Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton was a little lower on worries about potential Chinese demand. There is concern that China will stop fulfilling its obligations in the Phase One trade deal due to ramped up US rhetoric on the Chinese response to the Coronavirus epidemic and now the unrest in Hong Kong. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. The USDA average price is now 55.46 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 14,289 bales, from 13,387 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6670 July. Support is at 5940, 5730, and 5710 July, with resistance of 6120, 6220 and 6250 July.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Jun 4
As of May 29. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Jul 20 22,958 23,371 -413 14,578 15,180 -602
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 26,410 25,382 1,028 23,319 22,827 492
Mar 21 17,290 17,157 133 6,130 5,743 387
May 21 6,840 6,588 252 1,134 826 308
Jul 21 10,857 10,770 87 1,392 1,348 44
Dec 21 6,160 6,160 0 8,474 8,432 42
Mar 22 837 616 221 13 13 0
May 22 100 100 0 0 0 0
Jul 22 50 50 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 7 7 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 7 7 0
Total 91,502 90,194 1,308 55,054 54,383 671
Open Open Change
Jul 20 82,704 83,268 -564
Oct 20 36 31 5
Dec 20 75,382 67,846 7,536
Mar 21 14,818 14,033 785
May 21 4,042 3,914 128
Jul 21 5,289 4,590 699
Dec 21 10,090 9,526 564
Mar 22 82 71 11
May 22 2 1 0
Jul 22 6 4 2
Dec 22 3 1 2
Dec 23 0 0 0
Total 192,454 183,285 9,169
General Comments: FCOJ was lower. Support is coming from people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at below 70 million boxes, but FCOJ inventories are holding. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. Southern areas are cool and have seen a few showers. The Valencia harvest is in full swing. More signs of growth on trees are reported. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get periods of showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 July, with resistance at 129.00, 130.00, and 133.00 July.
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London. New York was lower on weakness in the Brazilian Real. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is improving but is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently. Indonesian producers are more active sellers.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 1.745 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 100.04 ct/lb. Brazil will get some isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 96.00 July. Support is at 95.00, 92.00, and 89.00 July, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 107.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1180, 1150, and 1120 July, and resistance is at 1210, 1230, and 1240 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher despite a weakening Real and weaker petroleum prices. The market acts as if there is a short supply of White Sugar available. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market but might switch back to producing ethanol soon if prices continue to improve for the ethanol. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get a dry week or maybe isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1310 and 1420 October. Support is at 1130, 1120, and 1100 October, and resistance is at 1180, 1220, and 1260 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 408.00 August. Support is at 370.00, 363.00, and 360.00 August, and resistance is at 387.00, 396.00, and 400.00 August.
General Comments: New York closed mixed to higher and London closed a little lower. Some of the trading was related to changes in currency relationships between the US Dollar and British Pound. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. The removal of the lockdowns should improve demand in the short term. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.265 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2370, 2320, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2430, 2450, and 2460 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1870 and 1820 July. Support is at 1890, 1870, and 1830 July, with resistance at 1940, 1970, and 1990 July.