William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
What a difference a week makes! Just a few days ago, the mkt was completing a 50 cent rally spawned by a super-bullish June 30 acreage report & the onset of some “hot & dry” weather! But alas the excessive heat forecast was mitigated to more normal temps & precip as we enter the early stages of pollination – and the mkt retracted! And the July WADSE Report on Friday was really of no help to the Bulls – coming in neutral for 2020 production, yield and US & Global stocks! Again reminding traders of the adequate stocks on hand! The “outsides” are still supportive with the DJI holding 8000 points off its lows – the crude oil up $20 off its April lows & the US $ well off its highs! And 10 year lows are still cheap!
With pollination right around the corner & on the heels of a 40 cent rally, a less threatening weather forecast was all the mkt needed to correct sharply & correct it did! This not to say – further weather issues may not arise – but for now, the mkt seems content with predicted temps & precip! The July WADSE Report was a touch friendly with production at 15 BB (June – 15.985) – US Stocks – 2,648 MB (June 3323) & Global stocks at 315 MMT (June – 337) – but not enough to offset the bearish weather! Recent exports have been stellar with 1,365,000 MMT to China on Friday & Thur export sales at 1.01 MMT. But WEATHER this time of the year is clearly the 800 pound Gorilla in the room! Still the crop is far from in the bin & 10 year low prices have discounted a lot of bearish fundamentals! And there still exists a sizable short open interest in the mkt!
Impressively in the last two trading days, Sept Wht has not followed Sept Corn & Beans lower – holding steady while Corn & Beans have lost 20-25 cents off bearish weather! The reason lies in the European wht areas where harsh weather has severely reduced yields in both the Black Sea Region & Russia! Meanwhile, China was very active in our export mkt on Friday – buying 130,000 MT of Hard Red Winter & 190,000 of Hard Red Spring!
The USDA July Supply & Demand Report – much like for corn & beans – was mainly neutral – all wht 1.824 BB (1.848) – winter wht – 1.22 BB (1.24) – US Stocks 942 (948) & global stocks – 314 MMT (316).
Aug Cat’s promising $20 rally this Spring has languished as of late into a very tight trading range (99-102) – and it appears the culprit is the resurgence of Covid in many states – in effect stalling out the economic recovery – and flat-lining beef & pork demand. Another factor is the price structure – this year Aug Cat is at a $4.00 premium to cash versus 2019 when it was $3.00 discount – so some of the “economy recovery demand” is already priced in!
Well it’s taken a while but it feels like the Aug Hog contract has finally overcome the Bearish Pig Crop Report issued a couple week ago! The first sign was technical as the Mkt was finally able to fill in the downside gap left after the report. Fundamentally, the pork cut-out was up $1.69 yesterday & export demand from China recently has been excellent! Now with a little help from a resurgent economy, the Hog Mkt could be ripe for a sustained rally off its very depressed lows (some $40 off its January highs)!Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337