About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 26
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 21, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/21/2020 05/14/2020 05/23/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 30,548 9,988
CORN 1,091,972 1,182,471 1,108,727 27,351,343 38,582,498
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 520 462
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,343 2,992
RYE 0 0 100 0 100
SORGHUM 188,078 278,282 28,639 3,190,951 1,349,218
SOYBEANS 333,127 356,078 537,216 35,089,243 33,724,502
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 457,777 491,776 532,901 24,389,337 24,201,989
Total 2,070,954 2,308,607 2,207,583 90,055,285 97,871,749
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 18-May 10-May 2019 Avg
Cotton Planted 53 44 53 53
Corn Planted 88 80 55 82
Corn Emerged 64 43 28 58
Soybeans Planted 65 53 26 55
Soybeans Emerged 35 18 9 27
Sorghum Planted 39 32 27 38
Rice Planted 89 81 81 92
Rice Emerged 71 57 60 77
Peanuts Planted 64 46 74 70
Sugarbeets Planted 93 78 93 98
Sunflowers Planted 14 4 7 21
Oats Planted 93 86 83 94
Oats Emerged
78 69 62 81
Winter Wheat Headed 68 56 63 72
Spring Wheat Planted 81 60 80 90
Spring Wheat Emerged 51 30 41 65
Barley Planted 86 72 84 91
Barley Emerged 62 44 50 68

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 5 11 30 46 8
Winter Wheat Last Week 5 11 32 44 8
Winter Wheat Last Year 2 7 30 48 13

Corn This Week 1 4 25 58 12
Corn Last Week
Corn Last Year

Rice This Week 1 2 35 51 11
Rice Last Week 1 2 34 53 10
Rice Last Year 1 5 30 54 10

Oats This Week 0 3 23 62 12
Oats Last Week 1 2 22 65 10
Oats Last Year 3 5 34 51 7

Barley This Week 0 2 31 61 6
Barley Last Week
Barley Last Year

Pastures and Ranges This Week 4 12 34 43 7
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 5 11 37 41 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 1 5 27 55 12

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed, with Hard Red Winter and Spring futures a little higher and Soft Red Winter a little higher. Improving weather around the world and here at home was the big reason to see some selling hit the markets, but reports that Europe is dry supported the markets. Reports indicate that Russia got some very beneficial rains over the weekend. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected. Reduced production ideas are floated for HRW areas after some disappointing rains over the weekend. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas after a freeze a few weeks ago. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. Growing conditions are better now with the arrival of showers in these areas, but the showers in the west have not been big enough to solve the problem. It has been mostly dry but cold in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. It was warmer and drier last week and a lot of planting got done.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers through Thursday, then dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers through Thursday, then dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal in the west and above normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 503, 501, and 496 July, with resistance at 512, 518, and 528 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 439, 431, and 428 July, with resistance at 457, 461, and 468 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 510, 504, and 502 July, and resistance is at 526, 528, and 534 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher, with July leading the way. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop month of July. New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers. Some producers are selling the next crop and some hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Mississippi has also had problems planting the crop due to too much rain but the crop in both states is being planted. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be generally above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1608, 1591, and 1581 July, with resistance at 1639, 1656, and 1668 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 27
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.77 11.22 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.43 11.97 0.00
Brokens 11.27 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher and seemed to rally in sympathy with Soybeans. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. Some states are starting to open now in the US but the experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. The plants are opening now with some government mandated protections for workers, but not all workers are back to work and the social distancing requirements means that less meat can be processed in any case. Cattle and hog producers are seeing much less demand for their production and that has affected feed demand. The Midwest weather is improving after the recent cold spell. It is now warmer with some showers and storms around. The funds are very short this market and are keeping prices down. Traders wonder how long they will hold these positions as they are not making any money.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 315, 312, and 308 July, and resistance is at 323, 325, and 327 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 334 and 346 July. Support is at 322, 320, and 315 July, and resistance is at 333, 336, and 339 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed higher as China bought US Soybeans and an unknown destination but possibly Philippines bought US Soybean Meal. Soybeans and the products have feared less demand from China due to recent sabre rattling from the US about how China handled the Coronavirus outbreak and more recently due to Chinese moves to impose its will on Hong Kong. The President has said that he will announce new measure to punish China for its actions later this week. Chinese moves to better control Hong Kong are not going well with western nations who want Hong Kong to hold onto its more independent status. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. Basis levels at the ports in Brazil are increasing to choke off the flow. Weather is improving with warmer temperatures. Some Soybeans might need to be replanted this week. Brazil production is almost sold out now. Production estimates there are slightly less than before due to hot and dry weather in some areas. There is some talk that the ports in Brazil could slow down loading due to the outbreak of Coronavirus there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 840, 818, and 812 July, and resistance is at 850, 861, and 868 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 279.00 July. Support is at 280.00, 277.00, and 274.00 July, and resistance is at 286.00, 288.00, and 290.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2660, 2630, and 2620 July, with resistance at 2760, 2810, and 2820 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: World vegetable oils markets were mixed last week. Palm Oil closed higher after news of renewed demand interest from India and China. It as closed today. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. A government change in Malaysia helped open the Indian market to Malaysian imports again. Canola was higher despite improved growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies as Chicago was stronger. Canola has found support from the recent recovery in Soybeans and Soybean Oil along with a weaker Canadian Dollar. However, the Canadian Dollar was very strong yesterday. The weather has been warmer this past week after weeks of cold and wet weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 462.00, 459.00, and 455.00 July, with resistance at 468.00, 470.00, and 472.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2340 August. Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2010 August, with resistance at 2210, 2260, and 2290 August.

