About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report Thursday
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2020 Corn, Soybean Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA May
Corn Production 15,995 15,924 15,544-15,995 15,995
Soybean Production 4,125 4,152 4,125-4,292 4,125
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA May
Corn Yield 178.5 * 178.5 176.0-180.0 178.5
Soybean Yield 49.8 * 50.0 49.8-51.0 49.8
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2019-20
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA May
Corn 2,103 2,154 2,075-2,303 2,098
Soybeans 585 584 497- 630 580
Wheat 983 980 950-1,001 978
2020-21
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA May
Corn 3,323 3,340 3,177-3,594 3,318
Soybeans 395 459 395- 684 405
Wheat 925 904 876- 934 909
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2019-20
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA May
Corn 312.9 315.1 312.4-319.7 314.7
Soybeans 99.2 100.3 98.5-103.1 100.3
Wheat 295.8 294.7 292.0-296.0 295.1
2020-21
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA May
Corn 337.9 337.6 314.0-346.6 339.6
Soybeans 96.3 100.1 96.0-118.2 98.4
Wheat 316.1 307.5 298.5-312.0 310.1
***
2020-21 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA May
All Wheat 1.877 1,852 1,824-1,892 1,866
Winter Wheat 1.266 1,243 1,211-1,337 1,255
Hard Red Winter 742 723 680-814 733
Soft Red Winter 297 291 201-305 298
White Winter 225 225 218-234 224
**
2019-2020
Brazil Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA May
Corn 101.0 99.6 98.5-102.0 101.0
Soybeans 124.0 123.0 120.9-125.0 124.0
Argentina Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA May
Corn 50.0 49.9 49.0-50.0 50.0
Soybeans 50.0 50.8 50.0-51.2 51.0

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jun 11
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
20/21 19/20 18/19: 20/21 19/20 18/19: 20/21 19/20 18/19
Soybeans 395.0 585.0 909.0:161.98 155.54 148.30:362.85 335.35 360.26
Brazil na na na: 83.00 85.00 74.59:131.00 124.00 119.00
Argentina na na na: 6.50 9.00 9.10: 53.50 50.00 55.30
China na na na: 0.10 0.12 0.12: 17.50 18.10 15.97
Soyoil 2,000 1,940 1,775: 11.80 11.43 11.18: 58.70 56.60 55.64
Corn 3,323 2,103 2,221:182.50 169.49 181.18: 1,188 1,114 1,123
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.02:260.00 260.77 257.33
Argentina na na na: 34.00 35.00 37.24: 50.00 50.00 51.00
S.Africa na na na: 2.30 2.50 1.45: 14.00 16.25 11.82
Cotton(a) 8.00 7.30 4.85: 42.90 39.81 41.13:118.74 122.97 118.65
All Wheat 925 983 1,080:188.85 185.82 173.56:773.43 764.41 730.84
China na na na: 1.00 1.00 1.01:136.00 133.59 131.43
EU 27 na na na: 28.00 36.50 23.31:141.00 154.78 136.69
Canada na na na: 24.50 23.00 24.40: 34.00 32.35 32.20
Argentina na na na: 14.50 13.50 12.19: 21.00 19.50 19.50
Australia na na na: 17.00 9.20 9.01: 26.00 15.20 17.60
Russia na na na: 36.00 33.50 35.84: 77.00 73.61 71.69
Ukraine na na na: 17.50 20.50 16.02: 26.50 29.17 25.06
Sorghum 26.0 30.0 64.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 93.0 92.0 87.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 42.0 29.0 38.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 43.3 32.0 44.9: 44.90 41.65 43.71:502.09 494.29 496.46

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in reaction to the USDA reports that showed higher than expected US production and higher than expected world ending stocks estimates. Minneapolis markets were weaker on improved growing conditions in the northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts. Spring Wheat markets show more mixed trends but the US and Canadian crops are getting planted and are reported to be in mostly good condition according to USDA. Trends could start to turn down now on the weekly charts in Minneapolis. The harvest has started in the central and southern Great Plains with variable yields reported because of freeze damage and then stress from hot and dry weather. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Better rains are reported in Europe and Russia but Russia has turned hot and dry again. Australia remains in good condition.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 496, 492, and 489 July. Support is at 496, 494, and 487 July, with resistance at 503, 509, and 513 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 436, 433, and 410 July. Support is at 446, 439, and 431 July, with resistance at 456, 460, and 466 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 505, 492, and 487 July. Support is at 504, 502, and 492 July, and resistance is at 519, 525, and 528 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower in new crop months and limit down in old crop July. The funds were forced to sell July and found very little buying interest. USDA showed ample supplies to carry the market to the new crop and cut demand prospects due to the high old crop prices for Rice. It carried the increased ending stocks into the new crop tables. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. Most of the unsold Rice is in Arkansas. The crops are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting has been problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain will get planted and producers will not plant medium grain if some prevent planting is needed. There are still ideas that the US will have a much bigger crop to harvest this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be generally above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1402, 1386, and 1316 July, with resistance at 1504, 1525, and 1554 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA cut production potential and demand for the current crop year and made no adjustments to new crop data for the US./ It also cut ending stocks estimates for the current year in its world estimates. A seasonal rally has been underway with the crops planted and nothing else going on to drive prices lower. This rally can last another week or two as the market waits to see longer range forecasts covering Corn pollination in July, but current good crop condition suggests that any rally will be very shallow. Meats processors are back and at nearly 100% of capacity kill rates in their plants. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices will continue to fall. Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifted in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time. Export demand is becoming more difficult with US prices quoted above those in Argentina and are close to those in Ukraine.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 346 July. Support is at 324, 321, and 318 July, and resistance is at 331, 335, and 340 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 310, 307, and 305 July, and resistance is at 323, 331, and 335 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were mixed. Old crop months were supported by big Chinese demand as China bought 792,000 tons of US Soybeans. The USDA reports were considered neutral to negative for the trade. US data did not change much and world production ideas were also about unchanged. The reports implies that there is no shortage of Soybeans coming anytime soon. There are still concerns out there as to how much China will buy from the US due to the war of words between the countries and the fact that they have been buying a lot of Soybeans in Brazil. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. Argentine prices are below those from the US but the logistics of moving the Soybeans through the ports remain poor due to low water levels on the Parana River.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 879, 883, and 889 July. Support is at 857, 852, and 846 July, and resistance is at 873, 877, and 881 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 292.00 and 298.00 July. Support is at 286.00, 282.00, and 280.00 July, and resistance is at 292.00, 294.00, and 296.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2750, 2720, and 2690 July, with resistance at 2800, 2840, and 2860 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on solid demand ideas. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. A government change in Malaysia helped open the Indian market to Malaysian imports again. Southern Malaysia producers reported a sharp drop in production and there are ideas that all of Malaysia will come in below previous months. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was a little higher due to weakness in the Canadian Dollar. Weakness in Chicago Soybea Oil was negative for prices. Canola was higher despite improved growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies. The weather in the Prairies is mixed with Manitoba and Saskatchewan reporting good crops but Alberta noting that it is still too wet to plant in the Peace River area.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 463.00, 461.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 472.00, 474.00, and 478.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2330, 2300, and 2280 August, with resistance at 2420, 2510, and 2590 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +47 July +126 May +50 July +55 July N/A N/A
July +48 July +50 July +60 July
August +43 Sep +52 Sep +63 Aug

