About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed higher. Signs of a deteriorating economy in the US and around the world during the Coronavirus epidemic hurt prices but deteriorating crop conditions supported prices. There is concern that China will stop fulfilling its obligations in the Phase One trade deal due to ramped up US rhetoric on the Chinese response to the Coronavirus epidemic and now the unrest in Hong Kong. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get showers in eastern areas, otherwise dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal in the Delta and will trend to near to above normal in the Southeast. Texas will have dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 54.47 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 32,026 bales, from 31,253 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5900, 5870, and 5730 July, with resistance of 6210, 6230 and 6240 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower on follow through speculative selling. The selling came for chart based reasons as futures were unable to take out recent highs even though USDA released reduced production estimates for US production. Florida production is now estimated at less than 68 million boxes. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. However, inventories are leveling off or dropping from year ago levels. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. Southern areas are cooler and have seen more frequent showers. The tree condition is called good. The Valencia harvest is in full swing. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get periods of showers for much of the week. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 115.00 and 105.00 July. Support is at 115.00, 112.00, and 111.00 July, with resistance at 122.00, 125.00, and 129.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a higher in New York and in London. The Brazil harvest is underway and starting to expand. The Brazilian Real was weaker. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees and production. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. The Brazilian Real has been trading lower against the US Dollar to enhance sales prices at origin. Vietnam also had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Shipping logistics have improved, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Indonesian producers are more active sellers, but Vietnamese producers are mostly quiet.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.668 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 97.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 93.00, 92.00, and 89.00 July, and resistance is at 98.00, 100.00 and 103.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1120 and 1080 July. Support is at 1130, 1080, and 1050 July, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1230 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was mixed and London closed lower despite rallies in world petroleum markets. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows in rivers from China as China builds dams for power and flooding control.
Overnight News: Brazil will get a dry week. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1170, 1130, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1240, 1260, and 1290 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 382.00, 374.00, and 370.00 August, and resistance is at 398.00, 400.00, and 405.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed mixed to lower and London closed lower. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. However, the Midcrop could be less due to dry weather earlier in the season. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.213 million bags. ICE said that 145 delivery notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 282 contracts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2310, 2090, and 2040 July. Support is at 2310, 2280, and 2260 July, with resistance at 2400, 2420, and 2450 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1810, 1790, and 1760 July, with resistance at 1850, 1890, and 1910 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322