About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed lower in response to another week of poor weekly export sales released by USDA. It was a demand market, and the demand for US Cotton has been poor. Signs of an improving economy in the US and around the world helped ideas of better Cotton demand. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks or months. However, economic improvement in the US was thrown into doubt as Coronavirus cases surged higher in states that had reopened. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and Southeast will get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 58.59 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 19,898 bales, from 20,674 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 436 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 6000 and 5760 December. Support is at 6110, 6090, and 5930 December, with resistance of 6320, 6370 and 6490 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jul 16
As of Jul 10. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 38,179 37,959 220 24,401 25,363 -962
Mar 21 21,270 21,061 209 7,122 6,863 259
May 21 7,753 7,446 307 1,057 978 79
Jul 21 13,208 12,931 277 3,240 3,141 99
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 7,207 6,839 368 11,711 11,559 152
Mar 22 1,155 1,155 0 172 172 0
May 22 100 100 0 0 0 0
Jul 22 50 50 0 220 220 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 227 227 0
Jul 23 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 227 668 -441
Mar 24 0 0 0 441 0 441
Total 88,922 87,541 1,381 49,038 49,411 -373
Open Open Change
Int Int
Jul 20 16 172 -156
Oct 20 157 151 6
Dec 20 121,556 118,331 3,225
Mar 21 25,364 23,549 1,815
May 21 7,034 5,893 1,141
Jul 21 7,737 6,520 1,217
Oct 21 1 1 0
Dec 21 13,848 12,687 1,161
Mar 22 90 90 0
May 22 3 3 0
Jul 22 6 6 0
Dec 22 3 3 0
Jul 23 0 0 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Mar 24 0 0 0
Total 175,815 167,406 8,409

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower once again and short term trends are turning down. Florida production is now estimated at 67 million boxes, unchanged from last month. The Florida Movement and Pack report showed slightly lower ending stocks for the month. California and US production was increased. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. The tree condition is called good. The Valencia harvest is over. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. The harvest is increasingly active in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 119.00 and 113.00 September. Support is at 121.00, 128.00, and 115.00 September, with resistance at 125.00, 128.00, and 131.00 September.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jul 16
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
7/11/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
7/11/2020 7/13/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 313.09 325.96 -3.9%
Retail/Institutional 5.47 5.90 -7.4%
Total 318.56 331.86 -4.0%
Pack
Bulk 0.42 0.18 141.5%
Retail/Institutional 0.96 0.94 2.9%
Total Pack 1.39 1.11 24.8%
Reprocessed -1.39 -1.11 24.8%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.03 -0.01 102.8%
Imports – Foreign 7.81 0.00 NA
Domestic Receipts 0.03 0.30 -89.5%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.04 0.70 -94.7%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 319.98 326.01 -1.9%
Retail/Institutional 6.43 6.84 -6.0%
Total 326.41 332.86 -1.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.23 2.31 126.0%
Exports 0.23 0.12 86.5%
Total (Bulk) 5.45 2.43 124.0%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.96 1.48 -35.2%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.96 1.48 -35.2%
Total Movement 6.41 3.91 63.9%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 314.53 323.58 -2.8%
Retail/Institutional 5.48 5.36 2.1%
Ending Inventory 320.00 328.95 -2.7%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
11-Jul-20 13-Jul-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 136.40 142.01 -3.9%
Retail/Institutional 42.87 49.16 -12.8%
Total Pack 179.28 191.17 -6.2%
Reprocessed -97.27 -103.88 -6.4%
Pack from Fruit 82.01 87.29 -6.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -2.28 -1.08 110.4%
Imports – Foreign 131.10 242.48 -45.9%
Domestic Receipts 12.59 10.13 24.3%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.46 0.04 1213.2%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 18.28 3.56 413.7%
Reprocessed FCTJ 2.02 2.53 -20.3%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 513.25 532.99 -3.7%
Retail/Institutional 48.70 55.08 -11.6%
Total 561.95 588.07 -4.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 193.54 192.76 0.4%
Domestic 11.14 16.65 -33.1%
Exports 204.68 209.41 -2.3%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 43.22 49.71 -13.1%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 43.22 49.71 -13.1%
Total Movement 247.91 259.12 -4.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 314.53 323.58 -2.8%
Retail/Institutional 5.48 5.36 2.1%
Ending Inventory 320.00 328.95 -2.7%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher and are led higher by London. London broke out to the upside on the daily charts. This comes even as differentials paid in Vietnam are holding steady and those in Indonesia are turning weaker. Coffee availability is said to be strong in most of Asia. The Real in Brazil is strill very cheap against the US Dollar and other major currencies. The Coronavirus has returned to the US to kill demand hopes. Europe is in much better shape battling the virus. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Even so, the pickers are showing up for work. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. Vietnam also had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.615 million bags. GCA stocks are now 7.061 million bags, from 6.724 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 99.82 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions or isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,303 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 97.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, and resistance is at 103.00, 105.00 and 106.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1250 and 1300 September. Support is at 1210, 1180, and 1150 September, and resistance is at 1260, 1300, and 1350 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed mostly higher and London closed a little lower. There is still an active export program from Brazil, but not really from India or Thailand. Getting the Sugar moved is becoming more difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. The Coronavirus has also hurt demand ideas, especially for ethanol. Brazil mills have shifted part of the crush to Sugar production due to less ethanol demand. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1120, and 1100 October, and resistance is at 1250, 1300, and 1330 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 337.00, 332.00, and 330.00 October, and resistance is at 356.00, 360.00, and 366.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower. Ideas of ample supplies amid deteriorating grind rates hurt the market. The European grind was reported lower yesterday morning and the North American grind was lower in the afternoon. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is in much better shape in battling the virus. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. However, the Midcrop could be less due to dry weather earlier in the season. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 4.086 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 441 contracts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2090, 2060, and 2030 September, with resistance at 2200, 2220, and 2310 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1460 September. Support is at 1510, 1480, and 1450 September, with resistance at 1560, 1600, and 1660 September.

DJ European Cocoa Processing Slumps Amid Lock downs
By David Hodari
European processing volumes of raw cocoa beans slumped by 8.9% in the second quarter of the year due to the global economic torpor, travel bans and lock downs brought by the coronavirus pandemic, according to data released Thursday by the European Cocoa Association.
Cocoa grindings–the amount of raw cocoa processed into butter and powder for making confectionery and chocolate–plunged 30,782 metric tons to 314,108 metric tons.
That’s down from 344,890 tons in the same quarter last year, to mark the weakest second quarter grindings since 2015 and the biggest percentage drop since the 2011/2012 growing season.
Grindings are seen by market participants as a proxy for demand. The ECA bases its estimates on data from 21 companies, including Cargill Cocoa & Chocolate Inc., Ferrero SpA, Nestle SA and Mondelez International Inc.
Investors will be watching for North American figures, due out in the coming weeks.
London cocoa futures were last down 0.1% at $1,551 a metric ton.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322