About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for July USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed July 1 99.9 99.1- 100.7
Placed in June 103.6 100.1- 107.9
Marketed in June 101.0 98.8- 103.1
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
July 1 in June in June
Allegiant Commodity Group 100.0 103.7 100.9
Allendale Inc. 99.3 102.8 103.1
HedgersEdge 99.7 103.6 102.2
Linn Group 100.2 102.9 99.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.2 104.9 100.7
NFC Markets 99.1 100.1 101.6
Texas A&M Extension 100.7 107.9 100.7
U.S. Commodities 100.0 103.5 100.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher as demand for world Wheat was noted from Jordan and Egypt. The Egyptian tender was filled by Ukraine at prices below those of its previous purchase from Russia. The Winter Wheat harvest is starting to get complete. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions and futures prices closed lower. Trends are down in all three markets in the daily charts. All markets felt selling pressure from reports of improving yields in Europe and especially Russia. The yields had been poor but have improved as combines have moved into growing areas that developed under better conditions. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are expected to be high. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 511 and 496 September. Support is at 517, 494, and 489 September, with resistance at 531, 534, and 540 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 422 and 399 September. Support is at 432, 430, and 418 September, with resistance at 454, 464, and 468 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 468 September. Support is at 500, 498, and 492 September, and resistance is at 518, 520, and 528 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was little changed. The Rice harvest is getting started in southern areas, but a tropical system could impact parts of southern Louisiana and Texas at the end of the week. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast and are called in good condition now in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Early harvest activities are reported in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1170, 1167, and 1147 September, with resistance at 1190, 1210, and 1213 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jul 22
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.72 11.19 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.37 11.93 0.00
Brokens 11.24 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower in response to better growing conditions in the Midwest. Rains fell in many of the drier areas of the Midwest in the last week and greatly benefited the crops. Private weather consultants now suggest that just 15% of the crop is too dry. The Midwest is cooler than the last few weeks and some rains are in the forecast. There have also been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are close to capacity but the backlog of heavyweight cattle and hogs still exists. Ethanol demand is also improving as lock down orders are lifter in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger but could turn static now. Recent reverses by some states on opening orders are hurting demand ideas for ethanol. US Corn prices are high in the world market so export sales are expected to be less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 322, 316, and 307 September, and resistance is at 330, 336, and 340 September. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 276, 271, and 268 September, and resistance is at 285, 288, and 290 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little lower as the US weather improved for growing Soybeans. Better Chinese demand is still around as China was a buyer again yesterday after buying most of last week. China has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time due to rain and cooler temperatures. Many Soybeans appear short in the central Midwest right now.
Overnight News: China bought 453,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 211,300 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 890, 885, and 882 August, and resistance is at 905, 910, and 917 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 280.00 and 277.00 August. Support is at 284.00, 279.00, and 276.00 August, and resistance is at 290.00, 292.00, and 296.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3100 August. Support is at 2920, 2890, and 2850 August, with resistance at 3050, 3100, and 3150 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little higher after trading much higher earlier in the session. The market got worried about renewed Chinese-American tensions at the end of the day. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola closed a little lower on Chicago price action. Speculators were the best buyers and farmers were the best sellers. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 491.00 November. Support is at 480.00, 475.00, and 470.00 November, with resistance at 487.00, 490.00, and 493.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2930 October. Support is at 2570, 2490, and 2450 October, with resistance at 2690, 2710, and 2740 October.

