About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for July USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed July 1 99.9 99.1- 100.7
Placed in June 103.6 100.1- 107.9
Marketed in June 101.0 98.8- 103.1
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
July 1 in June in June
Allegiant Commodity Group 100.0 103.7 100.9
Allendale Inc. 99.3 102.8 103.1
HedgersEdge 99.7 103.6 102.2
Linn Group 100.2 102.9 99.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.2 104.9 100.7
NFC Markets 99.1 100.1 101.6
Texas A&M Extension 100.7 107.9 100.7
U.S. Commodities 100.0 103.5 100.0

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 20
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 16, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/16/2020 07/09/2020 07/18/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 49 0 0 416 2,007
CORN 1,149,353 917,968 438,544 36,348,023 43,610,204
FLAXSEED 0 24 0 317 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 0 0 500 299
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 71,965 71,265 61,344 4,211,400 1,831,602
SOYBEANS 452,811 483,331 563,042 38,315,021 39,282,631
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 500,607 659,727 447,288 3,575,182 3,408,348
Total 2,174,885 2,132,315 1,510,218 82,450,859 88,135,115
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 12-Jul 5-Jul 2019 Avg
Cotton Squaring 73 63 73 75
Cotton Setting Bolls 27 18 29 32
Corn Silking 59 29 30 54
Coen Dough 9 3 4 7
Soybeans Blooming 64 48 35 57
Soybeans Setting Pods 25 11 6 21
Sorghum Headed 34 27 26 34
Sorghum Coloring 19 15 15 19
Rice Headed 32 24 29 39
Peanuts Pegging 77 66 75 75
Oats Headed 96 93 92 97
Oats Harvested 20 12 11 19
Winter Wheat Harvested 74 68 66 75
Spring Wheat Headed 91 80 88 94
Barley Headed 88 75 86 96

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 5 17 31 39 8
Cotton Last Week 4 22 30 36 8
Cotton Last Year 2 8 30 50 10

Spring Wheat This Week 2 5 25 55 13
Spring Wheat Last Week 2 6 24 57 11
Spring Wheat Last Year 0 4 20 63 13

Corn This Week 2 6 23 52 17
Corn Last Week 2 6 23 52 17
Corn Last Year 3 10 30 47 10

Soybeans This Week 2 5 24 54 15
Soybeans Last Week 2 5 25 54 14
Soybeans Last Year 3 9 34 46 8

Sorghum This Week 3 9 37 43 8
Sorghum Last Week 3 13 38 39 7
Sorghum Last Year 1 2 24 60 13

Rice This Week 0 3 24 57 16
Rice Last Week 0 2 24 56 18
Rice Last Year 1 6 28 46 19

Peanuts This Week 1 6 22 60 11
Peanuts Last Week 1 6 20 65 8
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 25 62 9

Oats This Week 2 8 29 52 9
Oats Last Week 2 8 29 50 11
Oats Last Year 3 5 28 52 12

Barley This Week 0 4 21 48 27
Barley Last Week 1 4 26 46 23
Barley Last Year 0 5 19 58 18

Pastures and Ranges This Week 12 22 31 30 9
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 11 19 34 31 9
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 2 7 25 53 13

