Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Jul 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 55.537 million pounds, in June, 7.9% below the previous
month, and 1.6% below June 2019, the U.S. Department Agriculture
In thousand pounds.
Jun 30 May 31 Jun 30 May 31 warehouse
2020 2020 2019 2019 stocks/Jun
pork bellies 55,537 60,322 56,468 64,124
orange juice 830,365 852,684 859,757 884,215
french fries 868,564 895,399 945,264 932,737
other potatoes 216,743 204,029 239,233 240,164
chicken rstr (whole) 23,153 23,533 21,506 19,583
ham 124,301 107,550 168,599 150,109
total pork 464,373 467,927 619,454 628,956 413,332
total beef 428,122 417,356 405,645 405,151 419,363
total red meat 942,493 936,227 1,069,381 1,077,834 880,881
total chicken 854,960 858,236 836,215 834,298
total turkey 473,670 420,129 538,714 494,439
total poultry 1,337,407 1,286,588 1,378,981 1,332,139 1,249,481
General Cotton closed lower on news that the US has asked China to close its consulate in Houston. It was another escalation in the political war between the countries. Economic improvement in the US is in doubt as Coronavirus cases surged higher in states that had reopened. Many other countries are still having outbreaks of the Coronavirus too. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. Europe is in better shape, but Coronavirus is returning to some areas there as well. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and Southeast will get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 58.45 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 7,900 bales, from 8,320 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were -13,100 bales this year and 10,900 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 11,400 bales this year and 400 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6260, 6160, and 6110 December, with resistance of 6320, 6370 and 6490 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher but remains in a trading range. Florida production is now estimated at 67 million boxes, unchanged from last month. California and US production was increased. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand, but inventories are creeping lower. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. The tree condition is called good. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. The harvest is active in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 121.00, 128.00, and 115.00 September, with resistance at 128.00, 131.00, and 132.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday and chart trends have turned up for at least the short term in both markets. London Robusta futures have been the leader to the upside. Changes in the US Dollar Index caused much of the speculative buying. The Dollar is now below 95.00 and trends are down. Demand overall remains down with the US still locking down due to the Coronavirus resurgence in some states. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. Europe is emerging from lock downs. Europe is in better shape but demand is down there as Coronavirus has returned. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Even so, the pickers are showing up for work and ports are operating normally. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Vietnam had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop. Ideas are that Vietnamese producers are not really offering at this time.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 1.597 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 107.93 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,497 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 111.00 September. Support is at 105.00, 103.00, and 99.00 September, and resistance is at 110.00, 114.00 and 115.00 September. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1310, 1290, and 1270 September, and resistance is at 1370, 1400, and 1430 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher as the US Dollar Index broke support at 95.00 and turned trends down. The changes in the Dollar Index caused buying in many commodities markets yesterday from speculators. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market, but getting the Sugar moved is becoming more difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. Brazil mills have shifted part of the crush to Sugar production due to less ethanol demand and ports are said to be operating normally. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1130, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1200, 1230, and 1240 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 343.00, 337.00, and 332.00 October, and resistance is at 360.00, 366.00, and 370.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London were higher as the US Dollar Index turned lower. New York was the leader to the upside due to the currency relationship changes. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again, but Coronavirus has been coming back there as well. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.068 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2270 and 2370 September. Support is at 2170, 2140, and 2090 September, with resistance at 2220, 2260, and 2310 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1520, 1510, and 1480 September, with resistance at 1600, 1660, and 1700 September.