About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2020 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2020 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA May USDA 2019
Corn Production 15,924 15,544-15,995 15,995 13,663
Corn Yield 178.5 176.0-180.0 178.5 167.8
Soybean Production 4,152 4,125-4,292 4,125 3,557
Soybean Yield 50.0 49.8-51.0 49.8 47.4
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Advanced Market Concepts 15,995 178.5 4,125 49.8
AgriSource 15,995 178.5 4,125 49.8
Allendale 15,995 4,125
DC Analysis 15,770 179.0 4,200 50.0
Doane 15,894 180.0 4,265 51.0
EDF Man 15,995 178.5 4,125 49.8
Futures International 15,995 179.0 4,125 50.0
Grain Cycles 15,995 178.5 4,125 49.8
Hueber Report 15,995 178.5 4,125 49.8
INTL FCStone 15,638 178.5 4,223 49.8
Sid Love Consulting 15,995 178.5 4,125 49.8
Midland Research 15,995 178.5 4,125 49.8
North Star 15,995 178.5 4,125 49.8
RMC 15,995 178.5 4,125 49.8
US Commodities 15,851 178.7 4,125 49.8
Vantage RM 15,995 178.5 4,125 49.8
Western Milling 15,544 176.0 4,292 51.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 15,995 178.5 4,125 49.8

DJ U.S. June Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20 and 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2019-20
Average Range USDA May
Corn 2,154 2,075-2,303 2,098
Soybeans 584 497-630 580
Wheat 980 950-1,001 978
2020-21
Average Range USDA May
Corn 3,340 3,177-3,594 3,318
Soybeans 459 395-684 405
Wheat 904 876-934 909
2019-20 2020-21
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market Concep 2,115 600 978 3,318 425 890
AgriSource 2,075 580 950 3,290 405 889
Allendale 2,123 570 982 3,343 395 895
DC Analysis 2,148 599 978 3,243 439 876
Doane 2,145 610 995 3,200 565 915
EDF Man 2,098 580 978 3,318 405 909
Futures International 2,194 497 978 3,414 407 899
Grain Cycles 2,098 570 988 3,318 395 893
Hueber Report 2,098 580 980 3,318 405 909
INTL FCStone 2,229 594 969 3,422 684 932
Sid Love Consulting 2,098 580 978 3,318 405 890
Midland Research 2,154 590 998 3,374 415 897
Northstar 2,090 580 978 3,300 420 910
RJ O’Brien 2,208 588 1,001 3,177 449 934
RMC 2,123 575 985 3,343 420 914
US Commodities 2,303 630 978 3,594 538 920
Vantage RM 2,198 600 978 3,418 425 915
Western Milling 2,282 549 979 3,352 683 901
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,138 620 968 3,408 435 879

DJ June World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2019-20 and 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2019-20
Average Range USDA May
Corn 315.1 312.4-319.7 314.7
Soybeans 100.3 98.5-103.1 100.3
Wheat 294.7 292.0-296.0 295.1
2020-21
Average Range USDA May
Corn 337.6 314.0-346.6 339.6
Soybeans 100.1 96.0-118.2 98.4
Wheat 307.5 298.5-312.0 310.1
2019-20 2020-21
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market Concepts 314.0 100.9 295.0 314.0 99.6 307.0
Allendale 315.0 99.7 295.2 339.8 97.8 307.8
Doane 335.0 100.0 305.0
EDF Man 315.0 100.0 296.0 341.0 98.0 308.0
Futures International 342.0 96.0 309.0
Grain Cycles 339.0 98.4 308.5
Hueber Report 313.5 98.5 293.0 336.5 96.5 308.0
INTL FCStone 312.4 103.1 294.1 332.5 118.2 298.5
Northstar 314.0 100.0 292.0 339.0 98.4 308.0
RMC 317.0 99.5 296.0 341.0 97.5 309.0
US Commodities 319.7 101.3 295.1 346.6 102.4 309.0
Western Milling 315.0 100.0 296.0 340.0 99.0 312.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 341.9 99.3 307.4

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2020-21 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Thursday.
2020-21 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA May USDA 2019-20
All Wheat 1,852 1,824-1,892 1,866 1,920
Winter Wheat 1,243 1,211-1,337 1,255 1,304
Hard Red Winter 723 680-814 733 833
Soft Red Winter 291 201-305 298 239
White Winter 225 218-234 224 232
All Wheat Winter Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Advanced Market Concepts 1,847 1,236 719 295 222
Allendale 1,824 1,211 709 284 218
DC Analysis 1,834 1,213 680 305 228
Doane 1,850 1,239 712 299 228
EDF Man 1,865 1,255 735 300 220
Futures International 1,856 1,245 723 297 225
Grain Cycles 1,850 1,240 725 290 225
Hueber Report 1,866 1,255 733 298 224
INTL FCStone 1,828 1,217 693 297 227
Sid Love Consulting 1,847 1,236 713 298 225
Midland Research 1,834 1,223 700 201 222
North Star 1,850 1,240 720 300 220
RJ O’Brien 1,873 1,248 730 292 226
RMC 1,846 1,235 713 298 224
US Commidities 1,875 1,264 738 300 226
Vantage RM 1,846 1,235 733 298 224
Western Milling 1,892 1,337 814 289 234

