About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for July USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed July 1 99.9 99.1- 100.7
Placed in June 103.6 100.1- 107.9
Marketed in June 101.0 98.8- 103.1
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
July 1 in June in June
Allegiant Commodity Group 100.0 103.7 100.9
Allendale Inc. 99.3 102.8 103.1
HedgersEdge 99.7 103.6 102.2
Linn Group 100.2 102.9 99.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.2 104.9 100.7
NFC Markets 99.1 100.1 101.6
Texas A&M Extension 100.7 107.9 100.7
U.S. Commodities 100.0 103.5 100.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower on weaker demand ideas against a growing supply. The Winter Wheat harvest is starting to get complete. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions and futures prices closed lower. All markets felt selling pressure from reports of improving yields in Europe and especially Russia. The yields had been poor but have improved as combines have moved into growing areas that developed under better conditions. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are expected to be high. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 517, 494, and 489 September, with resistance at 540, 552, and 564 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 431, 424, and 418 September, with resistance at 454, 464, and 468 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 510, 508, and 500 September, and resistance is at 518, 520, and 528 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was little changed in very quiet trading as a tropical storm has formed and is aimed at the Louisiana and Texas coasts. The Rice harvest is getting started in southern areas, but the tropical system could impact parts of southern Louisiana and Texas at the end of the week. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are called in good condition now in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Early harvest activities are reported in Texas and southern Louisiana and early field yield reports are very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1201 and 12222 September. Support is at 1176, 1170, and 1167 September, with resistance at 1190, 1210, and 1213 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher on strong demand for the new crop as seen in the weekly export sales report. The weather forecast is generally good for crop development. Rains fell in many of the drier areas of the Midwest in the last week and greatly benefited the crops. Private weather consultants now suggest that just 15% of the crop is too dry. The Midwest is cooler than the last few weeks and some rains are in the forecast. China has seen flooding rains that are thought to have affected Corn production. Meats processors are back and are close to capacity but the backlog of heavyweight cattle and hogs still exists. Demand for gasoline and ethanol could turn static now. Recent reverses by some states on opening orders are hurting demand ideas for ethanol. US Corn prices are still high in the world market so export sales are expected to be less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 322, 316, and 307 September, and resistance is at 330, 336, and 338 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 284, 304, and 3211 September. Support is at 284, 281, and 276 September, and resistance is at 288, 290, and 298 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher on strong demand news. Better Chinese demand is still around as China was a buyer again yesterday. It was a very strong buyer of new crop Soybeans in the weekly export sales report as well. China has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. It also has seen flooding rains that could have affected Soybeans production. Brazil prices have been moving higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time due to rain and cooler temperatures. Many Soybeans appear short in the central Midwest right now, but conditions are improving and the beans are growing.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 252,000 tons of US Soybeans and Philippines bought 133,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 914 and 927 August. Support is at 901, 890, and 885 August, and resistance is at 911, 917, and 921 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 291.00 and 295.00 August. Support is at 287.00, 284.00, and 281.00 August, and resistance is at 292.00, 294.00, and 296.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2960, 2890, and 2850 August, with resistance at 3050, 3100, and 3150 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little higher on ideas of sliding production. The plantations are having trouble getting workers due to the Coronavirus. