About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jun 30
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul. 01, 2020 10 Apr 07, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 01, 2020 2402 Jun 24, 2020
WHEAT July Jul. 01, 2020 151 Jun 08, 2020

DJ Survey: 2020 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage Estimates
The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planted acreage, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage USDA USDA
(million acres) Average Range March 2019
Corn 95.205 94.0-96.0 96.990 89.700
Soybeans 84.764 84.3-85.6 83.510 76.100
All Wheat 44.707 44.5-45.0 44.655 45.158
Winter Wheat 30.833 30.7-31.1 30.775 31.159
Spring Wheat 12.567 12.2-12.9 12.590 12.660
Durum Wheat 1.330 1.3-1.4 1.290 1.339
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
Advanced Market 95.8 84.3 44.9 30.8 12.9 1.4
Allendale 95.3 84.8 45.0 31.1 12.6 1.3
DC Analysis 95.5 84.7 44.7 30.8 12.6 1.3
Doane 95.8 84.5 44.7 30.8 12.6 1.3
EDFMan Capital 96.0 84.5 44.6 30.8 12.5 1.3
Futures INTL 95.8 84.3 44.9 30.8 12.8 1.4
Grain Cycles 94.7 84.7 44.8 31.0 12.5 1.3
Hueber Report 94.0 84.8 45.0 31.0 12.8 1.3
INTL FCStone 95.4 85.5 44.5 30.8 12.2 1.4
Sid Love Consulting 95.0 84.5 44.5 30.8 12.4 1.3
Midland Research 94.3 85.1 44.7 30.7 12.5 1.4
Midwest Market Solutions 95.6 85.1 44.6 30.8 12.5 1.4
Northstar 94.8 84.6 44.7 30.8 12.7 1.3
Prime-Ag 96.0 84.5 44.7
RJ O’Brien 95.5 85.0 44.6 30.9 12.4 1.3
RMC 95.5 84.7 44.6 30.8 12.6 1.3
US Commodities 94.3 85.6 44.6
Vantage RM 95.4 84.8 44.7 30.8 12.6 1.3
Western Milling 95.0 85.0 44.5 30.8 12.4 1.3
Zaner Ag Hedge 94.5 84.5 44.9 12.8 1.3

DJ Survey: Jun. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for June 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. Stockpiles on June 1, 2020 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range June 1 2019 Mar 2020
Corn 4,990 4,849-5,405 5,202 7,953
Soybeans 1,381 1,275-1,490 1,783 2,253
Wheat 979 925-998 1,080 1,412
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 4,925 1,408 990
Allendale 4,849 1,403 984
DC Analysis 4,943 1,350 985
Doane 4,890 1,345 985
EDFMan Capital 4,920 1,360 980
Futures INTL 5,056 1,425 972
Grain Cycles 5,405 1,275 990
Hueber Report 4,900 1,490 987
INTL FCStone 4,887 1,401 969
Sid Love Consulting 4,850 1,423 963
Midland Research 5,000 1,350 988
Midwest Market Solutions 5,099 1,340 998
Northstar 4,875 1,413 980
Prime-Ag 4,950 1,450 983
RJ O’Brien 5,091 1,346 996
RMC 5,150 1,383 925
US Commodities 1,385
Vantage RM 5,050 1,352 985
Western Milling 5,004 1,347 980
Zaner Ag Hedge 4,967 1,379 968

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 29
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 25, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/25/2020 06/18/2020 06/27/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 367 1,053
CORN 1,234,690 1,295,845 284,923 33,230,040 41,759,790
FLAXSEED 269 24 0 293 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 100 0 300 299
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 158,657 109,945 56,255 4,008,508 1,638,429
SOYBEANS 324,512 255,810 720,842 36,808,094 37,102,106
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 515,359 686,036 696,142 2,000,953 1,984,089
Total 2,233,487 2,347,760 1,758,162 76,048,555 82,485,790
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 28-Jun 21-Jun 2019 Avg
Cotton Squaring 35 27 35 46
Cotton Setting Bolls 9 6 6 7
Corn Silking 4 2 2 7
Soybeans Emerged 95 89 80 91
Soybeans Blooming 14 5 2 11
Sorghum Planted 96 91 91 95
Sorghum Headed 21 18 19 22
Rice Headed 14 9 9 13
Peanuts Pegging 39 26 43 38
Sunflowers Planted 95 89 92 94
Oats Headed 74 58 54 75
Winter Wheat Harvested 41 29 26 41
Spring Wheat Headed 36 12 20 45
Barley Headed 39 19 25 45