DJ June Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Thursday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 99.6 98.5-102.0 101.0
Soybeans 123.0 120.9-125.0 124.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market Concepts 100.0 123.5
DC Analysis 100.0 125.0
Doane 102.0 122.0
EDF Man 100.0 124.0
Futures International 99.0 124.0
Hueber Report 99.0 122.0
INTL FCStone 98.8 120.9
Midland Research 99.0 122.0
North Star 100.0 123.0
RMC 98.5 123.5
US Commodities 100.5 123.5
Western Milling 99.0 123.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 99.5 122.5
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 49.9 49.0-50.0 50.0
Soybeans 50.8 50.0-51.2 51.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market Concepts 49.5 51.0
DC Analysis 50.0 50.5
Doane 50.0 51.0
EDF Man 50.0 51.0
Futures International 50.0 50.5
Hueber Report 49.0 51.0
INTL FCStone 50.0 50.0
Midland Research 50.0 50.0
North Star 50.0 51.0
RMC 50.0 51.0
US Commodities 49.8 51.2
Western Milling 50.0 51.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 50.0 51.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in all three markets yesterday. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts. Spring Wheat markets show more mixed trends but the US and Canadian crops are getting planted and are reported to be in mostly good condition according to USDA. The harvest has started in the central and southern Great Plains with variable yields reported because of freeze damage and then stress from hot and dry weather. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Better rains are reported in Europe and Russia but Russia is expected to turn dry again soon. Australia remains in good condition. Competition for sales is expected to be tough even with less in the US and Europe as Australia is coming back after years of drought and as Russia has better weather and improved production prospects. The harvest is coming and prices usually remain down through the harvest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 496, 492, and 489 July. Support is at 501, 496, and 494 July, with resistance at 513, 515, and 522 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 454, 441, and 439 July, with resistance at 466, 473, and 477 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 516, 514, and 504 July, and resistance is at 526, 528, and 530 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in new crop months and limit down for one more day in old crop July. The funds were forced to sell July and found very little buying interest. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. Most of the unsold Rice is in Arkansas. The crops are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting has been problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain will get planted and producers will not plant medium grain if some prevent planting is needed. There are still ideas that the US will have a much bigger crop to harvest this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers and storms today from Cristobal. Temperatures should be generally above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1754, 1731, and 1682 July, with resistance at 1810, 1906, and 2056 July.
Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1810, 1731, and 1654 July, with resistance at 2056, 2206, and 2356 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 10
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.52 11.06 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.17 11.79 0.00
Brokens 11.11 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on what appeared to be fund selling tied to the improved crop conditions and the lack of notable demand in the market. A seasonal rally is underway with the crops planted and nothing else going on to drive prices lower. This rally can last another week or two as the market waits to see longer range forecasts covering Corn pollination in July. Meats processors are back and at nearly 100% of capacity kill rates in their plants. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices will continue to fall. Ethanol demand is also improving as lock down orders are lifted in most states and in Europe. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time. Export demand is becoming more difficult with US prices quoted above those in Argentina and are close to those in Ukraine.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 346 July. Support is at 324, 321, and 318 July, and resistance is at 335, 340, and 344 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 293 July. Support is at 307, 300, and 295 July, and resistance is at 323, 331, and 335 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower despite rumors of new Chinese demand. China might have bought a couple of cargoes of new crop Soybeans yesterday. There are still concerns out there as to how much China will buy from the US due to the war of words between the countries and the fact that they have been buying a lot of Soybeans in Brazil. The Chinese moves to clamp down on Hong Kong dissent was going to be a big negative for the market as the political situation between the US and China has deteriorated. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. Argentine prices are below those from the US but the logistics of moving the Soybeans through the ports remain poor due to low water levels on the Parana River.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 879, 883, and 889 July. Support is at 857, 852, and 846 July, and resistance is at 873, 877, and 881 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 292.00 and 298.00 July. Support is at 286.00, 282.00, and 280.00 July, and resistance is at 292.00, 294.00, and 296.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2840 and 3020 July. Support is at 2780, 2750, and 2720 July, with resistance at 2840, 2860, and 2960 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of higher petroleum prices. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. A government change in Malaysia helped open the Indian market to Malaysian imports again. Southern Malaysia producers reported a sharp drop in production and there are ideas that all of Malaysia will come in below previous months. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher. Canola was higher despite improved growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies. The weather in the Prairies is mixed with Manitoba and Saskatchewan reporting good crops but Alberta noting that it is still too wet to plant in the Peace River area.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 463.00, 461.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 470.00, 472.00, and 474.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2330, 2300, and 2280 August, with resistance at 2420, 2510, and 2590 August.

