About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 31-May 24-May 2019 Avg
Cotton Planted 89 78 85 91
Cotton Squaring 16 13 17 16
Corn Emerged 95 89 74 92
Soybeans Planted 93 86 72 88
Soybeans Emerged 81 67 49 75
Sorghum Planted 79 64 63 75
Sorghum Headed 16 15 15
Rice Emerged 93 88 92 97
Rice Headed 4 2 3
Peanuts Planted 95 90 83 95
Peanuts Pegging 12 12 7
Sunflowers Planted 75 52 61 75
Oats Emerged
95 91 92 98
Oats Headed 42 34 32 47
Winter Wheat Headed 91 85 87 94
Winter Wheat Harvested 15 7 7 15
Spring Wheat Emerged 95 81 92 97
Spring Wheat Headed 4 2 8
Barley Emerged 94 87 90 95
Barley Headed 11 2 7

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 3 14 40 36 7
Cotton Last Week 2 11 44 36 7
Cotton Last Year 4 11 36 42 7

Winter Wheat This Week 7 12 31 41 9
Winter Wheat Last Week 7 12 30 42 9
Winter Wheat Last Year 2 7 27 51 13

Spring Wheat This Week 0 2 17 73 8
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 1 17 72 10
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 1 21 69 8

Corn This Week 1 4 24 56 15
Corn Last Week 1 3 21 60 15
Corn Last Year 2 8 31 52 7

Soybeans This Week 1 3 24 60 12
Soybeans Last Week 1 3 24 60 12
Soybeans Last Year

Sorghum This Week 2 8 42 43 5
Sprghum Last Week 1 5 39 50 5
Sorghum Last Year

Rice This Week 0 3 26 57 14
Rice Last Week 0 2 28 56 14
Rice Last Year 1 6 30 51 12

Peanuts This Week 1 9 25 61 4
Peanuts Last Week 1 8 25 62 4
Peanuts Last Year 1 6 29 59 5

Oats This Week 1 7 26 56 10
Oats Last Week 0 4 25 59 12
Oats Last Year 2 4 28 58 8

Barley This Week 0 2 21 67 10
Barley Last Week 0 2 19 65 14
Barley Last Year 1 6 17 63 13

Pastures and Ranges This Week 8 14 33 39 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 6 13 32 41 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 1 5 23 56 15