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola closed a little higher. Speculators were the best buyers and farmers were the best sellers. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain. The crop in the Prairies is rated as 74% good to excellent.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 491.00 November. Support is at 480.00, 475.00, and 470.00 November, with resistance at 487.00, 490.00, and 493.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2930 October. Support is at 2630, 2570, and 2490 October, with resistance at 2710, 2740, and 2770 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry to the south, periods of showers north. Temperatures should average above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +61 Sep +145 Sep +60 Sep +68 Aug N/A N/A
August +61 Sep +60 Sep +70 Aug
September +64 Sep +60 Sep +71 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 23
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 465.60 -18.00 Nov 2020 dn 1.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 500.40 15.00 Nov 2020 up 1.80
Basis: Vancouver 505.40 20.00 Nov 2020 up 1.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 707.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 700.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 657.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 642.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 710.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 702.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 660.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 645.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 670.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 590.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,880.00 +90.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 185.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2615)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 264,912 lots, or 12.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,589 4,627 4,520 4,567 4,644 4,582 -62 230,498 136,136
Nov-20 4,260 4,313 4,248 4,265 4,279 4,270 -9 633 2,086
Jan-21 4,244 4,265 4,216 4,221 4,248 4,237 -11 31,830 52,338
Mar-21 4,253 4,260 4,222 4,223 4,251 4,246 -5 466 349
May-21 4,267 4,280 4,254 4,260 4,263 4,262 -1 1,170 4,895
Jul-21 4,207 4,270 4,206 4,247 4,246 4,250 4 315 424
Corn
Turnover: 1,089,667 lots, or 24.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,240 2,265 2,230 2,264 2,220 2,249 29 723,736 550,088
Nov-20 2,205 2,225 2,192 2,224 2,189 2,208 19 64,892 57,090
Jan-21 2,185 2,217 2,184 2,216 2,173 2,199 26 253,703 629,984
Mar-21 2,181 2,212 2,180 2,212 2,172 2,196 24 4,719 4,462
May-21 2,196 2,227 2,194 2,225 2,189 2,209 20 37,332 204,417
Jul-21 2,209 2,239 2,209 2,237 2,193 2,221 28 5,285 3,697
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,256,223 lots, or 66.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 2,957 2,977 2,933 2,967 2,948 2,950 2 168 1,187
Sep-20 2,955 3,005 2,949 3,000 2,946 2,973 27 1,303,169 948,099
Nov-20 2,973 3,019 2,965 3,014 2,960 2,988 28 56,391 61,475
Dec-20 2,966 3,018 2,964 3,005 2,960 2,981 21 36,663 4,919
Jan-21 2,959 3,010 2,953 3,002 2,946 2,977 31 704,555 1,060,947
Mar-21 2,781 2,815 2,781 2,804 2,780 2,791 11 3,596 4,184
May-21 2,726 2,766 2,726 2,756 2,724 2,743 19 151,523 426,696
Jul-21 2,770 2,774 2,743 2,768 2,736 2,757 21 158 267
Palm Oil
Turnover: 2,395,114 lots, or 13.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 5,676 6,216 5,676 5,872 5,876 5,850 -26 22 2
Sep-20 5,684 5,824 5,642 5,702 5,574 5,734 160 2,104,457 332,888
Oct-20 5,500 5,660 5,492 5,572 5,456 5,582 126 13,507 6,919
Nov-20 5,490 5,592 5,462 5,524 5,420 5,526 106 15,362 3,126
Dec-20 5,466 5,592 5,438 5,488 5,396 5,510 114 15,639 1,537
Jan-21 5,434 5,580 5,398 5,480 5,380 5,488 108 240,687 138,742
Feb-21 5,524 5,526 5,508 5,508 5,424 5,522 98 9 119
Mar-21 5,550 5,550 5,550 5,550 5,462 5,550 88 1 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,384 5,384 5,384 0 0 151
May-21 5,446 5,532 5,390 5,440 5,390 5,460 70 5,427 13,767
Jun-21 5,524 5,540 5,524 5,540 5,430 5,532 102 2 2
Jul-21 5,538 5,538 5,538 5,538 5,408 5,538 130 1 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 771,827 lots, or 48.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 – – – 6,230 6,230 6,230 0 0 3
Sep-20 6,268 6,324 6,186 6,230 6,220 6,270 50 556,362 286,212
Nov-20 6,240 6,310 6,182 6,226 6,208 6,254 46 11,856 10,517
Dec-20 6,212 6,280 6,144 6,178 6,180 6,224 44 9,375 1,841
Jan-21 6,154 6,234 6,108 6,142 6,138 6,178 40 181,071 274,521
Mar-21 6,110 6,170 6,042 6,116 6,116 6,112 -4 5,326 582
May-21 6,100 6,168 6,062 6,076 6,090 6,124 34 7,837 34,869
Jul-21 – – – 6,116 6,084 6,116 32 0 1
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322