DJ Malaysia July 1-20 Palm Oil Exports Down 10.5% -SGS
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the July 1-20 period are estimated down 10.5% on month at 1,089,021 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
July 1-20 June 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 309,762 455,285
RBD Palm Oil 80,732 106,665
RBD Palm Stearin 79,810 105,722
Crude Palm Oil 319,232 242,874
Total* 1,089,021 1,217,356

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry to the south, periods of showers north. Temperatures should average above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +61 Sep +145 Sep +60 Sep +68 Aug N/A N/A
August +61 Sep +60 Sep +70 Aug
September +64 Sep +60 Sep +71 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 21
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, July 21 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 467.30 -18.00 Nov 2020 up 1.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 499.70 15.00 Nov 2020 dn 0.60
Basis: Vancouver 504.70 20.00 Nov 2020 dn 0.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 682.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 670.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 642.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 630.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 685.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 672.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 645.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 632.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 660.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 570.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,750.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 183.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2540)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 442,589 lots, or 20.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,634 4,750 4,554 4,670 4,639 4,645 6 390,979 134,547
Nov-20 4,282 4,315 4,216 4,278 4,277 4,267 -10 1,523 2,169
Jan-21 4,249 4,285 4,201 4,239 4,249 4,244 -5 46,932 56,245
Mar-21 4,242 4,285 4,201 4,232 4,257 4,243 -14 927 424
May-21 4,279 4,298 4,236 4,267 4,275 4,264 -11 1,544 4,625
Jul-21 4,266 4,305 4,244 4,248 4,271 4,268 -3 684 367
Corn
Turnover: 706,234 lots, or 15.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,181 2,203 2,172 2,189 2,180 2,187 7 469,830 528,481
Nov-20 2,158 2,176 2,153 2,170 2,158 2,163 5 60,410 55,458
Jan-21 2,147 2,157 2,143 2,152 2,148 2,151 3 119,736 536,270
Mar-21 2,156 2,161 2,148 2,158 2,154 2,154 0 3,915 4,074
May-21 2,170 2,177 2,165 2,169 2,170 2,171 1 36,735 183,930
Jul-21 2,186 2,194 2,184 2,186 2,191 2,188 -3 15,608 3,224
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,099,823 lots, or 32.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 2,933 2,934 2,910 2,915 2,933 2,929 -4 50 1,254
Sep-20 2,915 2,930 2,906 2,928 2,937 2,916 -21 707,007 996,719
Nov-20 2,922 2,946 2,922 2,941 2,950 2,933 -17 34,917 62,577
Dec-20 2,932 2,951 2,926 2,944 2,951 2,934 -17 27,644 6,539
Jan-21 2,922 2,939 2,915 2,933 2,937 2,925 -12 274,952 994,932
Mar-21 2,762 2,774 2,761 2,770 2,771 2,768 -3 491 3,908
May-21 2,712 2,720 2,710 2,718 2,717 2,714 -3 54,701 391,954
Jul-21 2,728 2,736 2,728 2,734 2,731 2,729 -2 61 306
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,838,083 lots, or 10.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 – – – 5,876 5,876 5,876 0 0 4
Sep-20 5,498 5,634 5,488 5,522 5,474 5,562 88 1,628,038 334,804
Oct-20 5,430 5,574 5,414 5,422 5,394 5,500 106 8,557 7,279
Nov-20 5,438 5,548 5,380 5,398 5,394 5,482 88 11,244 2,433
Dec-20 5,394 5,506 5,340 5,366 5,364 5,444 80 10,647 1,468
Jan-21 5,356 5,472 5,350 5,358 5,346 5,410 64 174,442 145,757
Feb-21 5,388 5,462 5,388 5,462 5,436 5,424 -12 2 118
Mar-21 – – – 5,462 5,462 5,462 0 0 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,368 5,368 5,368 0 0 151
May-21 5,400 5,476 5,368 5,374 5,388 5,422 34 5,153 14,060
Jun-21 – – – 5,342 5,310 5,342 32 0 0
Jul-21 – – – 5,440 5,414 5,440 26 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 750,491 lots, or 46.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 6,576 6,576 6,518 6,518 6,192 6,560 368 4 7
Sep-20 6,194 6,320 6,172 6,180 6,174 6,248 74 546,759 298,136
Nov-20 6,192 6,330 6,162 6,182 6,174 6,244 70 6,917 9,818
Dec-20 6,168 6,288 6,148 6,160 6,162 6,232 70 7,924 1,618
Jan-21 6,130 6,246 6,106 6,114 6,134 6,182 48 177,754 276,036
Mar-21 6,096 6,190 6,078 6,092 6,076 6,122 46 4,111 650
May-21 6,088 6,174 6,048 6,062 6,094 6,124 30 7,022 30,200
Jul-21 – – – 6,164 6,134 6,164 30 0 1
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322