About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed higher as bad growing conditions continued in West Texas. Signs of an improving economy in the US and around the world really helped ideas of better Cotton demand as did reports of a lot of masks being made for use during the Coronavirus epidemic. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get showers in eastern areas, otherwise dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal in the Delta and will trend to near to above normal in the Southeast. Texas will have dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 55.86 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 33,323 bales, from 32,026 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5980, 5870, and 5730 July, with resistance of 6210, 6230 and 6240 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 16, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 202,288
: Positions :
: 29,633 29,081 34,775 56,903 120,988 68,862 7,582 190,174 192,426: 12,115 9,862
: Changes from: June 9, 2020 (Change in open interest: -34,157) :
: 462 3,792 -22,367 -8,725 -14,676 -2,183 -1,083 -32,813 -34,333: -1,344 176
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.6 14.4 17.2 28.1 59.8 34.0 3.7 94.0 95.1: 6.0 4.9
: Total Traders: 242 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 56 61 56 61 42 21 187 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower but found some chart based buying after making initial targets for the move down. Florida production is now estimated at less than 68 million boxes. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. Southern areas are cooler and have seen more frequent showers. The tree condition is called good. The Valencia harvest is almost over. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get periods of showers for much of the week. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 115.00 and 105.00 July. Support is at 115.00, 112.00, and 111.00 July, with resistance at 122.00, 125.00, and 129.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 16, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,535 :
: Positions :
: 6,640 9,457 559 0 46 2,200 465 108 459 841 2,528 :
: Changes from: June 9, 2020 :
: 638 -570 19 -1 -1 -332 114 -2 -230 256 -67 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 45.7 65.1 3.8 0.0 0.3 15.1 3.2 0.7 3.2 5.8 17.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 22 17 . 0 . 11 4 . 8 9 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in both New York and London as the Brazil harvest is underway and starting to expand. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. Vietnam also had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is improving but is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Indonesian producers are more active sellers.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.663 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 97.26 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. Ice Said that 178 contracts were delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 178 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 92.00, 89.00, and 86.00 July, and resistance is at 98.00, 100.00 and 103.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1120 and 1080 July. Support is at 1130, 1110, and 1080 July, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1230 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 16, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 322,767
: Positions :
: 30,632 54,785 80,532 132,613 158,232 62,690 19,288 306,468 312,836: 16,299 9,931
: Changes from: June 9, 2020 (Change in open interest: -23,083) :
: 1,629 8,293 -15,074 -9,850 -15,585 -1,386 -1,800 -24,680 -24,165: 1,598 1,083
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 17.0 25.0 41.1 49.0 19.4 6.0 95.0 96.9: 5.0 3.1
: Total Traders: 438 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 117 102 131 124 112 47 28 355 329:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/16/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
169,256 96,922 68,595 17,287 12,628 1,659
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.3% 40.5% 10.2% 7.5% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
150 50 37 13 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
8,351 43,103 11,721 5,333 6,135 20,831
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 25.5% 6.9% 3.2% 3.6% 12.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 30 15 13 14 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,153 4,584
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.2% 2.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower despite stronger petroleum prices. The market acts as if there is a short supply of White Sugar available. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market but might switch back to producing ethanol soon if prices continue to improve for the ethanol. Brazil mills are currently producing about 48% Sugar from the cane crush, from about 33% a year ago. The overall crush rate is below year ago levels. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get a dry week. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1170, 1130, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1240, 1260, and 1290 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 355.00, 324.00, and 308.00 August. Support is at 363.00, 360.00, and 352.00 August, and resistance is at 384.00, 394.00, and 400.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 16, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,119,741
: Positions :
: 101,945 79,317 161,079 485,886 762,876 287,994 58,122 1,036,905 1,061,395: 82,836 58,346
: Changes from: June 9, 2020 (Change in open interest: -75,251) :
: 3,920 -9,161 -46,236 -30,367 -8,174 2,409 -3,686 -70,274 -67,257: -4,977 -7,994
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 7.1 14.4 43.4 68.1 25.7 5.2 92.6 94.8: 7.4 5.2
: Total Traders: 250 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 49 74 87 75 39 18 224 183:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/16/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
116,549 53,142 91,970 13,276 4,252 4,594
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 45.6% 78.9% 11.4% 3.6% 3.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
121 39 47 12 3 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
25,395 553 5,534 2,946 1,398 6,242
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
21.8% 0.5% 4.7% 2.5% 1.2% 5.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
31 2 12 10 6 13
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,419 2,005
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 1.7%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed slightly lower and London closed lower for the week. New York is showing a double top on the charts at about 2300 July but found little in the way of follow through selling last week. London has been the weaker market. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. However, the Midcrop could be less due to dry weather earlier in the season. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.204 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 282 contracts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2140 September, with resistance at 2290, 2320, and 2360 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 September, with resistance at 1710, 1750, and 1770 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 16, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 233,367
: Positions :
: 24,131 37,784 61,188 85,514 108,939 52,609 17,853 223,442 225,764: 9,925 7,603
: Changes from: June 9, 2020 (Change in open interest: -14,184) :
: -2,791 1,062 -913 -8,167 -14,433 -646 -473 -12,517 -14,756: -1,667 572
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.3 16.2 26.2 36.6 46.7 22.5 7.7 95.7 96.7: 4.3 3.3
: Total Traders: 218 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 53 66 44 40 37 20 177 156:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/16/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
307,693 166,355 222,185 42,740 12,156 14,548
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.1% 72.2% 13.9% 4.0% 4.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
142 50 48 14 6 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,096 3,751 11,177 2,290 546 39,895
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.5% 1.2% 3.6% 0.7% 0.2% 13.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
29 10 18 11 10 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,592 3,435
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.5% 1.1%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322