About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed a little higher as bad growing conditions continued in West Texas. Signs of an improving economy in the US and around the world really helped ideas of better Cotton demand as did reports of a lot of masks being made for use during the Coronavirus epidemic. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. However, economic improvement in the US was thrown into doubt as Coronavirus cases surged higher in states that had reopened. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 59.43 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 45,324 bales, from 42,338 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 307 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 6250, 6230, and 6110 December, with resistance of 6370, 6390 and 6510 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 30, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 194,639
: Positions :
: 30,248 26,021 36,970 46,292 115,068 69,341 7,236 182,851 185,295: 11,787 9,343
: Changes from: June 23, 2020 (Change in open interest: 4,033) :
: 364 -2,376 2,093 550 5,034 766 -13 3,773 4,738: 261 -704
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 13.4 19.0 23.8 59.1 35.6 3.7 93.9 95.2: 6.1 4.8
: Total Traders: 255 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 58 66 55 64 44 22 201 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. Southern areas are cooler and have seen more frequent showers. The tree condition is called good. The Valencia harvest is almost over. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 September, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 135.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 30, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,813 :
: Positions :
: 5,611 9,212 575 0 0 2,255 186 0 529 586 2,019 :
: Changes from: June 23, 2020 :
: -330 217 6 0 -1 39 -310 0 79 -133 122 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 43.8 71.9 4.5 0.0 0.0 17.6 1.5 0.0 4.1 4.6 15.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55 :
: 18 11 . 0 0 13 . 0 13 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower even with a sharply lower US Dollar. The Coronavirus has returned to the US to kill demand hopes. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. Vietnam also had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.652 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 102.11 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,213 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 97.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, and resistance is at 103.00, 105.00 and 106.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1140, and 1120 September, and resistance is at 1230, 1240, and 1260 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 30, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 325,889
: Positions :
: 31,882 57,096 86,762 130,278 156,267 62,551 17,417 311,473 317,542: 14,416 8,347
: Changes from: June 23, 2020 (Change in open interest: 4,481) :
: 179 -2,276 5,206 333 3,384 -733 -1,750 4,984 4,563: -503 -83
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 17.5 26.6 40.0 48.0 19.2 5.3 95.6 97.4: 4.4 2.6
: Total Traders: 456 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 138 96 138 128 117 46 25 381 329:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on weaker demand ideas. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market, but getting the Sugar moved is becoming increasingly difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. Brazil mills are currently producing about 48% Sugar from the cane crush, from about 33% a year ago. The overall crush rate is below year ago levels. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal. ICE said that 4,993 contracts were posted for delivery against July futures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1170, 1140, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1230, 1240, and 1260 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 344.00, 338.00, and 335.00 October, and resistance is at 360.00, 366.00, and 370.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 30, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,076,778
: Positions :
: 106,390 60,470 156,338 446,788 739,411 291,848 60,672 1,001,364 1,016,890: 75,414 59,888
: Changes from: June 23, 2020 (Change in open interest: -38,198) :
: -4,193 -10,032 2,968 -32,936 -32,678 -917 1,999 -35,077 -37,742: -3,121 -456
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.9 5.6 14.5 41.5 68.7 27.1 5.6 93.0 94.4: 7.0 5.6
: Total Traders: 247 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 52 73 81 74 41 20 217 184:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed mixed. London has been the weaker market but New York was catching up yesterday. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. However, the Midcrop could be less due to dry weather earlier in the season. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.122 million bags. ICE said that 18 delivery notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 438 contracts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2110 September. Support is at 2090, 2060, and 2030 September, with resistance at 2180, 2220, and 2310 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1560 and 1460 September. Support is at 1570, 1540, and 1510 September, with resistance at 1600, 1660, and 1700 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 30, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 245,322
: Positions :
: 21,991 37,013 66,437 89,694 112,711 54,425 19,819 232,547 235,980: 12,775 9,342
: Changes from: June 23, 2020 (Change in open interest: 11,300) :
: -876 -82 4,921 4,509 4,551 1,854 524 10,407 9,914: 893 1,387
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 15.1 27.1 36.6 45.9 22.2 8.1 94.8 96.2: 5.2 3.8
: Total Traders: 220 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 60 70 45 39 36 19 183 156:
——————————————————————————————————————-

141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1920, Chicago, IL 60604 | (800) 769- or 7021 | (312) 264-4322 (Direct) | www.pricegroup.com
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale purchase of any securities or futures.
