William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
July Beans have consolidated 50 cents off their April lows as the excellent crop condition of the recently planted crop has been offset by solid China demand! Today at 8am a sale of 390,000 MT to China was announced & 10am inspections were 376,323 MT -last Thursday a sale of 720,000MT to China & Friday 120,000MT to unknown. Export sales last Thursday were a whopping 2,216,000MT (700 – 1.7)! The June WADSE report reflected US & Global stocks under expectations. The Macro mkts (DJI – Crude Oil – US dollar) have been in a holding pattern! There is no weather premium currently in the price structure.
Corn is planted & 95% emerged (LY-74%, avg – 92). The good/excellent rating dropped from 75% to 71%! Much like beans, July Corn is range-trading about 20 cents off its April lows! The biggest pluses for the mkt are a still hefty short open interest & no weather premium! And historically, of course, the mkt is hovering just over 10 year lows! Record stocks seem to be dialed in -so the “down” seems to be exhausted!
Winter Wheat is 15% harvested (Ly-7 Avg-15) – Spr Wheat is planted & 95% emerged (Ly – 92, Avg – 81) with a Gd/Ex -81%. The weather is bearish & the stocks are sizable & there is nothing new in the Black Sea Region. The July Wht contract will be a weak sister to corn & beans – however it is only 12 cents off its 2020 lows & is quite oversold with no weather premium -so sharp rallies could happen with any weather snafus!
After a stellar $20 rally (81-102) in the Spring, Aug Cat has succumbed to slumping beef & cash prices, Covid resurgence fears & hefty production – forcing a 30% correction (102-95)! But that may be enough as a still stiff discount to cash & a resumption of consumer demand (as America reopens) – are underpinning the mkt!
A $16 decline (67-52) in July Hogs – precipitated by the re-opening of packing plants – may have run its course – as Pork Cumulative Export Sales for 2020 is the highest on record (China & Mexico) & slaughter weights have declined 4 consecutive weeks! Plus the gradual re-opening of US restaurants should spike demand!
Bill MooreQuestions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337