William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
Sept Beans rode a solid week of Chinese Exports to a weekly gains of 7 cents re-establishing it as the clear-cut upside leader in the grain complex! Daily sales of 132,000 – 126,000 – 527,000 – 351,000 & 129,000 MT were in sync with Phase One commitments! Whereas bearish weather capped Corn’s rally as it enters pollination – beans critical pod-filling stage doesn’t occur until early August so the jury’s is still out as to the weather then! The outside mkts are still leaning positive with the DJI holding an 8000 point rally off its March lows & the US Dollar some 80 points off its March highs! Plus there’s no weather premium!
With pollination commencing in most areas, Sept Corn has been especially sensitive to the current weather – which has turned from “hot & dry” to “warm & wet”! So any promising rallies inspired by solid exports have been quickly capped by bearish weather forecasts & events! In the past 10 days, China has bought over 3 MMT of US Corn but the mkt has disappointingly responded in a very lackluster fashion – stubbornly remaining in its 3-month range (315-355)! Another issue is ethanol demand – which has been hurt by the stalled economic recovery due to the Covid Resurgence! But we still subscribe to the old commodity axiom – LOW PRICES CURE LOW PRICES – and we strongly feel much of the bad fundamental news is dialed in!
The Sept Wht contract has been the victim of high expectations regarding China exports of US SRWW – and when the sales didn’t materialize, the mkt basically fell apart after a very promising 80 cent rally (470 – 550)! An accomplice to the collapse was of course the bearish weather descending upon the Corn Belt in the past week! However, potential European Production issues – including the Black Sea & Russia still are on the table – but it sure feels like the Wht Mkt will need a big assist from Corn & Beans to mount another upside charge!
Aug Cat was unable to extend its rally from Friday for three reasons
- A hefty $11 premium to cash when the average is a $4 discount
- A burdensome supply of all meat due in the 3rd Qtr
- The pesky resurgence of Covid – dampening the economic recovery as well as red meat demand
The mkt clearly needs for the economic recovery to resume full speed for it to resume its up!
Much like Aug Cat, Aug Hog’s up-move was sabotaged by burdensome pork production – up 12% over last week & 9% over 2 weeks ago! As well, the premium price structure has a lot of good news built in! The mkt needs continuing export support from China & a resumption of the re-opening of US restaurants – to emerge from its lows!!Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337