About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 10, 2020 61 Jul 02, 2020
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 10, 2020 26 Jul 07, 2020
WHEAT July Jul. 10, 2020 84 Jul 08, 2020

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jul 9
For the week ended Jul 2, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 326.1 -75.0 7560.2 7487.1 5304.7 0.0
hrw 61.9 0.0 2833.4 3024.6 1825.6 0.0
srw 149.6 -75.0 728.7 1025.7 610.8 0.0
hrs 86.0 0.0 2171.3 1864.6 1583.8 0.0
white 28.4 0.0 1516.6 1359.6 1105.5 0.0
durum 0.2 0.0 310.2 212.5 179.0 0.0
corn 599.2 409.3 42912.7 49421.0 7945.8 4302.3
soybeans 952.2 382.1 45994.8 48532.3 8229.8 7318.9
soymeal 124.4 73.5 11187.7 11318.3 1905.6 442.4
soyoil 28.9 0.0 1218.2 813.4 239.7 11.0
upland cotton 43.8 6.7 17036.7 15316.0 4156.3 3496.8
pima cotton 2.8 3.6 577.2 728.9 121.5 37.5
sorghum 53.9 137.0 4210.5 1621.1 846.2 593.0
barley 0.0 0.0 41.7 51.7 40.2 0.0
rice 21.6 0.0 3332.9 3436.6 336.9 62.7

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher as the Winter Wheat harvest expanded north and as the Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions. The weather in Europe and Russia caused the rally despite good things happening here. Russian producers are said to be disappointed in the yields and it has been dry in France and Britain. Yield reports from the HRW region of the US have been variable, but generally a little better than expected, so USDA might raise its production estimates nest month. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Australia remains in good condition. Prices usually move lower and remain down through the harvest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 532 September. Support is at 500, 496, and 488 September, with resistance at 525, 530, and 553 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 470 and 496 September. Support is at 450, 444, and 440 September, with resistance at 462, 468, and 473 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 531 and 547 September. Support is at 515, 510, and 506 September, and resistance is at 524, 526, and 531 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower and is threatening to break down on the daily charts once again. Futures can continue to trade lower as the Texas and southern Louisiana harvests are just a few weeks away and the crops are developing under mostly very good conditions. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting was more problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain got planted and producers did not plant medium grain if some prevent planting was needed.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1186 September. Support is at 1206, 1203, and 1192 September, with resistance at 1219, 1239, and 1241 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher. Futures markets have had hot and dry weather in much of the Midwest this week to support prices, and the weather market is coming as there are some forecasts for hot and dry weather for the next week or two. The ability of futures to hold rallies will depend on how much heat and for how long it stays dry in the Midwest. There have also been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are aiming to restore 80% to 85% of capacity kill rates in their plants. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices are falling. Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifter in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 339, 334, and 332 September, and resistance is at 354, 356, and 361 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 278 and 266 September. Support is at 285, 280, and 279 September, and resistance is at 292, 298, and 301 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little lower on no Chinese demand and on forecasts for showers later this week in the US Midwest. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time but forecasts call for hot and dry weather in the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 880, 872, and 868 August, and resistance is at 913, 915, and 921 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 292.00, 290.00, and 288.00 August, and resistance is at 300.00, 305.00, and 310.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2790, 2710, and 2680 August, with resistance at 2890, 2910, and 2980 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on better demand ideas. Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was lower on chart based selling and the price action in Chicago. Canola was weaker on a stronger Canadian Dollar. The weather has been warmer the past few weeks to promote growth, but there is still too much moisture in some western areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 472.00, 470.00, and 468.00 November, with resistance at 482.00, 484.00, and 485.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2350, 2340, and 2290 September, with resistance at 2430, 2440, and 2490 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +52 Sep +145 Sep +40 Sep +59 July N/A N/A
