About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jun 18
For the week ended Jun 11, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 504.8 0.0 6333.3 6335.7 5674.4 0.0
hrw 229.0 0.0 2327.2 2599.9 2038.7 0.0
srw 57.0 0.0 588.6 941.6 571.1 0.0
hrs 127.2 0.0 1897.1 1530.9 1767.1 0.0
white 88.3 0.0 1233.9 1051.2 1059.4 0.0
durum 3.3 0.0 286.7 212.1 238.2 0.0
corn 357.8 114.8 41490.8 48445.1 10361.1 3553.2
soybeans 538.1 1382.1 44199.1 47428.2 7593.0 5534.4
soymeal 124.0 58.0 10850.1 11228.0 2369.3 343.9
soyoil 6.4 0.0 1166.0 766.1 265.5 11.0
upland cotton 97.6 148.4 16822.9 15049.0 4864.9 3176.1
pima cotton 4.9 0.0 565.7 720.5 131.2 33.9
sorghum -3.3 110.0 4013.2 1562.0 941.3 388.0
barley 0.0 0.0 40.7 50.5 40.2 0.0
rice 14.8 5.7 3300.3 3232.3 438.7 62.7

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for June USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed June 1 99.0 95.5- 99.9
Placed in May 97.5 81.2- 102.2
Marketed in May 73.8 72.7- 76.8
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
June 1 in May in May
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.4 99.6 73.5
Allendale Inc. 99.0 99.8 75.7
HedgersEdge 97.9 91.4 74.3
Linn Group 95.5 81.2 76.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 99.7 101.3 73.2
NFC Markets 99.2 98.1 72.7
Texas A&M Extension 99.9 102.2 73.2
U.S. Commodities 98.6 94.5 72.9

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower as the Great Plains harvest expands into Kansas. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts and this is especially true for the HRW market. Spring Wheat markets show down trends as the US and Canadian crops are getting planted and are reported to be in mostly very good to excellent condition. The harvest has started in the central and southern Great Plains with variable yields reported because of freeze damage and then stress from hot and dry weather, but the national yields from USDA were a little higher than expected and any cuts to HRW production were offset by better SRW and White Wheat production. It remains hot and dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Better rains are reported in Europe and Russia. Russia could turn hot and dry starting this week but soil moisture is good for now. Australia remains in good condition. The harvest is underway and prices usually start to move lower.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 489 July. Support is at 487, 482, and 476 July, with resistance at 498, 507, and 509 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 410 July. Support is at 431, 428, and 422 July, with resistance at 439, 441, and 450 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 516, 511, and 502 July, and resistance is at 525, 528, and 530 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in new crop months and much lower in old crop July. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting has been problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain will get planted and producers will not plant medium grain if some prevent planting is needed.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be generally above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1431, 1430, and 1402 July, with resistance at 1540, 1573, and 1605 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher. Meats processors are back and are aiming to restre 80% to 85% of capacity kill rates in their plants. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices will fall. This will take some time, but it is starting to come to pass. Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifter in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time. The US weather and growing conditions are becoming more important as Corn enters its greatest demand time for moisture. It will be hot and dry this week in the Great Plains and Midwest, but forecasts call for more rains after that. This implies that generally good growing conditions should continue. Continued hot and dry weather would imply yield loss potential and be a reason to see prices move sharply higher as funds and speculators in general are short the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 324, 321, and 319 July, and resistance is at 335, 340, and 344 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 293 and 285 July. Support is at 299, 295, and 285 July, and resistance is at 310, 315, and 319 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher on rumors of Chinese demand on good growing weather and no news of additional Chinese demand. China is thought to have bought more than 1.0 million tons of US Soybeans in the past week, defying the talk that it would avoid US Soybeans due to the war of words between the two countries on Hong Kong and general human rights issues. The Chinese moves to clamp down on Hong Kong dissent and in western parts of the country was going to be a big negative for bilateral relations as the political situation between the US and China has deteriorated. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time, but traders are watching for potentially hot and dry weather for an extended period that could cut yield potential. Forecasts call for a hot and dry week this week, but rains are expected after that.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 879, 883, and 889 July. Support is at 861, 857, and 852 July, and resistance is at 877, 881, and 896 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 292.00 and 298.00 July. Support is at 286.00, 282.00, and 280.00 July, and resistance is at 290.00, 292.00, and 294.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2780, 2700, and 2690 July, with resistance at 2840, 2860, and 2960 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed unchanged. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher. Drier conditions in parts of the Prairies were bullish for futures. Chicago Soybean Oil closed higher as well. The weather has been warmer and drier the past couple of weeks after weeks of cold and wet weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 475.00 and 480.00 July. Support is at 470.00, 468.00, and 466.00 July, with resistance at 478.00, 482.00, and 488.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2290, 2260, and 2250 September, with resistance at 2400, 2440, and 2500 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +45 July +145 May +50 July +67 July N/A N/A
July +52 July +50 July +67 July
August +48 Sep +52 Sep +68 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 17
WINNIPEG, June 17 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 460.30 -13.00 July 2020 up 2.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 489.90 15.00 July 2020 up 0.50
Basis: Vancouver 499.90 25.00 July 2020 up 0.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 607.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 597.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 587.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 577.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 610.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 600.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 590.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 580.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 585.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 530.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 2,460.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 180.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2755)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 255,793 lots, or 12.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,331 5,340 5,302 5,340 5,335 5,329 -6 112 1,069
Sep-20 4,817 4,876 4,804 4,869 4,799 4,839 40 230,100 184,371
Nov-20 4,406 4,434 4,400 4,412 4,398 4,415 17 162 678
Jan-21 4,427 4,456 4,412 4,444 4,424 4,438 14 25,085 46,042
Mar-21 4,427 4,469 4,427 4,468 4,401 4,460 59 9 44
May-21 4,439 4,466 4,426 4,460 4,430 4,450 20 325 4,142
Corn
Turnover: 848,396 lots, or 18.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,105 2,125 2,103 2,113 2,093 2,112 19 672 13,934
Sep-20 2,122 2,149 2,122 2,129 2,118 2,135 17 648,457 717,037
Nov-20 2,135 2,153 2,132 2,132 2,131 2,142 11 23,840 44,340
Jan-21 2,153 2,162 2,137 2,138 2,146 2,149 3 153,617 294,141
Mar-21 2,166 2,171 2,146 2,147 2,159 2,158 -1 4,038 3,468
May-21 2,180 2,191 2,169 2,173 2,178 2,179 1 17,772 66,194
Soymeal
Turnover: 936,671 lots, or 26.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,642 2,649 2,633 2,647 2,642 2,642 0 3,434 16,969
Aug-20 2,793 2,803 2,782 2,797 2,794 2,794 0 16,160 21,177
Sep-20 2,813 2,824 2,802 2,816 2,815 2,813 -2 673,607 1,374,676
Nov-20 2,854 2,862 2,839 2,855 2,854 2,851 -3 16,166 58,267
Dec-20 2,877 2,887 2,861 2,881 2,877 2,875 -2 6,703 834
Jan-21 2,883 2,889 2,866 2,882 2,885 2,880 -5 191,868 768,402
Mar-21 2,772 2,783 2,765 2,779 2,774 2,778 4 66 1,322
May-21 2,703 2,705 2,690 2,703 2,704 2,698 -6 28,667 155,701
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,030,028 lots, or 51.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,154 5,154 5,154 0 0 2
Aug-20 5,038 5,038 5,038 5,038 5,040 5,038 -2 1 1
Sep-20 5,016 5,062 4,992 5,004 5,012 5,018 6 952,487 412,623
Oct-20 4,826 4,866 4,814 4,836 4,810 4,836 26 6 346
Nov-20 4,732 4,770 4,722 4,750 4,730 4,746 16 58 199
Dec-20 4,816 4,818 4,796 4,818 4,792 4,810 18 3 186
Jan-21 4,904 4,942 4,890 4,894 4,894 4,908 14 75,483 116,705
Feb-21 4,968 4,978 4,948 4,956 4,930 4,962 32 4 114
Mar-21 – – – 5,044 5,044 5,044 0 0 17
Apr-21 – – – 4,980 4,938 4,980 42 0 152
May-21 5,008 5,020 4,974 4,986 4,990 4,992 2 1,986 7,303
Jun-21 – – – 4,894 4,894 4,894 0 0 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 369,997 lots, or 21.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,718 5,718 5,718 0 0 5
Aug-20 – – – 5,660 5,660 5,660 0 0 1
Sep-20 5,642 5,710 5,634 5,668 5,650 5,668 18 309,927 376,952
Nov-20 5,718 5,734 5,718 5,734 5,718 5,728 10 3 394
Dec-20 – – – 5,688 5,688 5,688 0 0 22
Jan-21 5,722 5,772 5,712 5,732 5,722 5,734 12 59,267 169,518
Mar-21 – – – 5,754 5,754 5,754 0 0 10
May-21 5,766 5,802 5,756 5,774 5,770 5,772 2 800 10,223
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322