About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed higher on the back of unexpectedly good employment data released by the US government on Friday. Signs of an improving economy in the US and around the world really helped ideas of better Cotton demand despite a negative export sales report that was released on Thursday. Export sales were negative last week for old crop and were only slightly positive for new crop. There is concern that China will stop fulfilling its obligations in the Phase One trade deal due to ramped up US rhetoric on the Chinese response to the Coronavirus epidemic and now the unrest in Hong Kong. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. The USDA average price is now 55.46 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 17,636 bales, from 14,289 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 6670 and 6820 July. Support is at 6050, 5970, and 5940 July, with resistance of 6230, 6250 and 6340 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 02, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 240,594
: Positions :
: 27,095 30,392 59,641 68,285 129,940 72,246 9,635 227,267 229,609: 13,327 10,985
: Changes from: May 26, 2020 (Change in open interest: 2,265) :
: 859 -2,759 -98 -2,069 5,222 3,578 360 2,271 2,724: -6 -460
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 12.6 24.8 28.4 54.0 30.0 4.0 94.5 95.4: 5.5 4.6
: Total Traders: 269 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 68 82 58 65 43 21 220 199:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and chart patterns remain positive, especially for the weekly charts. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at below 70 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. Southern areas are cooler and have seen more frequent showers. The tree condition is called good. The Valencia harvest is in full swing. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get periods of showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 July, with resistance at 129.00, 130.00, and 133.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 2, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,645 :
: Positions :
: 6,015 10,220 600 0 48 2,406 379 110 630 585 2,473 :
: Changes from: May 26, 2020 :
: 30 -339 -6 -6 6 -228 -22 3 -176 0 141 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 41.1 69.8 4.1 0.0 0.3 16.4 2.6 0.8 4.3 4.0 16.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61 :
: 19 18 . 0 . 13 5 . 14 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is improving but is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently. Indonesian producers are more active sellers.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 1.745 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 101.16 ct/lb. Brazil will get some isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 96.00 July. Support is at 95.00, 92.00, and 89.00 July, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 107.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1180, 1150, and 1120 July, and resistance is at 1210, 1230, and 1240 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 02, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 347,008
: Positions :
: 28,668 39,831 102,165 137,216 173,734 65,235 22,304 333,284 338,034: 13,724 8,974
: Changes from: May 26, 2020 (Change in open interest: 29,159) :
: 2,344 13,554 11,332 11,154 908 2,592 2,428 27,423 28,223: 1,736 937
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 11.5 29.4 39.5 50.1 18.8 6.4 96.0 97.4: 4.0 2.6
: Total Traders: 416 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 114 94 131 121 113 46 27 343 319:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/02/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
170,195 99,068 67,289 15,317 13,041 1,781
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 58.2% 39.5% 9.0% 7.7% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
155 56 45 11 6 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
8,886 44,743 13,804 4,407 6,434 18,803
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 26.3% 8.1% 2.6% 3.8% 11.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
13 35 16 14 11 13
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
8,129 4,302
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.8% 2.5%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher in part on stronger petroleum prices. The market acts as if there is a short supply of White Sugar available. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market but might switch back to producing ethanol soon if prices continue to improve for the ethanol. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get a dry week or maybe isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1310 and 1420 October. Support is at 1130, 1120, and 1100 October, and resistance is at 1220, 1260, and 1290 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 408.00 August. Support is at 385.00, 379.00, and 370.00 August, and resistance is at 400.00, 405.00, and 412.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 02, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,197,601
: Positions :
: 109,311 110,044 202,276 519,579 748,635 290,324 69,949 1,121,490 1,130,905: 76,112 66,697
: Changes from: May 26, 2020 (Change in open interest: 14,893) :
: 1,866 -2,781 8,739 2,856 8,746 3,207 386 16,668 15,090: -1,775 -197
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 9.2 16.9 43.4 62.5 24.2 5.8 93.6 94.4: 6.4 5.6
: Total Traders: 256 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 51 76 83 77 40 21 225 191:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/02/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
102,942 50,048 81,398 13,709 3,313 4,038
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 48.6% 79.1% 13.3% 3.2% 3.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
110 41 43 12 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
17,495 931 4,325 3,264 2,001 4,769
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
17.0% 0.9% 4.2% 3.2% 1.9% 4.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 3 8 6 7 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,294 2,167
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.1% 2.1%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed a little higher and London closed a little lower. Some of the trading was related to changes in currency relationships between the US Dollar and British Pound. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. The removal of the lock downs should improve demand in the short term. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.250 million bags.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2370, 2320, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2430, 2450, and 2460 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1870 and 1820 July. Support is at 1870, 1830, and 1810 July, with resistance at 1910, 1940, and 1970 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 02, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 273,368
: Positions :
: 23,454 36,857 70,549 111,074 136,203 55,296 21,289 260,373 264,897: 12,994 8,470
: Changes from: May 26, 2020 (Change in open interest: 7,898) :
: 2,514 -274 1,235 -1,913 4,886 6,119 1,635 7,954 7,480: -56 418
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.6 13.5 25.8 40.6 49.8 20.2 7.8 95.2 96.9: 4.8 3.1
: Total Traders: 215 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 57 79 43 40 37 19 182 163:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/02/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
309,646 156,024 225,742 38,301 12,036 15,516
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 50.4% 72.9% 12.4% 3.9% 5.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
143 50 47 14 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
40,267 1,395 17,326 3,471 377 33,545
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.0% 0.5% 5.6% 1.1% 0.1% 10.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
34 5 17 14 11 25
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,196 3,710
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.7% 1.2%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322