Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton closed mostly a little lower as bad growing conditions continued in West Texas. USDA showed the deteriorating crop conditions in its weekly updates this week, but the region has seen some showers lately. Signs of an improving economy in the US and around the world really helped ideas of better Cotton demand as did reports of a lot of masks being made for use during the Coronavirus epidemic. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. However, some states are sliding backwards and could impose new restrictions soon. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and Southeast will get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 56.30 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 39,261 bales, from 36,374 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 171 contracts. USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 102,700 bales this year and 87,900 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 4,200 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5860, 5780, and 5640 December, with resistance of 6020, 6110 and 6140 July.
General Comments: FCOJ was mixed in consolidation trading. Florida production is now estimated at less than 68 million boxes. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. The Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US and more lock downs are possible. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. The tree condition is called good. The Valencia harvest is almost over. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 117.00, 115.00, and 112.00 July, with resistance at 122.00, 125.00, and 129.00 July.
General Comments: Futures were little changed in both markets. New York July closed a little higher but the rest of the market was lower. The Brazil harvest is active. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. The Brazilian Real was higher against the US Dollar. Vietnam also had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is improving but is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.665 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 98.47 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. Ice Said that 327 contracts were delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 983 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 95.00, 92.00, and 89.00 September, and resistance is at 99.00, 101.00 and 102.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1170, 1150, and 1130 September, and resistance is at 1210, 1240, and 1270 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower. London futures were the leader on the way up and now appear to be the leader on the way down. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market. Brazil mills are currently producing about 48% Sugar from the cane crush, from about 33% a year ago. The overall crush rate is below year ago levels. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get a dry week. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1170, 1130, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1240, 1260, and 1290 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 355.00, 324.00, and 308.00 August. Support is at 352.00, 342.00, and 340.00 August, and resistance is at 360.00, 370.00, and 375.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. The main crop harvest is now over in West Africa and the results so far are very good. However, the Midcrop could be less due to dry weather earlier in the season. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.181 million bags. ICE said that 24 delivery notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 391 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2440 and 2570 September. Support is at 2270, 2240, and 2200 September, with resistance at 2320, 2340, and 2380 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 September, with resistance at 1710, 1750, and 1770 September.