William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
From out of nowhere, a wildly bullish acreage report was dropped on the mkt today by the USDA – reducing corn acres from Mar 1 by a whopping 5 million acres – from 97 MA to 92 MA! This was easily the biggest Mar-June reduction in reporting history! Its especially stunning given the green-house type weather conditions we’ve had this Spring! And the bullish # stood in stark contrast to the quarterly stocks at 5.224 BB -well over the expected 4.990! The mkt apparently figured the heavy stocks were already dialed in but certainly not “surprise acres”! They may have been the result of Covid fears & certainly tighten up S/D!
The bean acres were also friendly – 83.8 (exp – 84.7) – but were not the bullish shocker that corn was! Nonetheless, they rode the tide for double-digit gains to their highest close since late March! Their Quarterly Stocks were more in line with expectations – 1.386 (exp-1.381)! The Beans have clearly been the upside leader this Spring – which is very surprising considering all the saber-rattling going between US/China over the Covid Blame Game & the Hong Kong protests! Yet Phase 1 is still intact & China is buying! Support is also being drawn from the Macro Mkts – the DJI was up over 3600 points for the 2nd Qtr & crude oil was up $10. And the mkt is already cheap at 10 yr lows! Finally there is no real “weather premium” currently in the price structure! The technicals (above) are positive!
July Wheat along with July Beans rode the Corn Acreage Shocker delivered by the USDA Tuesday – registering double digit gains & following thru on Wed! All Wheat acres came in Neutral at 44.25 MA (exp – 44.70) – albeit the lowest acreage # in over 100 years! However, quarterly Stocks were bearish at 1.044 BB (exp- 979)! Once again, the mkt ignored the stocks #’s in deference to the acreage #’s! Also, hotter, drier weather is forecast for the first two weeks of July – with no real “weather premium” in the price structure! Finally, harvest pressure for the winter wheat crop (41% in) has run its course! The downside seems to be exhausted in corn, beans & wheat as the mkt awaits July weather forecasts! A large short open interest & 10 year lows will be supportive for any up – should the weather dictate!
Aug Cat’s very promising $20 Spring Rally (81-104) has stalled out – morphing into a two month congestion area (94-102)! Seasonal beef weakness & a slow-down in the re-opening of the economy caused by the Covid resurgence are the culprits! What once was a big discount to cash has turned into a premium! The mkt needs the economy to continue re-opening to resume its up!
Just what the Pork Complex DIDN’T need was last weeks bearish Pig Crop Report – forecasting heavy supplies for the remainder of the year! And since the report, the Aug Hog contract has had trouble filling the downside gap! And that needs to be done before the mkt can stabilize! Meanwhile, the resurgence of Covid in California, Arizona, Texas & Florida has derailed their re-opening plans – casting a pall over meat & pork demand!
Bill MooreQuestions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337