Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Date 18-May 10-May 2019 Avg
Cotton Planted 53 44 53 53
Corn Planted 88 80 55 82
Corn Emerged 64 43 28 58
Soybeans Planted 65 53 26 55
Soybeans Emerged 35 18 9 27
Sorghum Planted 39 32 27 38
Rice Planted 89 81 81 92
Rice Emerged 71 57 60 77
Peanuts Planted 64 46 74 70
Sugarbeets Planted 93 78 93 98
Sunflowers Planted 14 4 7 21
Oats Planted 93 86 83 94
78 69 62 81
Winter Wheat Headed 68 56 63 72
Spring Wheat Planted 81 60 80 90
Spring Wheat Emerged 51 30 41 65
Barley Planted 86 72 84 91
Barley Emerged 62 44 50 68
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 5 11 30 46 8
Winter Wheat Last Week 5 11 32 44 8
Winter Wheat Last Year 2 7 30 48 13
Corn This Week 1 4 25 58 12
Corn Last Week
Corn Last Year
Rice This Week 1 2 35 51 11
Rice Last Week 1 2 34 53 10
Rice Last Year 1 5 30 54 10
Oats This Week 0 3 23 62 12
Oats Last Week 1 2 22 65 10
Oats Last Year 3 5 34 51 7
Barley This Week 0 2 31 61 6
Barley Last Week
Barley Last Year
Pastures and Ranges This Week 4 12 34 43 7
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 5 11 37 41 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 1 5 27 55 12
General Comments Cotton was higher on the weaker US Dollar and on hopes for new buying from China. China bought US Soybeans over the weekend. There has been concern that China will stop fulfilling its obligations in the Phase One trade deal due to ramped up US rhetoric on the Chinese response to the Coronavirus epidemic and now the unrest in Hong Kong. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The hope that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return is not likely to be confirmed. Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover. As an example, Chinese stores have been open for several weeks but there has been no consumer rush to go to them and buy. The same is possible here and in Europe although the data so far is mixed in this regard. It is too dry in Brazil for good growth of the second crop of Cotton.
Overnight News: The Delta will get periods of scattered showers through Thursday and isolated showers through Saturday and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will have dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. The USDA average price is now 53.80 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,732 bales, from 6,693 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5760, 5710, and 5680 July, with resistance of 5980, 6050 and 6100 July.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and made new highs for the move. Trends are still up in the market. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice in any form. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at below 70 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida has become much better for the crops. Southern areas are cooler now and have seen a few showers. The midseason Oranges harvest is diminishing. Color break is reported on late variety Oranges. More signs of early bloom and new growth on trees are reported. Favorable weather is reported in Brazil but it has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get periods of showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 132.00 July. Support is at 127.00, 123.00, and 121.00 July, with resistance at 130.00, 133.00, and 136.00 July.
General Comments: Futures were higher in both markets yesterday. A sharply lower US Dollar supported buying interest as did the fact that the world is starting to slowly reopen after the Coronavirus. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time. This might change a bit in the next few weeks as the US and EU economies slowly open up. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently and the effects of the Coronavirus. Indonesian producers are more active sellers.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.786 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 104.82 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday after a dry week with near to above normal temperatures. Dry and cool conditions next week. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 104.00, `092.00, and 98.00 July, and resistance is at 107.00, 109.00 and 110.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1230 and 1320 July. Support is at 1210, 1190, and 1170 July, and resistance is at 1240, 1260, and 1280 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher. Crude Oil and products prices were higher as well and helped ethanol demand ideas. The recently weaker petroleum futures had made more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar in Brazil. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get a dry week. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1070, 1040, and 1020 October, and resistance is at 1130, 1160, and 1180 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 408.00 August. Support is at 370.00, 364.00, and 360.00 August, and resistance is at 387.00, 399.00, and 404.00 August.
DJ Brazil Sugar Crush Up 8.8% in 1H; May Good Weather Speeds Harvest
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the first half of May compared with a year earlier, as good weather helped speed the cane harvest, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 42.5 million metric tons of cane in the period, an increase of 8.8% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 2.5 million tons of sugar, up 55.8%, and made 1.8 billion liters of ethanol, an increase of 0.6%.
The coronavirus pandemic has sent demand and prices for gasoline and other fuels, including ethanol, lower. Center-south sugar mills are switching more of their production to increase output of the sweetener instead of ethanol to try to boost their incomes.
The production mix in the first half of May was 47.2% sugar and 52.8% ethanol, compared with 36% sugar and 64% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.
In the season from April 1 through May 16, mills in the region crushed 103 million tons of cane, up 21.7% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 83.9% to 5.5 million tons, and ethanol output rose 8.6% to 4.4 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through May 16 was 45.3% sugar and 54.7% ethanol, compared with 32.2% sugar and 67.8% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
General Comments: : New York and London closed lower on follow through selling. Futures are still in trading ranges The virus has complicated farming and marketing efforts. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. Analysts interview by Bloomberg News estimated the grind in Europe and North America moderately lower. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.287 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2380, 2340, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2460, 2470, and 2490 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1890 July, with resistance at 1990, 2000, and 2030 July.