About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 31-May 24-May 2019 Avg
Cotton Planted 76 66 74 81
Cotton Squaring 13 8 10 10
Corn Planted 97 93 78 94
Corn Emerged 89 78 57 84
Soybeans Planted 86 75 54 79
Soybeans Emerged 67 52 30 61
Sorghum Planted 64 49 45 60
Rice Planted 95 93 95 98
Rice Emerged 88 81 84 93
Peanuts Planted 90 78 90 91
Sugar beets Planted 99 93 96 99
Sunflowers Planted 52 32 35 56
Oats Emerged
91 86 84 94
Oats Headed 34 27 27 36
Winter Wheat Headed 85 77 81 88
Winter Wheat Harvested 7 3 3 7
Spring Wheat Planted 97 91 96 99
Spring Wheat Emerged 81 67 80 91
Barley Planted 97 93 96 99
Barley Emerged 87 74 82 90

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 2 11 44 36 7
Cotton Last Week 1 7 48 39 5
Cotton Last Year 7 8 41 37 7

Winter Wheat This Week 7 12 30 42 9
Winter Wheat Last Week 6 13 30 43 8
Winter Wheat Last Year 2 7 27 50 14

Spring Wheat This Week 0 1 17 72 10
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 1 18 72 8
Spring Wheat Last Year 0 1 18 73 8

Corn This Week 1 3 21 60 15
Corn Last Week 1 3 22 61 13
Corn Last Year 2 7 32 52 7

Soybeans This Week 1 3 24 60 12
Soybeans Last Week 1 3 24 60 10
Soybeans Last Year

Sorghum This Week 1 2 39 50 5
Sorghum Last Week 2 4 30 56 8
Sorghum Last Year

Rice This Week 0 2 28 56 14
Rice Last Week 0 2 29 55 14
Rice Last Year 1 6 32 52 9

Peanuts This Week 1 8 25 62 4
Peanuts Last Week 2 6 24 65 3
Peanuts Last Year 1 6 33 58 2

Oats This Week 0 4 25 59 12
Oats Last Week 1 3 25 59 12
Oats Last Year 2 4 29 57 8

Barley This Week 0 2 19 65 14
Barley Last Week 0 1 30 61 8
Barley Last Year 0 2 14 68 16

Pastures and Ranges This Week 6 13 32 41 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 4 12 33 42 9
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 1 6 25 54 14

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed lower on demand worries. Export sales were negative last week for old crop and were only slightly positive for new crop. There is concern that China will stop fulfilling its obligations in the Phase One trade deal due to ramped up US rhetoric on the Chinese response to the Coronavirus epidemic and now the unrest in Hong Kong. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions after some rain today and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions after showers today and tomorrow. Temperatures should be mostly below normal in the Delta and near normal in the Southeast. Texas will have dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 56.27 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 19,750 bales, from 17,636 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6670 and 6820 July. Support is at 6050, 5970, and 5940 July, with resistance of 6230, 6250 and 6340 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower and futures held to the recent trading range on the daily charts. The market appears to be in a consolidation phase. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at below 70 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. Southern areas are cooler and have seen more frequent showers. The tree condition is called good. The Valencia harvest is in full swing. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get periods of showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 July, with resistance at 129.00, 130.00, and 133.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were mixed in New York and higher in London. London led the way to the upside as Vietnamese producers still think prices are too cheap to sell into and as Indonesian producers have pulled back from the market for a while. Ideas of better European demand are helping London Robusta futures rally as are higher values for the Brazilian Real. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is improving but is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.740 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 101.27 ct/lb. Brazil will get some isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 95.00, 92.00, and 89.00 July, and resistance is at 100.00, 102.00 and 105.00 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1230, 1200, and 1180 July, and resistance is at 1260, 1280, and 1300 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was mixed and London closed lower on lower petroleum prices. The Brazil mills are producing Sugar but might switch back to producing ethanol soon if prices continue to improve for the ethanol. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult. These problems should ease as the attack of the virus eases in the country. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get a dry week or maybe isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1310 and 1420 October. Support is at 1180, 1130, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1230, 1260, and 1290 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 408.00 August. Support is at 385.00, 379.00, and 370.00 August, and resistance is at 398.00, 400.00, and 405.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed mostly a little lower and London closed a little lower. New York July managed to close higher. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.238 million bags. The midcrop is looking at good weather conditions in West Africa.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2370, 2320, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2430, 2450, and 2460 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1870 and 1820 July. Support is at 1830, 1810, and 1790 July, with resistance at 1890, 1910, and 1940 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322