About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 21-Jun 14-Jun 2019 Avg
Cotton Planted 96 89 94 96
Cotton Squaring 27 16 27 26
Cotton Setting Bolls 6 2 4
Corn Silking 2 1 2
Soybeans Planted 96 93 83 93
Soybeans Emerged 89 81 66 85
Soybeans Blooming 5 1 5
Sorghum Planted 91 79 80 87
Sorghum Headed 18 16 16 18
Rice Emerged 96 93 96 99
Rice Headed 9 4 4 6
Peanuts Pegging 26 12 29 22
Sunflowers Planted 89 75 80 86
Oats Headed 58 42 40 61
Winter Wheat Headed 96 91 93 97
Winter Wheat Harvested 29 15 13 26
Spring Wheat Headed 12 4 6 22
Barley Emerged 97 94 96 98
Barley Headed 19 11 7 23

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 7 18 35 33 7
Cotton Last Week 3 14 40 36 7
Cotton Last Year 4 13 33 45 5

Winter Wheat This Week 5 12 31 43 9
Winter Wheat Last Week 7 12 31 41 9
Winter Wheat Last Year 3 8 28 46 15

Spring Wheat This Week 1 3 21 68 7
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 2 17 73 8
Spring Wheat Last Year 0 3 22 67 8

Corn This Week 1 4 23 57 15
Corn Last Week 1 4 24 56 15
Corn Last Year 3 9 32 49 8

Soybeans This Week 1 4 25 58 12
Soybeans Last Week 1 3 24 60 12
Soybeans Last Year 2 8 36 47 7

Sorghum This Week 1 11 40 42 5
Sorghum Last Week 2 8 42 43 5
Sorghum Last Year 0 3 25 61 11

Rice This Week 0 3 24 57 16
Rice Last Week 0 3 26 57 14
Rice Last Year 1 6 27 52 14

Peanuts This Week 2 8 26 59 5
Peanuts Last Week 1 9 25 61 4
Peanuts Last Year 1 4 28 62 5

Oats This Week 2 6 27 55 10
Oats Last Week 1 7 26 56 10
Oats Last Year 2 5 29 56 8

Barley This Week 0 3 22 65 10
Barley Last Week 0 2 21 67 10
Barley Last Year 1 4 23 64 8

Pastures and Ranges This Week 9 16 32 38 5
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 8 14 33 39 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 2 6 24 54 14

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 22
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 18, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/18/2020 06/11/2020 06/20/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 857 367 1,053
CORN 1,295,845 921,272 617,740 31,995,350 41,474,867
FLAXSEED 24 0 24 24 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 200 0 300 299
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 109,945 222,669 112,816 3,849,851 1,582,174
SOYBEANS 254,929 435,469 731,812 36,482,701 36,381,264
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 613,052 564,062 434,511 1,412,610 1,287,947
Total 2,273,895 2,143,672 1,897,760 73,741,203 80,727,628
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Jun 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 59.182 million pounds, in May, 26.7% below the previous
month, and 7.7% below May 2019, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Monday.
In thousand pounds.
public
May 31 Apr 30 May 31 Apr 30 warehouse
2020 2020 2019 2019 stocks/May
pork bellies 59,182 80,728 64,124
orange juice 852,684 838,528 884,215
french fries 894,126 975,074 932,737
other potatoes 202,943 217,686 240,164
chicken rstr (whole) 23,534 22,545 19,583
ham 107,540 113,328 150,109
total pork 466,951 611,222 628,956 413,641
total beef 415,221 479,456 405,151 405,415
total red meat 933,111 1,136,888 1,077,834 867,706
total chicken 856,915 933,498 834,298
total turkey 420,124 417,981 494,439
total poultry 1,285,260 1,357,337 1,332,139 1,212,218
===============================================================================

WHEAT:
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher even as the harvest expanded north into southern Kansas. Yield reports from the region have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Spring Wheat was much lower on ideas of good growing conditions and high crop ratings. Those ratings dropped last night in the weekly crop updates from USDA. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts. Spring Wheat markets show down trends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Better rains are reported in Europe and Russia. Russia could turn hot and dry starting this week but soil moisture is good for now. Australia remains in good condition. Prices usually move lower and remain down through the harvest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 471 July. Support is at 476, 470, and 464 July, with resistance at 494, 498, and 507 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 410 July. Support is at 428, 422, and 416 July, with resistance at 439, 441, and 450 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 516, 511, and 502 July, and resistance is at 528, 530, and 534 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower. New crop months were relatively little changed as new crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. USDA showed about average progress and good condition in its reports last night. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. This appears to be factored into the price as there are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting was more problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain got planted and producers did not plant medium grain if some prevent planting was needed.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1241 and 1051 July. Support is at 1390, 1366, and 1345 July, with resistance at 1457, 1540, and 1573 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on ideas of beneficial rains and good crop conditions for the Midwest. Futures markets have had hot and dry weather in much of the Midwest this week to support prices, but there was some rain in most areas over the weekend and more yesterday. There have also been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are aiming to restore 80% to 85% of capacity kill rates in their plants. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices are falling. Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifter in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 324, 321, and 319 July, and resistance is at 335, 340, and 344 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 293 and 285 July. Support is at 299, 295, and 285 July, and resistance is at 310, 315, and 319 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower on a lack of Chinese demand and ideas of improved growing conditions in the US Midwest. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. However, no large scale purchases have been done in over a week now. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time with rains seen over the weekend and more again yesterday. USDA showed very good crop conditions again last night in its weekly update.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 889 and 920 July. Support is at 870, 865, and 861 July, and resistance is at 881, 896, and 898 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 286.00, 282.00, and 280.00 July, and resistance is at 290.00, 292.00, and 294.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2960 and 3100 July. Support is at 2820, 2780, and 2700 July, with resistance at 2870, 2890, and 2970 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on reports of less production from Malaysia. Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was mostly lower. Canola fell initially on improved growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies. Canola has found support from the weaker Canadian Dollar and ideas that not all areas were in good shape. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks after weeks of cold and wet weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 480.00 July. Support is at 470.00, 468.00, and 466.00 July, with resistance at 478.00, 482.00, and 488.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2510 and 2650 September. Support is at 2410, 2370, and 2350 September, with resistance at 2500, 2580, and 2620 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +45 July +145 May +40 July +64 July N/A N/A
July +50 July +50 July +66 July
August +48 Sep +52 Sep +66 Aug