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 612.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
July 610.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 582.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 577.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 615.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
July 612.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 585.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 580.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 585.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 530.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 2,440.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 183.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2615)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 582,974 lots, or 27.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,062 5,193 5,062 5,175 5,057 5,121 64 304 1,334
Sep-20 4,718 4,777 4,647 4,697 4,695 4,700 5 562,682 138,692
Nov-20 4,197 4,256 4,175 4,219 4,205 4,215 10 70 615
Jan-21 4,169 4,224 4,145 4,190 4,168 4,185 17 19,000 26,440
Mar-21 4,112 4,204 4,112 4,204 4,149 4,183 34 33 43
May-21 4,159 4,220 4,147 4,202 4,166 4,189 23 885 3,100
Corn
Turnover: 511,432 lots, or 10.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,067 2,075 2,057 2,068 2,067 2,066 -1 4,267 19,214
Sep-20 2,094 2,103 2,085 2,094 2,092 2,093 1 408,468 679,313
Nov-20 2,114 2,122 2,106 2,115 2,112 2,113 1 17,135 41,174
Jan-21 2,133 2,140 2,127 2,137 2,133 2,134 1 72,004 281,634
Mar-21 2,146 2,155 2,143 2,152 2,146 2,150 4 2,901 3,576
May-21 2,166 2,174 2,161 2,172 2,166 2,168 2 6,657 43,905
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,594,777 lots, or 45.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,633 2,652 2,626 2,648 2,640 2,641 1 5,769 23,893
Aug-20 2,796 2,815 2,771 2,803 2,791 2,799 8 15,134 24,600
Sep-20 2,805 2,836 2,799 2,832 2,810 2,821 11 1,155,086 1,449,080
Nov-20 2,838 2,873 2,838 2,870 2,850 2,858 8 15,893 50,366
Dec-20 2,872 2,897 2,823 2,896 2,872 2,885 13 5,957 704
Jan-21 2,874 2,908 2,870 2,905 2,878 2,892 14 356,890 736,816
Mar-21 2,765 2,790 2,765 2,790 2,762 2,776 14 156 1,420
May-21 2,689 2,712 2,688 2,711 2,694 2,701 7 39,892 146,427
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,291,064 lots, or 63.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-20 – – – 4,770 4,770 4,770 0 0 0
Jul-20 4,948 5,060 4,830 5,050 5,060 4,928 -132 28 2
Aug-20 5,004 5,004 4,964 4,964 5,046 4,984 -62 10 3
Sep-20 4,968 4,974 4,828 4,920 4,986 4,902 -84 1,208,870 375,718
Oct-20 4,712 4,730 4,662 4,728 4,788 4,708 -80 37 336
Nov-20 4,766 4,774 4,666 4,712 4,802 4,712 -90 25 182
Dec-20 4,868 4,868 4,700 4,700 4,832 4,772 -60 12 187
Jan-21 4,926 4,926 4,808 4,872 4,944 4,866 -78 80,312 107,391
Feb-21 4,906 4,906 4,906 4,906 5,004 4,906 -98 1 115
Mar-21 – – – 5,070 5,070 5,070 0 0 16
Apr-21 – – – 5,024 5,082 5,024 -58 0 153
May-21 5,060 5,060 4,952 4,992 5,064 4,998 -66 1,769 4,496
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 487,028 lots, or 27.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,674 5,900 5,674 5,824 5,798 5,822 24 11 8
Aug-20 5,682 5,682 5,682 5,682 5,706 5,682 -24 1 2
Sep-20 5,672 5,682 5,588 5,660 5,686 5,634 -52 412,333 357,787
Nov-20 5,734 5,740 5,734 5,740 5,768 5,736 -32 2 395
Dec-20 5,694 5,778 5,694 5,778 5,776 5,736 -40 2 23
Jan-21 5,750 5,758 5,674 5,732 5,764 5,716 -48 71,047 160,086
Mar-21 – – – 5,786 5,786 5,786 0 0 11
May-21 5,822 5,822 5,722 5,776 5,826 5,766 -60 3,632 9,263
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322