About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for July USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed July 1 99.9 99.1- 100.7
Placed in June 103.6 100.1- 107.9
Marketed in June 101.0 98.8- 103.1
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
July 1 in June in June
Allegiant Commodity Group 100.0 103.7 100.9
Allendale Inc. 99.3 102.8 103.1
HedgersEdge 99.7 103.6 102.2
Linn Group 100.2 102.9 99.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.2 104.9 100.7
NFC Markets 99.1 100.1 101.6
Texas A&M Extension 100.7 107.9 100.7
U.S. Commodities 100.0 103.5 100.0

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Jul 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 55.537 million pounds, in June, 7.9% below the previous
month, and 1.6% below June 2019, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Wednesday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Jun 30 May 31 Jun 30 May 31 warehouse
2020 2020 2019 2019 stocks/Jun
pork bellies 55,537 60,322 56,468 64,124
orange juice 830,365 852,684 859,757 884,215
french fries 868,564 895,399 945,264 932,737
other potatoes 216,743 204,029 239,233 240,164
chicken rstr (whole) 23,153 23,533 21,506 19,583
ham 124,301 107,550 168,599 150,109
total pork 464,373 467,927 619,454 628,956 413,332
total beef 428,122 417,356 405,645 405,151 419,363
total red meat 942,493 936,227 1,069,381 1,077,834 880,881
total chicken 854,960 858,236 836,215 834,298
total turkey 473,670 420,129 538,714 494,439
total poultry 1,337,407 1,286,588 1,378,981 1,332,139 1,249,481
===============================================================================

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 23
For the week ended Jul 16, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 616.7 0.0 8941.3 8494.1 5516.5 0.0
hrw 130.5 0.0 3313.6 3402.0 1695.6 0.0
srw 146.0 0.0 889.2 1135.7 675.6 0.0
hrs 156.3 0.0 2608.4 2119.6 1770.1 0.0
white 148.8 0.0 1768.4 1479.6 1172.2 0.0
durum 35.1 0.0 361.8 357.1 203.0 0.0
corn 220.6 2327.2 43710.3 49742.3 6678.2 7688.9
soybeans 365.2 2300.5 46672.9 48581.9 7865.4 10387.0
soymeal 45.3 54.2 11410.2 11470.9 1719.0 524.3
soyoil 20.2 0.0 1244.1 829.3 225.2 11.0
upland cotton -13.1 10.9 17006.2 15533.1 3542.8 3536.8
pima cotton 11.4 0.4 594.4 722.8 135.6 38.0
sorghum 77.2 175.0 4360.3 1653.3 802.2 821.0
barley 0.0 0.0 38.7 51.7 36.6 0.0
rice 12.9 0.0 3364.4 3535.3 294.9 75.3

DJ IGC Cuts Wheat, Corn Production Forecasts
By Will Horner
Wheat and corn harvests next year will be slightly lower than expected, the International Grains Council said Thursday, leading it to cut its forecast for total grains production.
The IGC in its monthly report said the 2020-21 grains harvest is estimated to yield 2.225 billion metric tons, 13 million tons less than the intergovernmental body expected last month.
The revision is driven by smaller-than-expected wheat and corn harvest, the IGC said. It said global wheat harvests would produce 762 million tons, six million tons less than its previous estimate, and corn harvests would produce 1.164 billion tons, five million tons less than previous estimates.
Despite the downgrade, the IGC still expects next year’s harvest to be the largest on record and 48 million tons larger than this year’s. The change means the IGC now expects carryover stocks to be 625 million tons next year, 10 million tons less than previous forecasts though still the largest since the 2017-18 season.
The IGC left its forecast for consumption and trade broadly unchanged.

