About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for June USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed June 1 99.0 95.5- 99.9
Placed in May 97.5 81.2- 102.2
Marketed in May 73.8 72.7- 76.8
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
June 1 in May in May
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.4 99.6 73.5
Allendale Inc. 99.0 99.8 75.7
HedgersEdge 97.9 91.4 74.3
Linn Group 95.5 81.2 76.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 99.7 101.3 73.2
NFC Markets 99.2 98.1 72.7
Texas A&M Extension 99.9 102.2 73.2
U.S. Commodities 98.6 94.5 72.9

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly lower as the Great Plains harvest expands into Kansas. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts and this is especially true for the HRW market. Spring Wheat markets show up trends as the US and Canadian crops are getting planted and are reported to be in mostly very good to excellent condition. The harvest has started in the central and southern Great Plains with variable yields reported because of freeze damage and then stress from hot and dry weather, but the national yields from USDA were a little higher than expected and any cuts to HRW production were offset by better SRW and White Wheat production. Reports from the country indicate better than expected HRW yields in southern areas. It remains hot and dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Better rains are reported in Europe and Russia. Russia could turn hot and dry starting this week but soil moisture is good for now. Australia remains in good condition. The harvest is underway and prices usually start to move lower.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Egypt bought 240,000 tons of Russian and Eastern European Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 471 July. Support is at 476, 470, and 464 July, with resistance at 494, 498, and 507 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 410 July. Support is at 428, 422, and 416 July, with resistance at 439, 441, and 450 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 516, 511, and 502 July, and resistance is at 528, 530, and 534 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in new crop months and lower in old crop July. The longs have been liquidating July positions as have the shorts. So far the urgency has been with the longs but the shorts might need to get more aggressive in July and push futures back up. New crop months have been supported on spread action against July, but remain fundamentally mostly bearish. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting has been problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain will get planted and producers will not plant medium grain if some prevent planting is needed.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be generally above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to own with objectives of 1341 and 1051 July. Support is at 1366, 1345, and 1316 July, with resistance at 1457, 1540, and 1573 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was narrowly mixed. Meats processors are back and have restored up to 95% of capacity kill rates in their plants. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices will continue to fall. Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifter in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time. The US weather and growing conditions are becoming more important as Corn enters its greatest demand time for moisture. It will be hot and dry this week in the Great Plains and Midwest, but forecasts call for more rains after that. This implies that generally good growing conditions should continue. Continued hot and dry weather would imply yield loss potential and be a reason to see prices move sharply higher as funds and speculators in general are short the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 324, 321, and 319 July, and resistance is at 335, 340, and 344 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 293 and 285 July. Support is at 299, 295, and 285 July, and resistance is at 310, 315, and 319 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were mixed on good growing weather and no news of additional Chinese demand. China is thought to have bought more than 1.0 million tons of US Soybeans in the past week, defying the talk that it would avoid US Soybeans. Prices for US Soybeans are cheap in the world market when compared to those from Brazil. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time, but traders are watching for potentially hot and dry weather for an extended period that could cut yield potential. Forecasts call for a hot and dry week this week, but rains are expected after that.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 865, 861, and 857 July, and resistance is at 877, 881, and 896 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 292.00 and 298.00 July. Support is at 286.00, 282.00, and 280.00 July, and resistance is at 290.00, 292.00, and 294.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2780, 2700, and 2690 July, with resistance at 2840, 2860, and 2960 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher along with world petroleum markets. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was mixed. Drier conditions in parts of the Prairies were bullish for futures. Chicago Soybean Oil closed higher as well. The weather has been warmer and drier the past couple of weeks after weeks of cold and wet weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 475.00 and 480.00 July. Support is at 470.00, 468.00, and 466.00 July, with resistance at 478.00, 482.00, and 488.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2290, 2260, and 2250 September, with resistance at 2400, 2440, and 2500 September.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jun 18