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 632.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 622.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 612.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 595.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 635.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 625.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 615.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 597.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 610.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 550.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 2,540.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 180.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2725)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 309,443 lots, or 14.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,391 5,399 5,341 5,351 5,355 5,353 -2 168 786
Sep-20 4,797 4,815 4,718 4,729 4,797 4,754 -43 271,506 154,477
Nov-20 4,357 4,365 4,312 4,343 4,351 4,347 -4 69 669
Jan-21 4,390 4,400 4,333 4,361 4,387 4,366 -21 36,774 51,578
Mar-21 4,398 4,398 4,394 4,394 4,406 4,396 -10 2 47
May-21 4,418 4,434 4,371 4,398 4,409 4,402 -7 924 3,818
Corn
Turnover: 841,059 lots, or 17.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,086 2,104 2,080 2,087 2,094 2,090 -4 1,184 13,325
Sep-20 2,094 2,108 2,079 2,088 2,109 2,093 -16 623,434 675,007
Nov-20 2,105 2,117 2,095 2,105 2,114 2,105 -9 27,383 42,588
Jan-21 2,102 2,128 2,101 2,115 2,116 2,112 -4 160,778 300,084
Mar-21 2,118 2,141 2,118 2,130 2,131 2,129 -2 3,425 2,293
May-21 2,146 2,161 2,138 2,150 2,151 2,149 -2 24,855 76,449
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,086,284 lots, or 59.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,657 2,684 2,641 2,642 2,657 2,650 -7 4,975 12,493
Aug-20 2,801 2,841 2,790 2,791 2,806 2,813 7 17,244 17,481
Sep-20 2,825 2,861 2,810 2,810 2,828 2,831 3 1,542,177 1,276,198
Nov-20 2,859 2,898 2,848 2,848 2,865 2,873 8 33,401 55,443
Dec-20 2,884 2,910 2,864 2,865 2,888 2,882 -6 2,876 749
Jan-21 2,892 2,922 2,871 2,871 2,890 2,894 4 428,367 747,342
Mar-21 2,782 2,804 2,768 2,771 2,786 2,776 -10 130 1,290
May-21 2,702 2,724 2,692 2,695 2,703 2,703 0 57,114 176,850
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,159,254 lots, or 59.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,114 5,164 5,114 5,162 5,202 5,150 -52 4 5
Aug-20 – – – 5,176 5,176 5,176 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,148 5,162 5,066 5,104 5,156 5,118 -38 1,065,871 429,745
Oct-20 4,968 4,996 4,898 4,944 4,996 4,958 -38 20 340
Nov-20 4,820 4,964 4,820 4,926 4,948 4,928 -20 16 186
Dec-20 4,990 4,990 4,924 4,934 4,958 4,946 -12 13 221
Jan-21 5,048 5,072 4,994 5,016 5,068 5,036 -32 92,522 120,248
Feb-21 – – – 5,098 5,098 5,098 0 0 114
Mar-21 – – – 5,160 5,164 5,160 -4 0 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,124 5,124 5,124 0 0 152
May-21 5,130 5,138 5,064 5,102 5,146 5,114 -32 808 8,078
Jun-21 – – – 5,086 5,086 5,086 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 359,148 lots, or 20.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,764 5,764 5,764 0 0 3
Aug-20 – – – 5,706 5,706 5,706 0 0 1
Sep-20 5,786 5,802 5,742 5,754 5,790 5,774 -16 303,534 359,900
Nov-20 5,838 5,838 5,838 5,838 5,844 5,838 -6 2 386
Dec-20 – – – 5,890 5,890 5,890 0 0 23
Jan-21 5,842 5,858 5,802 5,812 5,848 5,832 -16 54,079 180,292
Mar-21 – – – 5,874 5,874 5,874 0 0 9
May-21 5,882 5,884 5,830 5,838 5,878 5,860 -18 1,533 12,363
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322