About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower as there was no new confirmation of sales to China. The weekly export sales report was strong. There were rumors of Chinese buying including Soft Red Winter which is very high priced in the world market earlier in the week, but USDA has not yet confirmed anything. The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving forward and yield reports are still better than expected. Spring Wheat is developing well. Russian and French crops are still suffering stress and Russian yield reports have been disappointing to farmers there. Good conditions are reported in much of Canada. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Australia remains in good condition. Argentina has been dry but is expected to get rains in the next week to 10 days.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 551 and 569 September. Support is at 533, 521, and 494 September, with resistance at 552, 564, and 568 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 442, 440, and 432 September, with resistance at 464, 468, and 473 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 510, 506, and 500 September, and resistance is at 528, 531, and 538 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower, with September leading the way. It looks like the market feels that new crop Rice will be available for delivery against September contracts. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast and also now in the MidSouth. Progress is solid.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1170, 1167, and 1147 September, with resistance at 1190, 1210, and 1213 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher in spread trading as traders sold Soybeans and Wheat and bought Corn. Corn is still the weakest market right now. There were rains reported in some drier areas of Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri this week and more is in the forecast for the next week or so. The area that is too dry in the Midwest is shrinking. There have also been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are aiming to restore 05% of capacity kill rates in their plants. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices are falling. Ethanol demand is also improving as lock down orders are lifted in most states and in Europe, but remains generally poor. Many states are forced to backpedal on opening moves due to new outbreaks of the virus.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 314 September. Support is at 326, 322, and 316 September, and resistance is at 336, 340, and 346 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 266 September. Support is at 276, 271, and 268 September, and resistance is at 288, 290, and 298 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher on renewed Chinese demand for US Soybeans. China and unknown destinations were large buyers earlier in the week of US Soybeans. Wire reports indicate that they are looking for more. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. However, those promises were thrown into doubt as the US announced it would not start Phase 2 negotiations at this time due to political problems with China. Ideas are that China will have much less incentive to complete Phase 1 purchases. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 126,000 tons of US Soybeans
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 885, 882, and 871 August, and resistance is at 905, 912, and 913 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 280.00 and 277.00 August. Support is at 284.00, 279.00, and 276.00 August, and resistance is at 290.00, 292.00, and 296.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 2980 and 3100 August. Support is at 2890, 2850, and 2830 August, with resistance at 2980, 3050, and 3080 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower in sympathy with lower petroleum values. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic, but the return of Coronavirus has made things much more difficult. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher in range trading. It was supported by price action in Chicago. Some Prairies areas got needed rain over the weekend and crops are considered in good condition. Some farmers are liquidating old crop supplies due to the improved weather for the new crop. The Canadian Dollar was weaker against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 475.00, 470.00, and 468.00 November, with resistance at 481.00, 484.00, and 487.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2530 October. Support is at 2490, 2450, and 2390 October, with resistance at 2520, 2600, and 2650 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +60 Sep +145 Sep +55 Sep +63 Aug N/A N/A
August +60 Sep +55 Sep +63 Aug
September +62 Sep +55 Sep +68 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 16
WINNIPEG, July 16 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 460.00 -13.00 Nov 2020 dn 1.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 494.10 15.00 Nov 2020 up 1.40
Basis: Vancouver 499.40 25.00 Nov 2020 up 1.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 657.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 642.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 627.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 622.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 660.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 645.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 630.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 625.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 635.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 550.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,700.00 +80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 176.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2630)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 251,475 lots, or 11.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,705 4,774 4,700 4,742 4,753 4,732 -21 224,583 133,387
Nov-20 4,336 4,336 4,282 4,317 4,313 4,320 7 460 2,304
Jan-21 4,283 4,320 4,282 4,300 4,309 4,297 -12 25,300 58,732
Mar-21 4,288 4,335 4,277 4,319 4,322 4,290 -32 523 389
May-21 4,270 4,332 4,270 4,314 4,316 4,311 -5 478 4,636
Jul-21 4,311 4,328 4,311 4,322 4,325 4,319 -6 131 229
Corn
Turnover: 396,916 lots, or 8.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,155 2,164 2,151 2,162 2,155 2,157 2 236,793 533,341
Nov-20 2,151 2,161 2,147 2,154 2,150 2,154 4 28,493 54,286
Jan-21 2,144 2,151 2,140 2,149 2,144 2,146 2 108,263 512,071
Mar-21 2,150 2,157 2,147 2,154 2,151 2,153 2 2,503 4,135
May-21 2,167 2,173 2,165 2,170 2,169 2,169 0 15,986 175,905
Jul-21 2,175 2,196 2,175 2,195 2,177 2,186 9 4,878 1,446
Soymeal
Turnover: 977,007 lots, or 28.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 2,908 2,912 2,886 2,899 2,891 2,894 3 104 1,397
Sep-20 2,899 2,909 2,886 2,901 2,882 2,897 15 613,907 1,035,941
Nov-20 2,922 2,928 2,906 2,920 2,903 2,914 11 49,650 56,336
Dec-20 2,909 2,925 2,906 2,923 2,900 2,914 14 15,751 8,190
Jan-21 2,903 2,916 2,899 2,915 2,896 2,907 11 238,173 909,780
Mar-21 2,760 2,765 2,750 2,760 2,753 2,755 2 2,898 3,971
May-21 2,713 2,719 2,704 2,712 2,706 2,711 5 56,491 347,972
Jul-21 2,726 2,730 2,720 2,729 2,719 2,723 4 33 171
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,872,517 lots, or 10.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 5,846 5,998 5,730 5,804 5,620 5,840 220 7 5
Sep-20 5,276 5,468 5,262 5,434 5,308 5,378 70 1,665,180 366,176
Oct-20 5,276 5,386 5,180 5,356 5,234 5,298 64 7,744 7,098
Nov-20 5,192 5,386 5,192 5,364 5,216 5,290 74 7,988 2,543
Dec-20 5,172 5,348 5,168 5,312 5,192 5,274 82 7,478 1,261
Jan-21 5,156 5,334 5,146 5,300 5,176 5,254 78 181,787 139,051
Feb-21 5,240 5,320 5,240 5,306 5,250 5,308 58 18 118
Mar-21 5,256 5,400 5,256 5,400 5,258 5,334 76 3 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,244 5,170 5,244 74 0 151
May-21 5,214 5,380 5,198 5,344 5,226 5,318 92 2,312 12,226
Jun-21 – – – 5,190 5,166 5,190 24 0 0
Jul-21 – – – 5,292 5,166 5,292 126 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 790,112 lots, or 47.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 5,868 6,340 5,868 6,278 6,038 6,176 138 49 3
Sep-20 5,942 6,162 5,934 6,124 5,958 6,062 104 567,910 307,434
Nov-20 5,944 6,160 5,944 6,124 5,962 6,082 120 8,927 8,977
Dec-20 5,946 6,152 5,946 6,122 5,964 6,064 100 6,480 2,362
Jan-21 5,930 6,134 5,922 6,106 5,934 6,044 110 196,262 265,519
Mar-21 5,908 6,094 5,900 6,066 5,914 6,028 114 4,796 568
May-21 5,900 6,098 5,900 6,076 5,906 6,014 108 5,688 26,062
Jul-21 – – – 6,032 5,886 6,032 146 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322