 121.00, 128.00, and 115.00 September, with resistance at 128.00, 131.00, and 132.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were a little lower yesterday but chart trends are still up for at least the short term in both markets. London Robusta futures have been the leader to the upside. Demand overall remains down with the US still locking down due to the Coronavirus resurgence in some states. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. Europe is emerging from lock downs. Europe is in better shape but demand is down there as Coronavirus has returned. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Even so, the pickers are showing up for work and ports are operating normally. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Vietnam had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop. Ideas are that Vietnamese producers are not really offering at this time.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.597 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 106.99 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,497 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 111.00 September. Support is at 105.00, 103.00, and 99.00 September, and resistance is at 110.00, 114.00 and 115.00 September. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1310, 1290, and 1270 September, and resistance is at 1370, 1400, and 1430 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed in choppy trading. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market, but getting the Sugar moved is becoming more difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. Brazil mills have shifted part of the crush to Sugar production due to less ethanol demand and ports are said to be operating normally. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1130, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1200, 1230, and 1240 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 343.00, 337.00, and 332.00 October, and resistance is at 360.00, 366.00, and 370.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London were slightly lower. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again, but Coronavirus has been coming back there as well. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.068 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2170, 2140, and 2090 September, with resistance at 2220, 2260, and 2310 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1520, 1510, and 1480 September, with resistance at 1600, 1660, and 1700 September.