The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.
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MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Tuesday, July 07, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
jslsa@comcast.net

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed a little higher as bad growing conditions continued in West Texas. Signs of an improving economy in the US and around the world really helped ideas of better Cotton demand as did reports of a lot of masks being made for use during the Coronavirus epidemic. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. However, economic improvement in the US was thrown into doubt as Coronavirus cases surged higher in states that had reopened. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 59.43 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 45,324 bales, from 42,338 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 307 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 6250, 6230, and 6110 December, with resistance of 6370, 6390 and 6510 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 30, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 194,639
: Positions :
: 30,248 26,021 36,970 46,292 115,068 69,341 7,236 182,851 185,295: 11,787 9,343
: Changes from: June 23, 2020 (Change in open interest: 4,033) :
: 364 -2,376 2,093 550 5,034 766 -13 3,773 4,738: 261 -704
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 13.4 19.0 23.8 59.1 35.6 3.7 93.9 95.2: 6.1 4.8
: Total Traders: 255 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 58 66 55 64 44 22 201 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. Southern areas are cooler and have seen more frequent showers. The tree condition is called good. The Valencia harvest is almost over. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 September, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 135.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 30, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,813 :
: Positions :
: 5,611 9,212 575 0 0 2,255 186 0 529 586 2,019 :
: Changes from: June 23, 2020 :
: -330 217 6 0 -1 39 -310 0 79 -133 122 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 43.8 71.9 4.5 0.0 0.0 17.6 1.5 0.0 4.1 4.6 15.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55 :
: 18 11 . 0 0 13 . 0 13 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower even with a sharply lower US Dollar. The Coronavirus has returned to the US to kill demand hopes. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. Vietnam also had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.652 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 102.11 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,213 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 97.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, and resistance is at 103.00, 105.00 and 106.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1140, and 1120 September, and resistance is at 1230, 1240, and 1260 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 30, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 325,889
: Positions :
: 31,882 57,096 86,762 130,278 156,267 62,551 17,417 311,473 317,542: 14,416 8,347
: Changes from: June 23, 2020 (Change in open interest: 4,481) :
: 179 -2,276 5,206 333 3,384 -733 -1,750 4,984 4,563: -503 -83
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 17.5 26.6 40.0 48.0 19.2 5.3 95.6 97.4: 4.4 2.6
: Total Traders: 456 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 138 96 138 128 117 46 25 381 329:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on weaker demand ideas. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market, but getting the Sugar moved is becoming increasingly difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. Brazil mills are currently producing about 48% Sugar from the cane crush, from about 33% a year ago. The overall crush rate is below year ago levels. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal. ICE said that 4,993 contracts were posted for delivery against July futures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1170, 1140, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1230, 1240, and 1260 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 344.00, 338.00, and 335.00 October, and resistance is at 360.00, 366.00, and 370.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 30, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,076,778
: Positions :
: 106,390 60,470 156,338 446,788 739,411 291,848 60,672 1,001,364 1,016,890: 75,414 59,888
: Changes from: June 23, 2020 (Change in open interest: -38,198) :
: -4,193 -10,032 2,968 -32,936 -32,678 -917 1,999 -35,077 -37,742: -3,121 -456
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.9 5.6 14.5 41.5 68.7 27.1 5.6 93.0 94.4: 7.0 5.6
: Total Traders: 247 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 52 73 81 74 41 20 217 184:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed mixed. London has been the weaker market but New York was catching up yesterday. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. However, the Midcrop could be less due to dry weather earlier in the season. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.122 million bags. ICE said that 18 delivery notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 438 contracts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2110 September. Support is at 2090, 2060, and 2030 September, with resistance at 2180, 2220, and 2310 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1560 and 1460 September. Support is at 1570, 1540, and 1510 September, with resistance at 1600, 1660, and 1700 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 30, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 245,322
: Positions :
: 21,991 37,013 66,437 89,694 112,711 54,425 19,819 232,547 235,980: 12,775 9,342
: Changes from: June 23, 2020 (Change in open interest: 11,300) :
: -876 -82 4,921 4,509 4,551 1,854 524 10,407 9,914: 893 1,387
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 15.1 27.1 36.6 45.9 22.2 8.1 94.8 96.2: 5.2 3.8
: Total Traders: 220 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 60 70 45 39 36 19 183 156:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322