About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT:
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher. Yield reports from the Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Spring Wheat was lower on ideas of good growing conditions and high crop ratings. Those ratings dropped this week in the weekly crop updates from USDA but are still very high. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts. Spring Wheat markets show down trends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Better rains are reported in Europe and Russia. Russia could turn hot and dry starting this week but soil moisture is good for now. Australia remains in good condition. Prices usually move lower and remain down through the harvest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 471 July. Support is at 476, 470, and 464 July, with resistance at 494, 498, and 507 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 416 July, with resistance at 439, 441, and 450 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 507 and 497 July. Support is at 511, 502, and 497 July, and resistance is at 520, 528, and 530 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher on speculative buying. USDA showed about average progress and good condition in its reports this week. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. This appears to be factored into the price as there are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting was more problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain got planted and producers did not plant medium grain if some prevent planting was needed.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1241 and 1051 July. Support is at 1390, 1366, and 1345 July, with resistance at 1457, 1540, and 1573 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 24
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.23 10.88 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.89 11.60 0.00
Brokens 10.93 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on ideas of beneficial rains and good crop conditions for the Midwest. Futures markets have had hot and dry weather in much of the Midwest last week to support prices, but there was some rain in most areas over the weekend and more yesterday. There have also been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are operating at about 95% of capacity. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices are falling. Ethanol demand is also improving as lock down orders are lifter in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 318 and 308 July. Support is at 321, 319, and 315 July, and resistance is at 329, 335, and 340 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 293 and 285 July. Support is at 299, 295, and 285 July, and resistance is at 310, 315, and 319 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower on a lack of Chinese demand and ideas of improved growing conditions in the US Midwest. USDA did announce a sale of 132,000 tons of US Soybeans to China but ideas are that the deal was struck last week and only announced yesterday. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time with rains seen over the weekend and more again yesterday. USDA showed very good crop conditions again this week in its weekly update.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 870, 865, and 861 July, and resistance is at 881, 896, and 898 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 286.00, 282.00, and 280.00 July, and resistance is at 290.00, 292.00, and 294.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2780, 2700, and 2690 July, with resistance at 2850, 2870, and 2890 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on weaker Crude Oil prices. Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was mostly lower. Canola fell initially on improved growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies and the stronger Canadian Dollar The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks after weeks of cold and wet weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 470.00, 468.00, and 466.00 July, with resistance at 477.00, 478.00, and 482.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2510 and 2650 September. Support is at 2410, 2370, and 2350 September, with resistance at 2470, 2500, and 2580 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +45 July +145 May +40 July +63 July N/A N/A
July +51 July +40 July +65 July
August +52 Sep +45 Sep +67 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 23
WINNIPEG – The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for June 23, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 461.40 -13.00 July 2020 up 0.50
Track Thunder Bay 489.30 15.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.70
Track Vancouver 499.30 25.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 627.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 620.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 610.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 592.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 630.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 622.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 612.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 595.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 605.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 535.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 2,540.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 179.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2175)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 339,875 lots, or 15.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,348 5,357 5,332 5,350 5,353 5,350 -3 181 625
Sep-20 4,730 4,748 4,660 4,708 4,754 4,698 -56 303,410 145,115
Nov-20 4,236 4,342 4,236 4,310 4,347 4,293 -54 168 637
Jan-21 4,363 4,377 4,287 4,340 4,366 4,326 -40 35,211 51,518
Mar-21 4,360 4,360 4,329 4,343 4,396 4,341 -55 8 54
May-21 4,398 4,401 4,330 4,375 4,402 4,358 -44 897 3,556
Corn
Turnover: 469,627 lots, or 9.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,093 2,096 2,079 2,087 2,090 2,086 -4 5,108 11,295
Sep-20 2,090 2,095 2,081 2,086 2,093 2,087 -6 359,428 686,347
Nov-20 2,102 2,107 2,096 2,100 2,105 2,100 -5 9,624 42,456
Jan-21 2,114 2,116 2,103 2,109 2,112 2,108 -4 84,431 314,739
Mar-21 2,130 2,131 2,120 2,124 2,129 2,125 -4 1,973 2,360
May-21 2,149 2,153 2,142 2,146 2,149 2,147 -2 9,063 76,101
Soymeal
Turnover: 663,713 lots, or 18.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,650 2,650 2,639 2,643 2,650 2,647 -3 3,334 10,852
Aug-20 2,801 2,802 2,789 2,802 2,813 2,796 -17 11,120 16,548
Sep-20 2,815 2,822 2,807 2,818 2,831 2,815 -16 504,909 1,232,521
Nov-20 2,849 2,859 2,818 2,857 2,873 2,852 -21 11,802 55,007
Dec-20 2,867 2,875 2,864 2,875 2,882 2,868 -14 5,089 831
Jan-21 2,873 2,883 2,870 2,879 2,894 2,877 -17 110,966 748,290
Mar-21 2,767 2,776 2,767 2,773 2,776 2,772 -4 36 1,287
May-21 2,698 2,701 2,693 2,697 2,703 2,697 -6 16,457 178,493
Palm Oil
Turnover: 733,894 lots, or 37.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,184 5,184 5,184 5,184 5,150 5,184 34 2 3
Aug-20 – – – 5,158 5,176 5,158 -18 0 2
Sep-20 5,144 5,146 5,092 5,114 5,118 5,112 -6 674,019 407,610
Oct-20 4,962 4,962 4,944 4,944 4,958 4,948 -10 4 337
Nov-20 4,932 4,960 4,916 4,960 4,928 4,932 4 15 183
Dec-20 4,930 5,068 4,922 4,984 4,946 4,954 8 25 222
Jan-21 5,044 5,052 5,020 5,042 5,036 5,038 2 59,002 121,614
Feb-21 – – – 5,098 5,098 5,098 0 0 114
Mar-21 – – – 5,160 5,160 5,160 0 0 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,124 5,124 5,124 0 0 152
May-21 5,102 5,126 5,094 5,120 5,114 5,106 -8 827 8,306
Jun-21 – – – 5,086 5,086 5,086 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 230,396 lots, or 13.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,764 5,764 5,764 0 0 3
Aug-20 – – – 5,706 5,706 5,706 0 0 1
Sep-20 5,780 5,780 5,738 5,756 5,774 5,758 -16 194,492 349,990
Nov-20 5,848 5,848 5,810 5,810 5,838 5,822 -16 5 389
Dec-20 5,836 5,836 5,836 5,836 5,890 5,836 -54 1 22
Jan-21 5,830 5,836 5,802 5,810 5,832 5,816 -16 34,653 181,506
Mar-21 – – – 5,874 5,874 5,874 0 0 9
May-21 5,842 5,872 5,832 5,858 5,860 5,856 -4 1,245 13,075
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322