About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 07, 2020 217 Jun 30, 2020
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 07, 2020 49 Jun 30, 2020
WHEAT July Jul. 07, 2020 133 Jun 30, 2020
:
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower as the Winter Wheat harvest expanded north and as the Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions. Yield reports from the region have been variable, but generally a little better than expected, so USDA might raise its production estimates nest month. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts. Spring Wheat markets show down trends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Better rains are reported in Europe and Russia. Australia remains in good condition. Prices usually move lower and remain down through the harvest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 514 and 537 September. Support is at 489, 481, and 471 September, with resistance at 500, 503, and 512 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 432, 424, and 418 September, with resistance at 446, 450, and 454 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 506 and 488 September. Support is at 506, 501, and 488 September, and resistance is at 518, 522, and 524 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in new crop months and lower for another week in old crop July. New crop months were relatively little changed as new crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting was more problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain got planted and producers did not plant medium grain if some prevent planting was needed.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1186 September. Support is at 1212, 1203, and 1201 September, with resistance at 1241, 1246, and 1266 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher in reaction to the surprise cut in planted area shown by USDA. The quarterly stocks report was bearish but the surprise of the report was a cut in planted area by US farmers from 97 million acres down to 92 million. Futures markets have had hot and dry weather in much of the Midwest this week to support prices, but the weather market is coming as there are some forecasts for hot and dry weather for the next week or two. The ability of futures to hold rallies will depend on how much heat and for how long it stays dry in the Midwest. There have also been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are aiming to restore 80% to 85% of capacity kill rates in their plants. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices are falling. Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifter in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time.
Overnight News: China bought202,000 tons and Mexico bought 182,880 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 355 September. Support is at 339, 332, and 326 September, and resistance is at 354, 356, and 361 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 278 and 266 September. Support is at 286, 283, and 279 September, and resistance is at 292, 298, and 301 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher on more Chinese demand and less than expected planted area as shown by USDA on Tuesday. The quarterly stocks report was in line with trade expectations. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time but forecasts call for hot and dry weather in the next couple of weeks. Ideas are that USDA will show slight deterioration in crop conditions this week.
Overnight News: China bought 264,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 891 August. Support is at 880, 872, and 868 August, and resistance is at 896, 900, and 915 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 301.00 August. Support is at 292.00, 290.00, and 286.00 August, and resistance is at 298.00, 300.00, and 305.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2790, 2710, and 2680 August, with resistance at 2860, 2890, and 2910 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on the strength in the outside markets. Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher. Canola was higher on a weaker Canadian Dollar and Chicago price action The planted area estimates were above trade expectations but below the previous year. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks after weeks of cold and wet weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 472.00, 470.00, and 468.00 November, with resistance at 480.00, 482.00, and 484.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2290 September. Support is at 2290, 2250, and 2200 September, with resistance at 2370, 2430, and 2470 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +54 July +135 Sep +40 July +56 July N/A N/A
August +50 Sep +45 Sep +66 Aug
September +55 Sep +45 Sep +62 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 30
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for June 30, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 458.60 -15.50 July 2020 up 5.10
Track Thunder Bay 491.00 15.00 Nov 2020 up 3.40
Track Vancouver 501.00 25.00 Nov 2020 up 3.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 605.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 600.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 587.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 577.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 607.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 602.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 590.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 580.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 585.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 515.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 2,450.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 166.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.279)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 313,542 lots, or 14.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,599 6,030 5,599 6,030 5,600 5,841 241 7 420
Sep-20 4,775 4,825 4,755 4,794 4,850 4,787 -63 281,584 168,714
Nov-20 4,308 4,387 4,308 4,367 4,388 4,356 -32 711 1,570
Jan-21 4,292 4,325 4,285 4,304 4,348 4,303 -45 29,450 54,970
Mar-21 4,331 4,334 4,284 4,316 4,364 4,316 -48 289 184
May-21 4,319 4,339 4,308 4,320 4,357 4,320 -37 1,501 4,172
Corn
Turnover: 421,710 lots, or 8.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 2,108 2,108 2,108 0 0 1
Sep-20 2,106 2,120 2,102 2,116 2,107 2,112 5 300,265 657,160
Nov-20 2,119 2,128 2,114 2,125 2,119 2,122 3 28,546 47,961
Jan-21 2,124 2,133 2,120 2,132 2,125 2,128 3 84,190 364,056
Mar-21 2,134 2,142 2,132 2,140 2,137 2,137 0 1,145 2,493
May-21 2,153 2,160 2,149 2,159 2,154 2,155 1 7,564 99,555
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,599,188 lots, or 46.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 2,750 2,702 2,750 48 0 775
Aug-20 2,882 2,918 2,872 2,912 2,878 2,899 21 767 8,825
Sep-20 2,905 2,933 2,894 2,927 2,898 2,918 20 1,125,893 1,251,123
Nov-20 2,942 2,971 2,932 2,965 2,935 2,957 22 42,104 60,762
Dec-20 3,000 3,000 2,949 2,980 2,950 2,975 25 18,207 8,534
Jan-21 2,960 2,997 2,954 2,984 2,954 2,981 27 364,350 873,842
Mar-21 2,835 2,850 2,815 2,846 2,817 2,841 24 2,094 2,082
May-21 2,762 2,790 2,757 2,783 2,753 2,778 25 45,773 192,826
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,157,986 lots, or 58.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,162 5,162 5,162 0 0 0
Aug-20 4,970 5,146 4,970 5,054 4,986 5,056 70 5 2
Sep-20 5,020 5,116 4,982 5,098 5,028 5,044 16 1,047,422 336,846
Oct-20 4,952 5,032 4,924 5,010 4,950 5,000 50 9,123 5,895
Nov-20 4,944 5,022 4,920 4,998 4,946 4,982 36 3,280 2,146
Dec-20 4,940 5,028 4,932 5,010 4,950 4,980 30 2,801 1,514
Jan-21 4,958 5,050 4,926 5,024 4,960 4,990 30 94,605 123,033
Feb-21 5,008 5,008 5,008 5,008 4,972 5,008 36 1 114
Mar-21 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,044 5,100 56 1 19
Apr-21 – – – 5,092 5,092 5,092 0 0 152
May-21 5,042 5,130 5,022 5,112 5,052 5,084 32 748 9,427
Jun-21 – – – 5,094 5,062 5,094 32 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 515,116 lots, or 30.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,398 5,398 5,398 0 0 0
Aug-20 – – – 5,800 5,800 5,800 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,766 5,876 5,762 5,840 5,768 5,818 50 397,432 326,987
Nov-20 5,806 5,894 5,788 5,866 5,796 5,844 48 10,542 8,591
Dec-20 5,832 5,916 5,794 5,884 5,804 5,864 60 4,768 2,344
Jan-21 5,816 5,926 5,810 5,896 5,818 5,870 52 95,984 214,403
Mar-21 5,834 5,924 5,824 5,872 5,836 5,884 48 2,617 718
May-21 5,832 5,938 5,830 5,908 5,836 5,894 58 3,773 16,926
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322