About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed lower bet held support on the weekly charts. Signs of an improving economy in the US and around the world really helped ideas of better Cotton demand as did reports of a lot of masks being made for use during the Coronavirus epidemic. There is concern that China will stop fulfilling its obligations in the Phase One trade deal due to ramped up US rhetoric on the Chinese response to the Coronavirus epidemic and now the unrest in Hong Kong. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions after showers today. Temperatures should be mostly above normal in the Delta and near to above normal in the Southeast. Texas will have dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 55.30 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 32,435 bales, from 28,570 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5940, 5730, and 5710 July, with resistance of 6060, 6110 and 6210 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 09, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 236,446
: Positions :
: 29,171 25,289 57,142 65,628 135,664 71,045 8,664 222,987 226,760: 13,459 9,686
: Changes from: June 2, 2020 (Change in open interest: -4,149) :
: 2,077 -5,104 -2,499 -2,657 5,724 -1,201 -971 -4,280 -2,849: 132 -1,300
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.3 10.7 24.2 27.8 57.4 30.0 3.7 94.3 95.9: 5.7 4.1
: Total Traders: 263 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 59 82 60 64 41 21 218 195:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower with much of the selling coming on Friday. The selling came for chart based reasons as futures were unable to take out recent highs even though USDA released reduced production estimates for US production. Florida production is now estimated at less than 68 million boxes. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. Southern areas are cooler and have seen more frequent showers. The tree condition is called good. The Valencia harvest is in full swing. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get periods of showers in all areas today and in southern areas for much of the week. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 121.00, 120.00, and 117.00 July, with resistance at 125.00, 129.00, and 130.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 9, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,704 :
: Positions :
: 6,001 10,028 540 1 48 2,532 351 110 689 585 2,595 :
: Changes from: June 2, 2020 :
: -14 -192 -60 1 -1 126 -28 0 59 0 122 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 40.8 68.2 3.7 0.0 0.3 17.2 2.4 0.7 4.7 4.0 17.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 63 :
: 19 18 . . . 14 5 . 15 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
5/23/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
5/23/2020 5/25/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 326.95 327.65 -0.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.13 6.52 -5.9%
Total 333.08 334.16 -0.3%
Pack
Bulk 0.81 5.20 -84.4%
Retail/Institutional 0.74 0.80 -7.2%
Total Pack 1.55 6.00 -74.2%
Reprocessed -0.99 -2.26 -56.1%
Pack from Fruit 0.56 3.74 -85.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.13 -0.06 122.7%
Imports – Foreign 4.17 5.21 -19.9%
Domestic Receipts 0.55 0.16 252.4%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.03 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.16 0.22 -27.7%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 331.80 336.12 -1.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.87 7.31 -6.0%
Total 338.68 343.43 -1.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.95 3.72 6.2%
Exports 0.12 0.25 -51.2%
Total (Bulk) 4.07 3.97 2.6%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.77 1.19 -35.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.77 1.19 -35.3%
Total Movement 4.84 5.16 -6.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 327.73 332.15 -1.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.10 6.12 -0.3%
Ending Inventory 333.83 338.27 -1.3%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
23-May-20 25-May-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 132.77 127.37 4.2%
Retail/Institutional 36.91 40.96 -9.9%
Total Pack 169.68 168.33 0.8%
Reprocessed -87.67 -87.31 0.4%
Pack from Fruit 82.01 81.02 1.2%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.95 -0.84 132.2%
Imports – Foreign 108.93 222.82 -51.1%
Domestic Receipts 11.52 4.81 139.4%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.28 0.04 703.6%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 16.43 3.28 400.7%
Reprocessed FCTJ 1.47 1.73 -15.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 493.72 509.10 -3.0%
Retail/Institutional 42.74 46.88 -8.8%
Total 536.45 555.98 -3.5%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 162.04 162.40 -0.2%
Domestic 9.91 14.55 -31.9%
Exports 171.95 176.95 -2.8%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 36.63 40.76 -10.1%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 36.63 40.76 -10.1%
Total Movement 208.58 217.70 -4.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 327.73 332.15 -1.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.10 6.12 -0.3%
Ending Inventory 333.83 338.27 -1.3%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in both New York and London as the Brazil harvest is underway and starting to expand. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. Vietnam also had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is improving but is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Indonesian producers are more active sellers.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.674 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 98.52 ct/lb. Brazil will get some isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 91.00 and 86.00 July. Support is at 95.00, 92.00, and 89.00 July, and resistance is at 98.00, 100.00 and 102.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1180, 1150, and 1130 July, and resistance is at 1230, 1260, and 1280 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 09, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 345,849
: Positions :
: 29,003 46,492 95,605 142,463 173,816 64,076 21,088 331,148 337,001: 14,701 8,848
: Changes from: June 2, 2020 (Change in open interest: -1,159) :