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were sharply lower as the Winter Wheat harvest expanded north and started to get complete. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions and futures prices closed lower. Trends are down in all three markets in the daily charts. All markets felt selling pressure from reports of improving yields in Europe and especially Russia. The yields had been poor but have improved as combines have moved into growing areas that developed under better conditions. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are expected to be high. The Winter Wheat markets are in up trends on the weekly charts. Spring Wheat markets show down trends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 511 and 496 September. Support is at 494, 489, and 482 September, with resistance at 531, 534, and 540 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 422 and 399 September. Support is at 432, 430, and 418 September, with resistance at 445, 454, and 464 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 469 September. Support is at 500, 498, and 492 September, and resistance is at 518, 520, and 528 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was little changed. The Rice harvest is getting started in southern areas, but a tropical system could impact parts of southern Louisiana and Texas at the end of the week. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast and are called in good condition now in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Early harvest activities are reported in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1170, 1167, and 1147 September, with resistance at 1190, 1210, and 1213 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower in response to weekend rains in parts of the Midwest. It is still a weather market. Rains fell in many of the drier areas of the Midwest last week and greatly benefited the crops. Private weather consultants now suggest that just 15% of the crop is too dry. The Midwest is cooler than the last few weeks and some rains are in the forecast. There have also been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are close to capacity. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices are stable or falling. Ethanol demand is also improving as lock down orders are lifter in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time. Recent reverses by some states on opening orders are hurting demand ideas for ethanol. US prices are high in the world market so export sales are expected to be less.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 207,880 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 326, 322, and 316 September, and resistance is at 336, 340, and 346 September. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 276, 271, and 268 September, and resistance is at 285, 288, and 290 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little higher on better Chinese demand as China was a buyer again yesterday after buying most of last week. China has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time due to rain and cooler temperatures. Many Soybeans appear short in the central Midwest right now.
Overnight News: China bought 126,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 180,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 890, 885, and 882 August, and resistance is at 905, 910, and 917 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 280.00 and 277.00 August. Support is at 284.00, 279.00, and 276.00 August, and resistance is at 290.00, 292.00, and 296.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3100 August. Support is at 2920, 2890, and 2850 August, with resistance at 3050, 3100, and 3150 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower in sympathy with price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola closed higher as Palm Oil was very strong. Canola has found support from the weaker Canadian Dollar and ideas that not all areas were in good shape. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 491.00 November. Support is at 484.00, 480.00, and 475.00 November, with resistance at 487.00, 490.00, and 493.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2930 October. Support is at 2570, 2490, and 2450 October, with resistance at 2680, 2710, and 2740 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry to the south, periods of showers north. Temperatures should average above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +60 Sep +145 Sep +60 Sep +66 Aug N/A N/A
August +60 Sep +60 Sep +68 Aug
September +63 Sep +60 Sep +70 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 20
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 465.50 -18.00 Nov 2020 up 4.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 500.30 15.00 Nov 2020 up 1.80
Basis: Vancouver 505.30 20.00 Nov 2020 up 1.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 672.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 660.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 637.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 627.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 675.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 662.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 640.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 630.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 650.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 565.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,730.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 181.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2605)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 239,229 lots, or 10.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,642 4,668 4,609 4,624 4,686 4,639 -47 210,786 133,347
Nov-20 4,268 4,303 4,245 4,270 4,286 4,277 -9 1,188 2,129
Jan-21 4,266 4,271 4,234 4,243 4,267 4,249 -18 24,895 53,184
Mar-21 4,252 4,271 4,237 4,239 4,276 4,257 -19 387 406
May-21 4,292 4,294 4,264 4,269 4,281 4,275 -6 1,185 4,670
Jul-21 4,253 4,285 4,253 4,267 4,281 4,271 -10 788 316
Corn
Turnover: 688,590 lots, or 14.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,186 2,193 2,167 2,181 2,183 2,180 -3 480,011 534,259
Nov-20 2,162 2,168 2,152 2,157 2,162 2,158 -4 53,746 54,934
Jan-21 2,150 2,156 2,142 2,149 2,150 2,148 -2 123,903 524,552
Mar-21 2,155 2,160 2,149 2,153 2,155 2,154 -1 3,305 4,072
May-21 2,171 2,177 2,165 2,170 2,172 2,170 -2 21,285 179,149
Jul-21 2,188 2,200 2,182 2,185 2,190 2,191 1 6,340 2,372
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,827,691 lots, or 53.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 2,895 2,949 2,895 2,923 2,900 2,933 33 85 1,295
Sep-20 2,919 2,959 2,904 2,911 2,906 2,937 31 1,240,403 1,001,038
Nov-20 2,934 2,971 2,922 2,925 2,924 2,950 26 52,908 60,463
Dec-20 2,936 2,965 2,926 2,933 2,924 2,951 27 25,485 8,115
Jan-21 2,925 2,952 2,918 2,922 2,915 2,937 22 430,486 970,517
Mar-21 2,765 2,782 2,761 2,766 2,760 2,771 11 4,918 3,916
May-21 2,712 2,727 2,710 2,713 2,710 2,717 7 73,302 382,264
Jul-21 2,736 2,738 2,726 2,728 2,726 2,731 5 104 281
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,844,372 lots, or 10.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 – – – 5,876 5,876 5,876 0 0 4
Sep-20 5,560 5,562 5,402 5,506 5,532 5,474 -58 1,648,353 351,419
Oct-20 5,464 5,474 5,334 5,440 5,462 5,394 -68 8,573 7,197
Nov-20 5,488 5,528 5,336 5,426 5,440 5,394 -46 7,709 2,561
Dec-20 5,402 5,426 5,310 5,390 5,422 5,364 -58 14,471 1,343
Jan-21 5,408 5,414 5,294 5,362 5,382 5,346 -36 163,421 138,856
Feb-21 5,436 5,436 5,436 5,436 5,436 5,436 0 1 119
Mar-21 – – – 5,462 5,462 5,462 0 0 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,368 5,368 5,368 0 0 151
May-21 5,448 5,448 5,342 5,410 5,442 5,388 -54 1,844 13,596
Jun-21 – – – 5,310 5,310 5,310 0 0 0
Jul-21 – – – 5,414 5,414 5,414 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 613,943 lots, or 37.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 6,192 6,192 6,192 6,192 6,390 6,192 -198 1 3
Sep-20 6,246 6,252 6,112 6,196 6,206 6,174 -32 443,144 296,921
Nov-20 6,058 6,248 6,058 6,198 6,210 6,174 -36 5,439 9,833
Dec-20 6,160 6,242 6,110 6,182 6,204 6,162 -42 5,534 1,577
Jan-21 6,188 6,194 6,082 6,150 6,172 6,134 -38 148,997 273,164
Mar-21 6,084 6,106 6,036 6,080 6,134 6,076 -58 6,456 670
May-21 6,134 6,138 6,050 6,104 6,134 6,094 -40 4,371 27,840
Jul-21 6,134 6,134 6,134 6,134 6,152 6,134 -18 1 1
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322