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 6 18 35 35 6
Cotton Last Week 7 19 35 33 7
Cotton Last Year 9 13 30 45 7

Winter Wheat This Week 5 11 32 42 10
Winter Wheat Last Week 5 12 31 43 9
Winter Wheat Last Year 3 7 27 48 15

Spring Wheat This Week 1 5 25 60 9
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 3 21 68 7
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 3 21 67 6

Corn This Week 1 4 22 57 16
Corn Last Week 1 4 23 57 15
Corn Last Year 1 9 32 47 9

Soybeans This Week 1 4 24 58 13
Soybeans Last Week 1 4 25 58 12
Soybeans Last Year 2 9 35 47 7

Sorghum This Week 3 11 41 41 4
Sorghum Last Week 2 11 40 42 5
Sorghum Last Year 0 2 25 63 10

Rice This Week 1 2 23 58 16
Rice Last Week 0 3 24 57 16
Rice Last Year 1 4 27 54 14

Peanuts This Week 1 6 27 59 7
Peanuts Last Week 2 8 26 59 5
Peanuts Last Year 1 5 26 60 8

Oats This Week 2 8 29 51 10
Oats Last Week 2 6 27 55 10
Oats Last Year 2 5 28 56 9

Barley This Week 1 3 21 55 20
Barley Last Week 0 3 22 65 10
Barley Last Year 1 4 23 64 8

Pastures and Ranges This Week 9 17 32 36 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 9 16 32 38 5
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 2 5 24 55 14

WHEAT:
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher with Winter Wheat markets especially strong. It looked to be a short covering rally and there are some ideas that Winter Wheat market have made a seasonal bottom. Yield reports from the Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Spring Wheat was higher in sympathy with the price action in Chicago and despite ideas of good growing conditions and high crop ratings. Those ratings dropped this week in the weekly crop updates from USDA but are still very high. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts. Spring Wheat markets show down trends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Better rains are reported in Europe and Russia. Russia could turn hot and dry starting this week but soil moisture is good for now. Australia remains in good condition. Prices usually move lower and remain down through the harvest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 481, 471, and 465 September, with resistance at 493, 497, and 503 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 434, 424, and 418 September, with resistance at 439, 446, and 454 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 506 and 488 September. Support is at 506, 500, and 498 September, and resistance is at 513, 516, and 522 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mostly a little lower. The new crop continues to show progress under mostly good conditions. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. This appears to be factored into the price as there are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting was more problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain got planted and producers did not plant medium grain if some prevent planting was needed.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1293 and 1363 September. Support is at 1227, 1216, and 1203 September, with resistance at 1241, 1246, and 1266 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on fund buying that was tied to short covering before the end of the month and the end of the quarter. The weather was in the background but is generally considered good for the crops. Futures markets have had hot and dry weather in much of the Midwest last week to support prices, but there was some rain in most areas over the weekend and more yesterday. There have also been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are operating at about 95% of capacity. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices are falling. Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifted in most states and in Europe. Some states are starting to pull back from opening up as the Coronavirus cases have greatly increased and a new pandemic or a continuation of the old one is feared. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 323, 316, and 315 September, and resistance is at 330, 333, and 338 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 308 September. Support is at 291, 286, and 283 September, and resistance is at 301, 304, and 307 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower for the first part of the session on a lack of Chinese demand and ideas of improved growing conditions in the US Midwest. They rallied to close a little higher due to the strength in Wheat and Corn. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time with rains seen over the weekend and more again yesterday. USDA showed very good crop conditions again this week in its weekly update.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 847 and 837 August. Support is at 853, 848, and 837 August, and resistance is at 869, 872, and 880 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 281.00 and 274.00 August. Support is at 282.00, 279.00, and 276.00 August, and resistance is at 288.00, 290.00, and 292.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2710, 2680, and 2650 August, with resistance at 2810, 2850, and 2890 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower despite strong export data from AmSpec. Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher. Canola was higher on a weaker Canadian Dollar The planted area estimates were above trade expectations but below the previous year. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks after weeks of cold and wet weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 471.00, 468.00, and 465.00 November, with resistance at 476.00, 479.00, and 480.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2290 September. Support is at 2310, 2290, and 2260 September, with resistance at 2390, 2430, and 2470 September.

