Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton closed mostly a little higher as bad growing conditions continued in West Texas. USDA showed slightly improved crop conditions in its weekly updates this week. Signs of an improving economy in the US and around the world really helped ideas of better Cotton demand as did reports of a lot of masks being made for use during the Coronavirus epidemic. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. However, some states and countries are sliding backwards and could impose new restrictions soon. The situation remains hard to figure out. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 56.30 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 36,344 bales, from 34,906 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 171 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5880, 5860, and 5780 December, with resistance of 6020, 6050 and 6110 December.
Date 28-Jun 21-Jun 2019 Avg
Cotton Squaring 35 27 35 46
Cotton Setting Bolls 9 6 6 7
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 6 18 35 35 6
Cotton Last Week 7 19 35 33 7
Cotton Last Year 9 13 30 45 7
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher with July leading the way and looking for deliveries. Processors are not willing to deliver at current values due to reduced production and a stronger cash market. Florida production is now estimated at less than 68 million boxes. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. The Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US and more lock downs are possible. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. The tree condition is called good. The Valencia harvest is almost over. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. Shipping from Brazil is more problematic due to the massive outbreak of the Coronavirus there.
Overnight News: Florida should get ixolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 130.00 and 136.00 September. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 September, with resistance at 128.00, 129.00, and 132.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were higher. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. The Brazilian Real was higher against the US Dollar. Vietnam also had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is improving but is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.653 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 99.86 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 1 contract was delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,201 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 104.00 and 111.00 September. Support is at 100.00, 97.00, and 95.00 September, and resistance is at 103.00, 105.00 and 106.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1130, and 1100 September, and resistance is at 1190, 1220, and 1240 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher after making new lows for the move. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market, but getting the Sugar moved is becoming increasingly difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. Brazil mills are currently producing about 48% Sugar from the cane crush, from about 33% a year ago. The overall crush rate is below year ago levels. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1100 and 1030 October. Support is at 1120, 1100, and 1070 October, and resistance is at 1200, 1230, and 1240 October. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 344.00, 338.00, and 345.00 October, and resistance is at 355.00, 359.00, and 366.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. The main crop harvest is now over in West Africa and the results so far are very good. However, the Midcrop could be less due to dry weather earlier in the season. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.156 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 418 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2210, 2180, and 2150 September, with resistance at 2290, 2350, and 2450 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 September, with resistance at 1700, 1720, and 1750 September.