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 15
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 11, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/11/2020 06/04/2020 06/13/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 0 196
CORN 910,495 1,161,477 678,024 30,583,120 40,857,127
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 200 0 0 200 299
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 222,400 196,102 3,669 3,738,487 1,469,358
SOYBEANS 376,323 274,052 680,370 36,114,746 35,649,452
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 444,031 477,236 382,670 657,501 853,436
Total 1,953,449 2,108,867 1,744,733 71,094,054 78,829,868
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts and this is especially true for the HRW market. Spring Wheat markets show down trends as the US and Canadian crops are getting planted and are reported to be in mostly good condition. The harvest has started in the central and southern Great Plains with variable yields reported because of freeze damage and then stress from hot and dry weather, but the yields from USDA were a little higher than expected and any cuts to HRW production were offset by better SRW and White Wheat production. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Better rains are reported in Europe and Russia. Russia could turn hot and dry starting this week but soil moisture is good for now. Australia remains in good condition. The harvest is coming and prices usually start to move lower soon and remain down through the harvest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 496, 492, and 489 July. Support is at 496, 494, and 487 July, with resistance at 509, 513, and 515 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 436, 433, and 410 July. Support is at 442, 439, and 431 July, with resistance at 456, 460, and 466 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 505, 492, and 487 July. Support is at 511, 502, and 492 July, and resistance is at 519, 525, and 528 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in new crop months and much higher in old crop July. The funds were buying the old crop futures on ideas of supply tightness. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting has been problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain will get planted and producers will not plant medium grain if some prevent planting is needed.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be generally above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1793 and 1980 July. Support is at 1696, 1684, and 1672 July, with resistance at 1808, 1720, and 1732 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower on ideas of good weather for the crops in the US. Meats processors are back and are aiming to restore 80% to 85% of capacity kill rates in their plants. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices will fall. This will take some time, but it is starting to come to pass. Ethanol demand is also improving as lock down orders are lifter in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time. The US weather and growing conditions are becoming more important as Corn enters its greatest demand time for moisture. It will be hot and dry this week in the Great Plains and Midwest, but forecasts call for more rains after that. This implies that generally good growing conditions should continue. Continued hot and dry weather would imply yield loss potential and be a reason to see prices move sharply higher as funds and speculators in general are short the market. Oats were a little higher in consolidation trading
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 346 July. Support is at 326, 324, and 321 July, and resistance is at 333, 335, and 340 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 315, 312, and 310 July, and resistance is at 323, 331, and 335 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little lower on good weather and despite of improved Chinese demand. China is thought to have bought more than 1.0 million tons of US Soybeans in the past week, defying the talk that it would avoid US Soybeans due to the war of words between the two countries on Hong Kong and general human rights issues. The Chinese moves to clamp down on Hong Kong dissent and ion western parts of the country was going to be a big negative for bilateral relations as the political situation between the US and China has deteriorated. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time, but traders are watching for potentially hot and dry weather for an extended period that could cut yield potential. Forecasts call for a hot and dry week this week, but rains are expected after that.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 879, 883, and 889 July. Support is at 863, 861, and 857 July, and resistance is at 873, 877, and 881 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 292.00 and 298.00 July. Support is at 286.00, 282.00, and 280.00 July, and resistance is at 292.00, 294.00, and 296.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2700, 2690, and 2660 July, with resistance at 2820, 2840, and 2860 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on higher outside markets. AmSpec reported much improved demand yesterday. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher. Drier conditions in parts of the Prairies and some early weakness in the Canadian Dollar supported the market. Chicago Soybean Oil closed higher as well. The weather has been warmer and drier the past couple of weeks after weeks of cold and wet weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 475.00 and 480.00 July. Support is at 466.00, 463.00, and 461.00 July, with resistance at 474.00, 478.00, and 482.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2300, 2280, and 2240 August, with resistance at 2400, 2420, and 2510 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +49 July +130 May +50 July +56 July N/A N/A
July +50 July +50 July +61 July
August +45 Sep +52 Sep +67 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 15
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for June 15, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 456.46 -13.00 July 2020 up 1.66
Track Thunder Bay 486.20 15.00 July 2020 up 3.40
Track Vancouver 496.20 25.00 July 2020 up 3.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 610.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 592.50 — Unquoted – –
Sep 582.50 — Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 572.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 612.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 595.00 — Unquoted – –
Sep 585.00 — Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 575.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 590.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 530.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 2,450.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 182.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.276)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 444,292 lots, or 21.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,214 5,407 5,214 5,365 5,223 5,344 121 597 1,150
Sep-20 4,768 4,827 4,753 4,807 4,751 4,785 34 391,042 157,838
Nov-20 4,295 4,388 4,288 4,376 4,288 4,357 69 304 634
Jan-21 4,325 4,414 4,302 4,400 4,284 4,372 88 50,690 41,475
Mar-21 4,314 4,439 4,314 4,402 4,283 4,401 118 16 43
May-21 4,311 4,421 4,311 4,404 4,290 4,381 91 1,643 3,828
Corn
Turnover: 349,644 lots, or 7.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,090 2,090 2,082 2,088 2,086 2,087 1 2,181 14,370
Sep-20 2,118 2,119 2,111 2,117 2,113 2,115 2 273,447 708,427
Nov-20 2,131 2,132 2,127 2,131 2,130 2,130 0 15,616 42,176
Jan-21 2,148 2,148 2,142 2,147 2,147 2,145 -2 49,913 290,420
Mar-21 2,160 2,161 2,157 2,160 2,163 2,159 -4 650 3,710
May-21 2,180 2,181 2,176 2,180 2,182 2,178 -4 7,837 56,844
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,065,382 lots, or 30.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,627 2,664 2,627 2,656 2,645 2,649 4 2,137 20,823
Aug-20 2,784 2,815 2,784 2,811 2,803 2,804 1 12,168 23,469
Sep-20 2,806 2,838 2,803 2,835 2,822 2,825 3 795,817 1,411,359
Nov-20 2,841 2,874 2,841 2,872 2,860 2,861 1 14,867 53,731
Dec-20 2,884 2,903 2,876 2,898 2,887 2,891 4 7,882 799
Jan-21 2,881 2,907 2,878 2,905 2,893 2,896 3 195,748 755,234
Mar-21 2,776 2,795 2,776 2,795 2,780 2,790 10 115 1,356
May-21 2,700 2,716 2,697 2,715 2,706 2,710 4 36,648 144,660
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,175,807 lots, or 58.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,200 5,200 5,078 5,078 4,928 5,154 226 8 2
Aug-20 4,902 4,920 4,902 4,920 4,864 4,908 44 5 3
Sep-20 4,862 4,998 4,852 4,994 4,922 4,940 18 1,087,226 401,256
Oct-20 4,686 4,900 4,676 4,788 4,724 4,768 44 58 342
Nov-20 4,650 4,736 4,622 4,708 4,678 4,690 12 66 196
Dec-20 4,668 4,768 4,668 4,750 4,764 4,730 -34 5 187
Jan-21 4,786 4,888 4,778 4,872 4,852 4,846 -6 87,159 115,139
Feb-21 – – – 4,908 4,888 4,908 20 0 115
Mar-21 – – – 4,950 4,908 4,950 42 0 16
Apr-21 – – – 4,938 4,938 4,938 0 0 152
May-21 4,896 4,984 4,896 4,978 4,972 4,956 -16 1,279 6,570
Jun-21 4,862 4,862 4,862 4,862 4,998 4,862 -136 1 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 381,382 lots, or 21.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,710 5,758 5,670 5,748 5,786 5,718 -68 5 5
Aug-20 5,630 5,630 5,630 5,630 5,648 5,630 -18 1 2
Sep-20 5,572 5,668 5,572 5,660 5,638 5,628 -10 326,225 352,430
Nov-20 5,668 5,752 5,668 5,732 5,680 5,726 46 12 399
Dec-20 5,674 5,732 5,674 5,732 5,772 5,688 -84 6 22
Jan-21 5,652 5,742 5,648 5,730 5,708 5,702 -6 54,253 159,644
Mar-21 – – – 5,754 5,754 5,754 0 0 10
May-21 5,696 5,776 5,692 5,764 5,756 5,738 -18 880 9,825
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322