About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Cotton closed was higher on bad growing conditions continued in West Texas. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. However, economic improvement in the US was thrown into doubt as Coronavirus cases surged higher in states that had reopened. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. Europe is in better shape, but Coronavirus is returning to some areas there as well. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry condition. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 58.70 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,320 bales, from 18,484 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 436 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6160, 6110, and 6090 December, with resistance of 6320, 6370 and 6490 December.

Crop Progress
Date 12-Jul 5-Jul 2019 Avg
Cotton Squaring 73 63 73 75
Cotton Setting Bolls 27 18 29 32
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 5 17 31 39 8
Cotton Last Week 4 22 30 36 8
Cotton Last Year 2 8 30 50 10

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower. The fundamentals remain mostly positive for prices, but the price action suggests that the bullish fundamentals are part of the price. Florida production is now estimated at 67 million boxes, unchanged from last month. California and US production was increased. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand, but inventories are creeping lower. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. The tree condition is called good. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. The harvest is active in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 121.00, 128.00, and 115.00 September, with resistance at 128.00, 131.00, and 132.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday but chart trends have turned up for at least the short term with the price action on Friday. London Robusta futures have been the leader to the upside. Demand overall remains down with the US still locking down due to the Coronavirus resurgence in some states. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. Europe is emerging from lock downs. Europe is in better shape but demand is down there as Coronavirus has returned. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Even so, the pickers are showing up for work and ports are operating normally. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. Vietnam also had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.594 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 101.10 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions or isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 106 contracts were delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,462 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 97.00, and 93.00 September, and resistance is at 103.00, 105.00 and 106.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1250 and 1300 September. Support is at 1270, 1250, and 1240 September, and resistance is at 1300, 1320, and 1350 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed mixed to slightly higher and London closed a little lower. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market, but getting the Sugar moved is becoming more difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. Brazil mills have shifted part of the crush to Sugar production due to less ethanol demand and ports are said to be operating normally. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well. .
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1130, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1200, 1230, and 1240 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 337.00, 332.00, and 330.00 October, and resistance is at 356.00, 360.00, and 366.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York was high and London closed mixed. The European grind was down almost 9% and the North American grind was lower as well, but the bad demand news is apparently part of the market now. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again, but Coronavirus has been coming back there as well. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 4.070 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 441 contracts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2270 and 2370 September. Support is at 2170, 2140, and 2090 September, with resistance at 2220, 220, and 2310 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1540, 1520, and 1510 September, with resistance at 1580, 1600, and 1660 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322