About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for June USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed June 1 99.0 95.5- 99.9
Placed in May 97.5 81.2- 102.2
Marketed in May 73.8 72.7- 76.8
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
June 1 in May in May
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.4 99.6 73.5
Allendale Inc. 99.0 99.8 75.7
HedgersEdge 97.9 91.4 74.3
Linn Group 95.5 81.2 76.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 99.7 101.3 73.2
NFC Markets 99.2 98.1 72.7
Texas A&M Extension 99.9 102.2 73.2
U.S. Commodities 98.6 94.5 72.9

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower as the Great Plains harvest starts to ramp up. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts and this is especially true for the HRW market. Spring Wheat markets show down trends as the US and Canadian crops are getting planted and are reported to be in mostly very good to excellent condition. The harvest has started in the central and southern Great Plains with variable yields reported because of freeze damage and then stress from hot and dry weather, but the national yields from USDA were a little higher than expected and any cuts to HRW production were offset by better SRW and White Wheat production. It remains hot and dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Better rains are reported in Europe and Russia. Russia could turn hot and dry starting this week but soil moisture is good for now. Australia remains in good condition. The harvest is underway and prices usually start to move lower.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 489 July. Support is at 487, 482, and 476 July, with resistance at 498, 507, and 509 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 433 and 410 July. Support is at 431, 428, and 422 July, with resistance at 441, 450, and 456 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 505, 492, and 487 July. Support is at 511, 502, and 492 July, and resistance is at 519, 525, and 528 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in new crop months and much lower in old crop July. The funds were selling as the buy side seemed to run out of steam yesterday. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting has been problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain will get planted and producers will not plant medium grain if some prevent planting is needed.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be generally above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1572, 1560, and 1544 July, with resistance at 1672, 1708, and 1756 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 17
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.41 10.99 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.07 11.72 0.00
Brokens 11.04 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was mixed after USDA dropped crop condition ratings yesterday. Futures surged to resistance areas but then worked lower on ideas of good weather for the crops in the US. Meats processors are back and are aiming to restore 80% to 85% of capacity kill rates in their plants. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices will fall. This will take some time, but it is starting to come to pass. Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifter in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time. The US weather and growing conditions are becoming more important as Corn enters its greatest demand time for moisture. It will be hot and dry this week in the Great Plains and Midwest, but forecasts call for more rains after that. This implies that generally good growing conditions should continue. Continued hot and dry weather would imply yield loss potential and be a reason to see prices move sharply higher as funds and speculators in general are short the market. Oats were lower and broke through up trend lines on the charts
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 326, 324, and 321 July, and resistance is at 335, 340, and 344 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 293 and 285 July. Support is at 295, 285, and 282 July, and resistance is at 307, 310, and 315 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little lower on good growing weather and no news of additional Chinese demand. China is thought to have bought more than 1.0 million tons of US Soybeans in the past week, defying the talk that it would avoid US Soybeans due to the war of words between the two countries on Hong Kong and general human rights issues. The Chinese moves to clamp down on Hong Kong dissent and in western parts of the country was going to be a big negative for bilateral relations as the political situation between the US and China has deteriorated. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time, but traders are watching for potentially hot and dry weather for an extended period that could cut yield potential. Forecasts call for a hot and dry week this week, but rains are expected after that.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 879, 883, and 889 July. Support is at 863, 861, and 857 July, and resistance is at 873, 877, and 881 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 292.00 and 298.00 July. Support is at 286.00, 282.00, and 280.00 July, and resistance is at 292.00, 294.00, and 296.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2780, 2700, and 2690 July, with resistance at 2840, 2860, and 2960 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on higher outside markets and better demand. AmSpec and SGS reported much improved demand this week. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher. Drier conditions in parts of the Prairies were bullish for futures. Chicago Soybean Oil closed higher as well. The weather has been warmer and drier the past couple of weeks after weeks of cold and wet weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 475.00 and 480.00 July. Support is at 470.00, 468.00, and 466.00 July, with resistance at 478.00, 482.00, and 488.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2380, 2280, and 2240 August, with resistance at 2400, 2420, and 2510 August.

Malaysia’s Jun 1-15 palm oil exports rose 67.2 pct -SGS – Reuters News
17-Jun-2020 02:35:48 AM
To view this story on Refinitiv Workspace, click here
SINGAPORE, Jun 17 (Reuters) – Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jun. 1-15 rose 67.2 percent to 916,871 tonnes from 548,417 tonnes shipped during May. 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Wednesday.
Breakdown of SGS palm export figures for Jun. 1-15 compared to a month ago (in tonnes):
PALM PRODUCTS
Jun 1-15 May 1-15
Crude palm oil 198,274 65,800
RBD palm oil 83,135 37,905
RBD palm olein 335,834 226,910
RBD palm stearin 82,833 47,645
Crude palm kernel oil 35,000 24,475
Processed palm kernel oil 18,665 9,685
Oleochemicals 34,990 26,650
TOP PALM MARKETS
Jun 1-15 May 1-15
European Union 214,195 159,347
China 233,388 132,315
Pakistan 38,000 31,500
United States 47,350 26,850
India 88,750 9,900
TOTAL PALM EXPORTS, BY MONTH
Month Total Net Change m/m %
May 1,246,988 +52,612 +4.4
April 1,194,376 +73,333 +6.5
March 1,121,043 +45,089 +4.2
February 1,075,954 -144,530 -11.8
January 1,220,484 -104,717 -7.9
December 1,325,201 -84,419 -6.0
November 1,409,620 -112,431 -7.4
October 1,522,051 +194,485 +14.6
September 1,327,566 -334,418 -20.1
August 1,661,984 +224,194 +15.6
July 1,437,790 +66,154 +4.8
June 1,371,636 -316,468 -18.7
May 1,688,104 +103,444 +6.5