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended June 14, 2020. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2457.7 596.3 235.1 350.9 59.2 865.4 166.7 123.7 5330.4
Week Ago 2257.7 551.4 216.5 366.2 54.0 950.1 208.5 91.8 5127.4
Year Ago 2241.2 665.9 133.2 262.6 58.5 1028.7 335.3 316.6 5718.5
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 565.5 116.5 53.8 79.7 11.0 446.0 59.5 7.2 1436.6
Week Ago 553.3 94.8 34.5 86.3 7.4 453.9 83.5 6.7 1427.0
To Date 18917.3 4442.2 2262.8 3498.9 326.4 17468.9 3517.4 316.9 54288.1
Year Ago 18789.5 3970.3 1916.8 3109.9 357.5 15815.7 2984.6 490.5 50894.5
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 537.2 169.5 8.8 21.2 5.6 231.6 43.7 33.2 1125.6
Week Ago 515.3 98.1 2.0 56.9 5.7 185.5 26.5 44.2 1012.1
To Date 17259.3 5386.4 410.7 1840.4 173.9 9411.4 2300.0 380.6 41947.5
Year Ago 18032.8 4372.3 383.6 1902.4 134.5 8595.7 1754.7 1257.4 42328.9
EXPORTS
This Week 322.6 75.3 10.0 59.5 8.9 80.3 11.5 0.0 572.0
Week Ago 444.3 76.7 8.8 9.5 19.8 157.0 2.0 40.6 862.9
To Date 14883.2 4451.4 1418.7 1859.4 188.6 8595.8 2268.8 204.1 37493.5
Year Ago 15922.6 3809.9 1392.1 2069.6 223.0 8045.4 1765.2 1527.0 38987.4
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 32.4 11.4 17.2 22.3 1.5 186.5 5.1 9.1 326.5
Week Ago 110.7 15.1 15.8 22.5 1.6 206.0 8.5 32.9 442.7
To Date 3398.8 391.1 661.4 1396.1 47.3 9068.0 208.8 605.1 17295.3
Year Ago 3542.9 304.1 268.0 997.5 51.1 8106.6 184.2 1009.4 16401.4
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +49 July +145 May +50 July +64 July N/A N/A
July +52 July +50 July +66 July
August +54 Sep +52 Sep +67 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 18
WINNIPEG, June 18 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 460.30 -13.00 July 2020 unchanged
Basis: Thunder Bay 490.90 15.00 July 2020 up 1.00
Basis: Vancouver 500.90 25.00 July 2020 up 1.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 632.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 620.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 610.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 597.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 635.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 622.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 612.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 600.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 605.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 550.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 2,530.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 183.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2680)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 415,226 lots, or 19.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,403 5,403 5,324 5,324 5,329 5,354 25 136 1,007
Sep-20 4,873 4,920 4,815 4,835 4,839 4,863 24 357,622 174,046
Nov-20 4,482 4,482 4,360 4,366 4,415 4,407 -8 474 672
Jan-21 4,452 4,496 4,377 4,382 4,438 4,437 -1 55,310 50,162
Mar-21 4,564 4,564 4,405 4,420 4,460 4,477 17 25 44
May-21 4,450 4,508 4,400 4,408 4,450 4,454 4 1,659 4,061
Corn
Turnover: 679,983 lots, or 14.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,112 2,114 2,091 2,104 2,112 2,103 -9 2,538 13,468
Sep-20 2,127 2,130 2,107 2,121 2,135 2,118 -17 510,813 710,253
Nov-20 2,131 2,133 2,111 2,127 2,142 2,123 -19 23,774 43,356
Jan-21 2,136 2,139 2,114 2,130 2,149 2,126 -23 124,212 291,256
Mar-21 2,145 2,150 2,132 2,143 2,158 2,139 -19 3,512 3,007
May-21 2,172 2,173 2,153 2,166 2,179 2,162 -17 15,134 68,206
Soymeal
Turnover: 926,595 lots, or 26.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,642 2,645 2,637 2,644 2,642 2,640 -2 2,117 15,403
Aug-20 2,800 2,801 2,783 2,787 2,794 2,787 -7 11,630 20,425
Sep-20 2,820 2,821 2,802 2,811 2,813 2,808 -5 706,931 1,359,717
Nov-20 2,861 2,861 2,841 2,850 2,851 2,847 -4 13,688 58,659
Dec-20 2,876 2,880 2,867 2,871 2,875 2,871 -4 4,529 763
Jan-21 2,883 2,886 2,869 2,874 2,880 2,875 -5 146,401 774,241
Mar-21 2,773 2,774 2,769 2,771 2,778 2,770 -8 44 1,314
May-21 2,702 2,704 2,691 2,694 2,698 2,695 -3 41,255 170,551
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,318,047 lots, or 67.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,148 5,380 5,148 5,380 5,154 5,264 110 6 2
Aug-20 5,126 5,222 5,110 5,172 5,038 5,170 132 8 1
Sep-20 5,014 5,162 4,996 5,150 5,018 5,090 72 1,218,495 462,085
Oct-20 4,824 4,966 4,824 4,966 4,836 4,910 74 28 340
Nov-20 4,760 4,918 4,760 4,916 4,746 4,852 106 91 187
Dec-20 4,722 4,936 4,722 4,936 4,810 4,872 62 46 221
Jan-21 4,902 5,064 4,902 5,050 4,908 4,994 86 97,444 121,288
Feb-21 – – – 5,092 4,962 5,092 130 0 114
Mar-21 – – – 5,056 5,044 5,056 12 0 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,114 4,980 5,114 134 0 152
May-21 4,988 5,138 4,988 5,124 4,992 5,060 68 1,928 7,513
Jun-21 5,086 5,086 5,086 5,086 4,894 5,086 192 1 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 551,226 lots, or 31.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,782 5,782 5,782 5,782 5,718 5,782 64 1 5
Aug-20 – – – 5,722 5,660 5,722 62 0 1
Sep-20 5,680 5,808 5,666 5,804 5,668 5,750 82 455,982 398,564
Nov-20 5,778 5,872 5,778 5,834 5,728 5,812 84 11 393
Dec-20 5,826 5,886 5,794 5,886 5,688 5,840 152 5 21
Jan-21 5,736 5,858 5,734 5,854 5,734 5,806 72 93,353 174,875
Mar-21 – – – 5,754 5,754 5,754 0 0 10
May-21 5,774 5,880 5,774 5,868 5,772 5,858 86 1,874 10,724
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322