About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Cotton closed drifted lower on demand concerns as bad growing conditions continued in West Texas. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. However, economic improvement in the US was thrown into doubt as Coronavirus cases surged higher in states that had reopened. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry condition. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 57.72 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 18,484 bales, from 19,898 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 436 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 6000 and 5760 December. Support is at 6140, 6110, and 6090 December, with resistance of 6320, 6370 and 6490 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 14, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 210,440
: Positions :
: 37,626 15,374 43,527 41,264 135,156 76,101 7,575 198,517 201,631: 11,923 8,809
: Changes from: July 7, 2020 (Change in open interest: 6,654) :
: 4,444 -2,488 2,793 -1,301 5,671 1,379 -358 7,316 5,618: -662 1,036
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.9 7.3 20.7 19.6 64.2 36.2 3.6 94.3 95.8: 5.7 4.2
: Total Traders: 256 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 50 66 54 64 46 20 212 175:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was sharply higher on Friday, but a little lower for the week. The trade was trying to reject the start of a new leg lower set Thursday. The fundamentals remain mostly positive for prices. Florida production is now estimated at 67 million boxes, unchanged from last month. California and US production was increased. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand, but inventories are creeping lower. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. The tree condition is called good. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. The harvest is active in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 121.00, 128.00, and 115.00 September, with resistance at 128.00, 131.00, and 132.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 14, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,061 :
: Positions :
: 5,386 9,413 585 0 0 2,499 55 0 452 687 2,136 :
: Changes from: July 7, 2020 :
: -260 259 7 0 0 188 -49 0 -16 40 163 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 41.2 72.1 4.5 0.0 0.0 19.1 0.4 0.0 3.5 5.3 16.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 54 :
: 18 12 . 0 0 13 . 0 8 7 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were sideways in both markets for much of the week but turned higher on Friday. Chart trends have turned up for at least the short term with the price action on Friday. London Robusta futures have been the leader to the upside. Demand overall remains down with the US still locking down due to the Coronavirus resurgence in some states. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. Europe is emerging from lock downs. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Even so, the pickers are showing up for work and ports are operating normally. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. Vietnam also had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.598 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 102.73 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions or isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,303 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 97.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, and resistance is at 103.00, 105.00 and 106.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1250 and 1300 September. Support is at 1210, 1180, and 1150 September, and resistance is at 1260, 1300, and 1350 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 14, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 322,686
: Positions :
: 31,855 55,577 83,180 127,865 157,250 64,221 17,610 307,121 313,618: 15,565 9,069
: Changes from: July 7, 2020 (Change in open interest: -1,390) :
: 213 92 -1,529 -914 -701 -164 217 -2,394 -1,921: 1,004 531
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.9 17.2 25.8 39.6 48.7 19.9 5.5 95.2 97.2: 4.8 2.8
: Total Traders: 447 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 129 101 132 129 113 46 27 371 325:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/14/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
169,437 92,287 57,960 17,958 13,253 1,426
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.5% 34.2% 10.6% 7.8% 0.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
150 49 39 14 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
10,336 51,990 14,504 6,135 5,831 20,313
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.1% 30.7% 8.6% 3.6% 3.4% 12.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 29 12 13 13 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,477 4,160
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.8% 2.5%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed slightly lower and London closed a little higher but rejected new moves to lower prices in the past week. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market, but getting the Sugar moved is becoming more difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. Brazil mills have shifted part of the crush to Sugar production due to less ethanol demand. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well. .
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1120, and 1100 October, and resistance is at 1200, 1230, and 1230 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 337.00, 332.00, and 330.00 October, and resistance is at 356.00, 360.00, and 366.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 14, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,099,047
: Positions :
: 115,618 59,656 177,539 432,813 747,625 297,603 54,419 1,023,573 1,039,238: 75,474 59,809
: Changes from: July 7, 2020 (Change in open interest: 13,717) :
: 1,284 7,637 15,051 -1,931 -11,929 -2,288 -2,721 12,116 8,037: 1,601 5,680
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.5 5.4 16.2 39.4 68.0 27.1 5.0 93.1 94.6: 6.9 5.4
: Total Traders: 252 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 51 78 80 75 42 23 224 190:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/14/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
112,806 63,201 92,154 10,822 3,604 2,893
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.0% 81.7% 9.6% 3.2% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
115 41 41 10 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
20,702 2,698 2,966 3,984 2,341 3,768
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
18.4% 2.4% 2.6% 3.5% 2.1% 3.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
22 12 11 7 7 12
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,470 2,382
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.0% 2.1%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on weaker demand ideas. The European grind was down almost 9% and the North American grind was lower as well/ There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 4.086 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 441 contracts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2090, 2060, and 2030 September, with resistance at 2210, 2220, and 2310 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1460 September. Support is at 1540, 1510, and 1480 September, with resistance at 1580, 1600, and 1660 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 14, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 252,543
: Positions :
: 20,421 50,827 65,040 96,385 105,546 57,472 22,618 239,318 244,031: 13,225 8,512
: Changes from: July 7, 2020 (Change in open interest: 4,034) :
: 1,513 8,174 -382 632 -4,187 2,229 1,498 3,992 5,102: 42 -1,068
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 20.1 25.8 38.2 41.8 22.8 9.0 94.8 96.6: 5.2 3.4
: Total Traders: 226 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 63 73 50 42 37 21 191 165:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/14/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
300,932 180,718 195,312 36,601 12,221 10,635
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 60.1% 64.9% 12.2% 4.1% 3.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
139 46 43 12 7 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,713 25,821 13,375 3,307 1,903 37,737
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 8.6% 4.4% 1.1% 0.6% 12.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
14 23 10 12 9 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,846 3,927
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.3% 1.3%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322