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +46 July +130 May +50 July +60 July N/A N/A
July +52 July +50 July +63 July
August +45 Sep +52 Sep +67 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 16
WINNIPEG, June 16 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 458.20 -13.00 July 2020 up 1.74
Basis: Thunder Bay 489.40 15.00 July 2020 up 3.20
Basis: Vancouver 499.40 25.00 July 2020 up 3.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 612.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 602.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 592.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 580.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 615.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 605.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 595.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 582.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 590.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 535.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 2,460.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 182.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2800)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 211,971 lots, or 10.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,369 5,369 5,322 5,322 5,344 5,335 -9 99 1,127
Sep-20 4,808 4,818 4,776 4,814 4,785 4,799 14 173,204 163,048
Nov-20 4,392 4,430 4,369 4,413 4,357 4,398 41 213 674
Jan-21 4,410 4,456 4,400 4,421 4,372 4,424 52 37,467 44,672
Mar-21 – – – 4,401 4,401 4,401 0 0 43
May-21 4,419 4,462 4,404 4,431 4,381 4,430 49 988 4,094
Corn
Turnover: 530,055 lots, or 11.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,093 2,105 2,078 2,105 2,087 2,093 6 3,207 14,086
Sep-20 2,120 2,129 2,107 2,127 2,115 2,118 3 407,059 721,868
Nov-20 2,131 2,141 2,122 2,139 2,130 2,131 1 22,198 43,069
Jan-21 2,147 2,153 2,137 2,153 2,145 2,146 1 82,707 282,629
Mar-21 2,161 2,166 2,152 2,165 2,159 2,159 0 1,899 3,736
May-21 2,183 2,187 2,172 2,183 2,178 2,178 0 12,985 59,993
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,105,171 lots, or 31.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,649 2,656 2,631 2,643 2,649 2,642 -7 1,365 19,938
Aug-20 2,808 2,811 2,783 2,799 2,804 2,794 -10 9,164 21,998
Sep-20 2,836 2,836 2,803 2,815 2,825 2,815 -10 828,476 1,401,718
Nov-20 2,865 2,872 2,842 2,853 2,861 2,854 -7 19,603 55,756
Dec-20 2,892 2,893 2,865 2,880 2,891 2,877 -14 7,709 746
Jan-21 2,901 2,905 2,872 2,885 2,896 2,885 -11 209,760 759,843
Mar-21 2,779 2,781 2,770 2,780 2,790 2,774 -16 92 1,329
May-21 2,718 2,718 2,694 2,704 2,710 2,704 -6 29,002 149,788
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,238,186 lots, or 61.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,154 5,154 5,154 0 0 2
Aug-20 5,006 5,056 5,006 5,030 4,908 5,040 132 5 2
Sep-20 5,014 5,042 4,972 5,038 4,940 5,012 72 1,154,212 428,602
Oct-20 4,798 4,850 4,778 4,850 4,768 4,810 42 71 349
Nov-20 4,750 4,758 4,700 4,740 4,690 4,730 40 63 197
Dec-20 4,786 4,806 4,780 4,806 4,730 4,792 62 4 187
Jan-21 4,900 4,926 4,864 4,918 4,846 4,894 48 82,099 117,322
Feb-21 4,902 4,972 4,902 4,966 4,908 4,930 22 7 114
Mar-21 5,034 5,050 5,034 5,050 4,950 5,044 94 3 17
Apr-21 – – – 4,938 4,938 4,938 0 0 152
May-21 4,994 5,018 4,962 5,014 4,956 4,990 34 1,722 7,517
Jun-21 – – – 4,894 4,862 4,894 32 0 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 442,558 lots, or 25.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,718 5,718 5,718 0 0 5
Aug-20 5,660 5,660 5,660 5,660 5,630 5,660 30 1 1
Sep-20 5,666 5,694 5,610 5,652 5,628 5,650 22 374,959 369,903
Nov-20 5,726 5,742 5,686 5,718 5,726 5,718 -8 13 396
Dec-20 – – – 5,688 5,688 5,688 0 0 22
Jan-21 5,748 5,760 5,686 5,732 5,702 5,722 20 66,634 167,162
Mar-21 – – – 5,754 5,754 5,754 0 0 10
May-21 5,780 5,794 5,732 5,770 5,738 5,770 32 951 9,992
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322