DJ Malaysia June 1-30 Palm Oil Exports 1,629,086 Tons, Up 28.7%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the June 1-30 period are estimated up 28.7% on month at 1,629,086 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
June 1-30 May 1-31
RBD Palm Olein 549,104 537,488
RBD Palm Oil 155,895 106,205
RBD Palm Stearin 154,303 92,005
Crude Palm Oil 383,411 164,025
Total* 1,629,086 1,266,225

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +54 July +145 May +40 July +61 July N/A N/A
July +54 July +40 July +62 July
August +47 Sep +45 Sep +67 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 29
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for June 29, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 453.50 -17.00 July 2020 dn 3.60
Track Thunder Bay 488.60 15.00 Nov 2020 up 5.10
Track Vancouver 497.60 25.00 Nov 2020 up 5.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 597.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 587.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 577.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 557.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 600.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 590.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 580.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 560.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 585.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 515.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 2,400.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 165.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.283)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 339,505 lots, or 16.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,451 5,815 5,414 5,815 5,385 5,643 258 233 497
Sep-20 4,845 4,879 4,801 4,871 4,798 4,839 41 305,654 179,037
Nov-20 4,406 4,451 4,386 4,425 4,391 4,411 20 109 620
Jan-21 4,415 4,427 4,362 4,404 4,403 4,395 -8 32,713 53,431
Mar-21 4,414 4,430 4,399 4,420 4,459 4,412 -47 15 45
May-21 4,440 4,451 4,385 4,426 4,434 4,416 -18 781 3,764
Corn
Turnover: 684,832 lots, or 14.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,093 2,100 2,077 2,077 2,097 2,091 -6 2,602 10,817
Sep-20 2,112 2,113 2,082 2,090 2,099 2,094 -5 529,599 695,442
Nov-20 2,118 2,119 2,095 2,100 2,110 2,106 -4 24,179 42,536
Jan-21 2,124 2,125 2,101 2,102 2,117 2,108 -9 112,172 333,629
Mar-21 2,140 2,140 2,116 2,119 2,132 2,123 -9 1,745 2,426
May-21 2,155 2,155 2,135 2,137 2,152 2,143 -9 14,535 89,775
Soymeal
Turnover: 772,792 lots, or 21.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,628 2,639 2,621 2,628 2,628 2,628 0 4,774 5,693
Aug-20 2,788 2,803 2,788 2,794 2,785 2,795 10 11,934 14,854
Sep-20 2,810 2,823 2,805 2,813 2,802 2,812 10 549,058 1,223,572
Nov-20 2,843 2,858 2,841 2,847 2,838 2,848 10 8,461 54,886
Dec-20 2,878 2,878 2,856 2,864 2,857 2,867 10 6,291 700
Jan-21 2,869 2,881 2,863 2,870 2,860 2,871 11 143,156 774,103
Mar-21 2,757 2,761 2,750 2,758 2,756 2,756 0 497 1,396
May-21 2,689 2,697 2,680 2,690 2,684 2,690 6 48,621 197,094
Palm Oil
Turnover: 743,066 lots, or 36.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,162 5,162 5,162 0 0 0
Aug-20 – – – 4,986 4,986 4,986 0 0 2
Sep-20 4,950 5,014 4,936 4,996 4,956 4,982 26 679,625 363,675
Oct-20 4,802 4,838 4,802 4,826 4,788 4,824 36 13 335
Nov-20 4,830 4,842 4,778 4,818 4,818 4,808 -10 23 182
Dec-20 4,840 4,910 4,742 4,878 4,984 4,840 -144 267 1,561
Jan-21 4,880 4,944 4,878 4,922 4,900 4,916 16 62,446 120,873
Feb-21 – – – 5,098 5,098 5,098 0 0 114
Mar-21 – – – 4,988 4,988 4,988 0 0 19
Apr-21 – – – 5,124 5,124 5,124 0 0 152
May-21 4,982 5,020 4,964 5,004 4,982 4,998 16 692 9,736
Jun-21 – – – 5,086 5,086 5,086 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 286,241 lots, or 16.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,476 5,598 5,476 5,598 5,764 5,536 -228 4 3
Aug-20 – – – 5,482 5,706 5,482 -224 0 1
Sep-20 5,606 5,664 5,598 5,644 5,626 5,636 10 230,088 331,382
Nov-20 5,674 5,730 5,674 5,688 5,694 5,708 14 28 412
Dec-20 – – – 5,736 5,736 5,736 0 0 22
Jan-21 5,658 5,736 5,658 5,704 5,692 5,704 12 52,462 189,287
Mar-21 – – – 5,874 5,874 5,874 0 0 9
May-21 5,728 5,758 5,712 5,726 5,734 5,734 0 3,659 16,604
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322