: 335 6,661 -6,559 5,247 82 -1,159 -1,216 -2,136 -1,032: 978 -126
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.4 13.4 27.6 41.2 50.3 18.5 6.1 95.7 97.4: 4.3 2.6
: Total Traders: 435 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 115 107 138 121 113 46 28 353 335:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/09/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
165.144 92,893 67,556 15,691 12,697 2,041
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.2% 40.9% 9.5% 7.7% 1.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
144 49 40 13 5 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
9,713 40,631 11,737 5,929 6,546 19,363
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.9% 24.6% 7.1% 3.6% 4.0% 11.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 28 15 15 11 12
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,777 4,572
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.7% 2.8%

SUGAR
General Comments: : New York and London closed lower in part on weaker petroleum prices. The market acts as if there is a short supply of White Sugar available. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market but might switch back to producing ethanol soon if prices continue to improve for the ethanol. Brazil mills are currently producing about 48% Sugar from the cane crush, from about 33% a year ago. The pverall crush rate is below year ago levels. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get a dry week or maybe isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1310 and 1420 October. Support is at 1180, 1130, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1260, 1290, and 1300 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 384.00, 379.00, and 370.00 August, and resistance is at 398.00, 400.00, and 405.00 August.

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Down 4.7% in 2H May, Unica Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed less cane in the second half of May compared with a year earlier, as fewer mills were operating this year, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 42.2 million metric tons of cane in the period, a decrease of 4.7% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 2.5 million tons of sugar, up 36.2%, and made 1.8 billion liters of ethanol, a decline of 16.7%.
The production mix for the period was 47.35% sugar and 52.65% ethanol, compared with 35.3% sugar and 64.7% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.
There were 245 sugar mills open through June 1, compared with 248 that were operating a year ago, Unica said. Mills are boosting output of sugar because of good prices for the sweetener and weak demand for ethanol, according to Unica Technical Director Anthony de Padua Rodrigues.
In the season from April 1 through June 1, mills in the region crushed 144.8 million tons of cane, up 12.3% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 65.1% to 8 million tons, and ethanol output fell 0.4% to 6.2 billion liters.
The production mix for the period was 45.9% sugar and 54.1% ethanol, compared with 33.3% sugar and 66.7% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 09, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,194,992
: Positions :
: 98,025 88,478 207,315 516,253 771,050 285,586 61,808 1,107,180 1,128,651: 87,812 66,340
: Changes from: June 2, 2020 (Change in open interest: -2,610) :
: -11,286 -21,566 5,039 -3,326 22,415 -4,738 -8,142 -14,310 -2,253: 11,701 -356
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.2 7.4 17.3 43.2 64.5 23.9 5.2 92.7 94.4: 7.3 5.6
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 48 79 86 79 38 19 225 187:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/09/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
111,070 50,802 87,459 13,248 4,168 4,444
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 45.7% 78.7% 11.9% 3.8% 4.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
121 41 48 11 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,539 544 5,159 3,260 1,289 5,794
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
20.3% 0.5% 4.6% 2.9% 1.2% 5.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
33 2 10 10 5 12
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,823 2,212
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 2.0%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher and trends are mixed in both markets for the short term. New York is showing a double top on the charts at about 2300 July. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. However, the Midcrop could be less due to dry weather earlier in the season. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.228 million bags. The midcrop is looking at good weather conditions in West Africa.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2310, 2090, and 2040 July. Support is at 2360, 2330, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2450, 2510, and 2540 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1820 July. Support is at 1830, 1810, and 1790 July, with resistance at 1890, 1910, and 1940 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 09, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 247,550
: Positions :
: 26,923 36,722 62,101 93,681 123,371 53,255 18,326 235,959 240,520: 11,592 7,031
: Changes from: June 2, 2020 (Change in open interest: -25,817) :
: 3,468 -135 -8,448 -17,393 -12,831 -2,042 -2,963 -24,414 -24,378: -1,403 -1,440
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 14.8 25.1 37.8 49.8 21.5 7.4 95.3 97.2: 4.7 2.8
: Total Traders: 221 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 57 72 42 40 38 20 183 161:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/09/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
308,966 161,295 225,715 38,820 12,321 14,645
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 52.2% 73.1% 12.6% 4.0% 4.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
143 49 47 13 6 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
35,239 1,942 14,351 2,995 424 36,336
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.4% 0.6% 4.6% 1.0% 0.1% 11.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
33 7 17 12 10 25
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,285 3,232
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.7% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322