August +54 Sep +40 Sep +64 Aug
September +59 Sep +45 Sep +63 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 8
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 462.30 -18.00 Nov 2020 up 1.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 494.10 15.00 Nov 2020 dn 1.20
Basis: Vancouver 499.10 20.00 Nov 2020 dn 1.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 607.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 600.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 590.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 582.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 610.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 602.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 592.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 585.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 585.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 515.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 2,465.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 168.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2605)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 358,380 lots, or 17.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,503 5,503 5,386 5,500 5,831 5,402 -429 308 94
Sep-20 4,737 4,849 4,728 4,846 4,733 4,799 66 326,856 166,209
Nov-20 4,345 4,390 4,340 4,373 4,333 4,371 38 1,833 2,026
Jan-21 4,277 4,327 4,275 4,313 4,277 4,304 27 28,350 57,429
Mar-21 4,333 4,338 4,314 4,332 4,294 4,325 31 82 221
May-21 4,306 4,340 4,295 4,330 4,295 4,323 28 951 4,304
Corn
Turnover: 667,733 lots, or 14.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 2,108 2,108 2,108 0 0 0
Sep-20 2,115 2,148 2,114 2,145 2,114 2,133 19 490,668 655,751
Nov-20 2,124 2,152 2,124 2,149 2,124 2,140 16 41,524 50,884
Jan-21 2,134 2,154 2,132 2,151 2,132 2,145 13 113,078 399,930
Mar-21 2,144 2,160 2,142 2,158 2,141 2,154 13 3,488 2,798
May-21 2,160 2,179 2,157 2,177 2,158 2,171 13 18,975 108,920
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,066,351 lots, or 30.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 2,750 2,750 2,750 0 0 423
Aug-20 2,888 2,898 2,880 2,890 2,890 2,888 -2 2,805 2,908
Sep-20 2,900 2,912 2,894 2,905 2,900 2,903 3 727,639 1,193,711
Nov-20 2,921 2,942 2,921 2,936 2,932 2,933 1 27,723 54,552
Dec-20 2,944 2,952 2,933 2,943 2,940 2,942 2 15,430 7,563
Jan-21 2,941 2,954 2,935 2,947 2,944 2,945 1 231,650 905,443
Mar-21 2,804 2,814 2,796 2,804 2,816 2,806 -10 2,094 2,838
May-21 2,753 2,761 2,740 2,750 2,756 2,749 -7 59,010 242,664
Palm Oil
Turnover: 922,358 lots, or 46.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,162 5,162 5,162 0 0 0
Aug-20 – – – 5,056 5,056 5,056 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,078 5,116 5,060 5,086 5,046 5,086 40 824,443 324,749
Oct-20 5,032 5,064 5,010 5,026 4,978 5,028 50 8,078 6,185
Nov-20 5,058 5,144 4,972 5,040 4,984 5,030 46 8,179 3,023
Dec-20 4,998 5,040 4,996 5,026 4,976 5,016 40 5,090 1,739
Jan-21 4,996 5,026 4,982 5,016 4,972 5,006 34 75,970 120,040
Feb-21 5,054 5,054 5,054 5,054 4,986 5,054 68 1 114
Mar-21 – – – 5,062 5,062 5,062 0 0 19
Apr-21 – – – 5,070 5,066 5,070 4 0 152
May-21 5,080 5,112 5,070 5,100 5,066 5,090 24 597 9,671
Jun-21 – – – 5,118 5,094 5,118 24 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 396,516 lots, or 23.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,398 5,398 5,398 0 0 0
Aug-20 – – – 5,796 5,796 5,796 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,800 5,852 5,798 5,838 5,790 5,822 32 298,459 321,126
Nov-20 5,848 5,874 5,784 5,854 5,828 5,848 20 4,846 9,107
Dec-20 5,862 5,884 5,832 5,868 5,832 5,854 22 3,487 2,456
Jan-21 5,856 5,890 5,846 5,872 5,848 5,866 18 82,170 233,565
Mar-21 5,856 5,874 5,830 5,856 5,838 5,846 8 5,486 909
May-21 5,872 5,896 5,858 5,874 5,866 5,874 8 2,068 20,508
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322