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher on changes in the US Dollar Index. The index fell below 95.00 in the September contract and trends in the index are down. The moves in the index help US grains prices get more competitive overseas. The Winter Wheat harvest is starting to get complete. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions and futures prices closed lower. All markets felt selling pressure from reports of improving yields in Europe and especially Russia. The yields had been poor but have improved as combines have moved into growing areas that developed under better conditions. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are expected to be high. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 531, 517, and 494 September, with resistance at 540, 552, and 564 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 444, 432, and 430 September, with resistance at 454, 464, and 468 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 513, 510, and 508 September, and resistance is at 518, 520, and 528 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher as a tropical storm has formed and is aimed at the Louisiana and Texas coasts. The Rice harvest is getting started in southern areas, but the tropical system could impact parts of southern Louisiana and Texas at the end of the week. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast and are called in good condition now in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Early harvest activities are reported in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1201 and 12222 September. Support is at 1176, 1170, and 1167 September, with resistance at 1190, 1210, and 1213 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on changes in the US Dollar Index. The index fell below 95.00 in the September contract and trends are down. The currency changes help uS competitiveness in the world market. Rains fell in many of the drier areas of the Midwest in the last week and greatly benefited the crops. Private weather consultants now suggest that just 15% of the crop is too dry. The Midwest is cooler than the last few weeks and some rains are in the forecast. There have also been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are close to capacity but the backlog of heavyweight cattle and hogs still exists. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger but could turn static now. Recent reverses by some states on opening orders are hurting demand ideas for ethanol. US Corn prices are still high in the world market so export sales are expected to be less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 330, 322, and 316 September, and resistance is at 336, 338, and 340 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 276, 271, and 268 September, and resistance is at 285, 288, and 290 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little higher on changes in the US Dollar Index and better demand news. The Dollar Index fell below 95.00 in the September contract and trends are down. The currency changes help US sales in the world market. Better Chinese demand is still around as China was a buyer again yesterday. China has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. However, the US has ordered China to close is consulate in Houston so demand worries continue. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been moving higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time due to rain and cooler temperatures. Many Soybeans appear short in the central Midwest right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 890, 885, and 882 August, and resistance is at 905, 910, and 917 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 280.00 and 277.00 August. Support is at 284.00, 279.00, and 276.00 August, and resistance is at 290.00, 292.00, and 296.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3100 August. Support is at 2960, 2890, and 2850 August, with resistance at 3050, 3100, and 3150 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little higher on ideas of sliding production. The plantations are having trouble getting workers due to the Coronavirus. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola closed a little lower as the Canadian Dollar rallied. Speculators were the best buyers and farmers were the best sellers. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain. The crop in the {Prairies is rated as 74% good to excellent.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 491.00 November. Support is at 480.00, 475.00, and 470.00 November, with resistance at 487.00, 490.00, and 493.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2930 October. Support is at 2630, 2570, and 2490 October, with resistance at 2710, 2740, and 2770 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry to the south, periods of showers north. Temperatures should average above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +61 Sep +145 Sep +60 Sep +68 Aug N/A N/A
August +61 Sep +60 Sep +70 Aug
September +64 Sep +60 Sep +71 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 22
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 466.70 -18.00 Nov 2020 dn 0.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 498.60 15.00 Nov 2020 dn 1.10
Basis: Vancouver 503.60 20.00 Nov 2020 dn 1.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 692.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 675.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 647.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 635.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 695.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 677.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 650.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 637.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 655.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 575.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,790.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 183.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2570)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 376,149 lots, or 17.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,675 4,727 4,562 4,589 4,645 4,644 -1 330,622 149,553
Nov-20 4,278 4,315 4,243 4,273 4,267 4,279 12 1,288 2,141
Jan-21 4,250 4,283 4,220 4,250 4,244 4,248 4 40,418 53,340
Mar-21 4,244 4,276 4,209 4,252 4,243 4,251 8 1,315 329
May-21 4,265 4,298 4,238 4,267 4,264 4,263 -1 1,198 4,689
Jul-21 4,136 4,280 4,134 4,251 4,268 4,246 -22 1,308 450
Corn
Turnover: 1,260,104 lots, or 27.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,190 2,246 2,190 2,240 2,187 2,220 33 890,817 555,222
Nov-20 2,167 2,215 2,167 2,209 2,163 2,189 26 55,100 56,630
Jan-21 2,153 2,196 2,152 2,186 2,151 2,173 22 253,618 582,352
Mar-21 2,160 2,188 2,159 2,180 2,154 2,172 18 3,082 4,326
May-21 2,169 2,205 2,169 2,197 2,171 2,189 18 52,170 198,288
Jul-21 2,184 2,212 2,184 2,207 2,188 2,193 5 5,317 3,465
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,813,546 lots, or 53.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 2,944 2,954 2,916 2,953 2,929 2,948 19 80 1,197
Sep-20 2,940 2,966 2,925 2,957 2,916 2,946 30 1,146,701 979,254
Nov-20 2,942 2,977 2,937 2,969 2,933 2,960 27 48,465 62,257
Dec-20 2,944 2,977 2,941 2,967 2,934 2,960 26 35,459 5,068
Jan-21 2,940 2,964 2,929 2,956 2,925 2,946 21 480,736 1,016,020
Mar-21 2,770 2,789 2,770 2,781 2,768 2,780 12 2,867 4,086
May-21 2,720 2,737 2,716 2,728 2,714 2,724 10 99,187 404,343
Jul-21 2,731 2,744 2,731 2,744 2,729 2,736 7 51 282
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,883,289 lots, or 10.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 – – – 5,876 5,876 5,876 0 0 4
Sep-20 5,532 5,696 5,480 5,684 5,562 5,574 12 1,657,444 356,226
Oct-20 5,448 5,510 5,388 5,492 5,500 5,456 -44 6,351 7,246
Nov-20 5,392 5,488 5,348 5,470 5,482 5,420 -62 10,600 2,516
Dec-20 5,380 5,494 5,324 5,440 5,444 5,396 -48 8,119 1,345
Jan-21 5,374 5,450 5,310 5,438 5,410 5,380 -30 196,222 143,927
Feb-21 – – – 5,424 5,424 5,424 0 0 118
Mar-21 – – – 5,462 5,462 5,462 0 0 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,384 5,368 5,384 16 0 151
May-21 5,372 5,442 5,328 5,424 5,422 5,390 -32 4,553 13,684
Jun-21 – – – 5,430 5,342 5,430 88 0 0
Jul-21 – – – 5,408 5,440 5,408 -32 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 682,366 lots, or 42.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 6,232 6,232 6,230 6,230 6,560 6,230 -330 4 3
Sep-20 6,180 6,276 6,130 6,268 6,248 6,220 -28 483,096 289,426
Nov-20 6,194 6,262 6,132 6,262 6,244 6,208 -36 6,193 9,884
Dec-20 6,156 6,220 6,110 6,218 6,232 6,180 -52 6,702 1,505
Jan-21 6,130 6,184 6,070 6,168 6,182 6,138 -44 177,279 271,388
Mar-21 6,106 6,180 6,062 6,096 6,122 6,116 -6 1,597 678
May-21 6,066 6,124 6,020 6,104 6,124 6,090 -34 7,490 32,605
Jul-21 6,080 6,096 6,078 6,096 6,164 6,084 -80 5 1
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322