DJ Malaysia June 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Up 63.8% -SGS
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the June 1-10 period are estimated up 63.8% on month at 580,096 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
June 1-10 May 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 257,644 158,380
RBD Palm Oil 62,535 30,655
RBD Palm Stearin 65,783 25,945
Crude Palm Oil 68,569 21,800
Total* 580,096 354,090

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers and storms this week with best amounts and coverage today and tomorrow in the west and north. Temperatures should average above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +47 July +133 May +50 July +57 July N/A N/A
July +47 July +50 July +56 July
August +43 Sep +63 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 9
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 451.80 -13.00 Jul 2020 dn 1.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 482.70 15.00 Jul 2020 up 2.80
Basis: Vancouver 492.70 25.00 Jul 2020 up 2.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 600.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
July 590.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 585.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 577.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 602.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
July 592.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 587.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 580.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 582.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 535.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 2,420.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 183.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2490)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 647,115 lots, or 30.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,046 5,076 5,038 5,058 5,027 5,054 27 188 1,298
Sep-20 4,547 4,724 4,543 4,697 4,561 4,662 101 627,481 148,580
Nov-20 4,128 4,240 4,121 4,239 4,116 4,189 73 226 583
Jan-21 4,080 4,191 4,071 4,182 4,099 4,144 45 18,012 22,290
Mar-21 4,146 4,166 4,146 4,160 4,080 4,159 79 4 43
May-21 4,082 4,182 4,075 4,175 4,094 4,149 55 1,204 2,795
Corn
Turnover: 458,868 lots, or 9.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,056 2,060 2,046 2,059 2,047 2,054 7 1,958 17,873
Sep-20 2,077 2,087 2,071 2,085 2,070 2,077 7 351,148 691,236
Nov-20 2,098 2,109 2,095 2,108 2,094 2,099 5 15,497 39,511
Jan-21 2,119 2,129 2,116 2,128 2,116 2,122 6 76,314 276,058
Mar-21 2,136 2,145 2,132 2,144 2,130 2,138 8 1,566 3,938
May-21 2,154 2,162 2,151 2,161 2,152 2,156 4 12,385 41,601
Soymeal
Turnover: 967,570 lots, or 27.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,638 2,646 2,630 2,645 2,641 2,637 -4 4,719 28,181
Aug-20 2,792 2,802 2,782 2,797 2,794 2,788 -6 17,232 27,112
Sep-20 2,810 2,820 2,801 2,818 2,813 2,810 -3 723,782 1,529,887
Nov-20 2,851 2,857 2,840 2,853 2,852 2,847 -5 11,775 50,399
Dec-20 2,879 2,888 2,869 2,875 2,881 2,876 -5 4,124 1,516
Jan-21 2,886 2,891 2,873 2,886 2,888 2,881 -7 166,994 767,231
Mar-21 2,784 2,784 2,763 2,776 2,785 2,770 -15 114 1,410
May-21 2,709 2,711 2,691 2,699 2,705 2,697 -8 38,830 143,872
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,341,696 lots, or 67.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-20 – – – 4,770 4,770 4,770 0 0 0
Jul-20 5,128 5,130 5,128 5,130 4,968 5,128 160 2 8
Aug-20 5,082 5,086 5,052 5,052 5,006 5,076 70 4 6
Sep-20 5,014 5,078 4,988 5,024 4,950 5,028 78 1,243,130 412,207
Oct-20 4,856 4,864 4,810 4,820 4,778 4,832 54 85 336
Nov-20 4,826 4,866 4,808 4,824 4,776 4,826 50 61 181
Dec-20 4,830 4,866 4,830 4,854 4,830 4,854 24 27 194
Jan-21 4,948 5,006 4,928 4,970 4,904 4,960 56 97,419 105,512
Feb-21 – – – 5,004 4,918 5,004 86 0 115
Mar-21 – – – 5,070 5,070 5,070 0 0 16
Apr-21 5,064 5,100 5,064 5,100 4,970 5,082 112 2 153
May-21 5,064 5,112 5,046 5,084 5,026 5,072 46 966 3,579
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 493,285 lots, or 28.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,732 5,818 5,732 5,814 5,776 5,798 22 10 13
Aug-20 – – – 5,740 5,790 5,740 -50 0 2
Sep-20 5,750 5,766 5,698 5,704 5,714 5,732 18 417,832 407,137
Nov-20 5,844 5,844 5,724 5,782 5,760 5,784 24 38 395
Dec-20 5,814 5,820 5,740 5,810 5,820 5,794 -26 11 22
Jan-21 5,812 5,830 5,770 5,776 5,768 5,802 34 74,369 153,217
Mar-21 – – – 5,786 5,786 5,786 0 0 11
May-21 5,864 5,880 5,834 5,836 5,830 5,860 30 1,025 7,062
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322