DJ Malaysia May 1-25 Palm Oil Exports Rose 9.8% to 1,034,829 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Yi Wei Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the May 1-25 period are estimated to have risen 9.8% on month to 1,034,829 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-25 April 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 412,438 349,559
RBD Palm Oil 97,640 65,380
RBD Palm Stearin 80,895 75,984
Crude Palm Oil 133,025 167,300
Total* 1,034,829 942,217
Major importers of Malaysian palm oil:
China
European Union
India & Subcontinent
Middle East
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers this week with best amounts and coverage late in the week. Temperatures should average above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +48 July +130 May +60 May +47 July N/A N/A
June +45 July +50 July +55 July
July +48 July +50 July +58 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 26
WINNIPEG, May 26 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 440.20 -20.00 July 2020 dn 3.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 474.80 10.00 July 2020 up 4.60
Basis: Vancouver 489.80 25.00 July 2020 up 4.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 562.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
July 557.50 +27.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 552.50 +27.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 555.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 565.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
July 560.00 +27.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 555.00 +27.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 557.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 555.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 515.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 2,350.00 +130.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 168.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3480)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 317,023 lots, or 14.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,000 5,038 4,985 5,038 5,005 5,020 15 291 1,640
Sep-20 4,432 4,556 4,414 4,556 4,432 4,491 59 306,619 142,155
Nov-20 4,087 4,099 4,081 4,088 4,070 4,091 21 17 475
Jan-21 3,983 4,027 3,974 4,016 3,984 4,004 20 9,709 19,706
Mar-21 – – – 4,006 3,996 4,006 10 0 48
May-21 3,997 4,016 3,993 4,016 3,992 4,005 13 387 512
Corn
Turnover: 353,340 lots, or 7.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,015 2,023 2,011 2,023 2,009 2,015 6 8,188 42,574
Sep-20 2,043 2,053 2,040 2,053 2,039 2,046 7 277,610 703,883
Nov-20 2,068 2,076 2,064 2,074 2,063 2,070 7 3,165 8,492
Jan-21 2,093 2,098 2,086 2,095 2,088 2,092 4 58,656 219,815
Mar-21 2,109 2,114 2,106 2,114 2,105 2,108 3 779 3,500
May-21 2,131 2,138 2,127 2,136 2,128 2,132 4 4,942 12,287
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,708,734 lots, or 48.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,632 2,680 2,623 2,658 2,624 2,658 34 27,023 54,770
Aug-20 2,770 2,807 2,756 2,799 2,763 2,784 21 18,220 33,217
Sep-20 2,790 2,832 2,780 2,818 2,783 2,812 29 1,359,964 1,639,237
Nov-20 2,823 2,862 2,814 2,852 2,818 2,848 30 17,789 16,812
Dec-20 2,848 2,890 2,843 2,874 2,850 2,872 22 34 356
Jan-21 2,855 2,889 2,845 2,872 2,851 2,871 20 253,863 540,740
Mar-21 2,752 2,785 2,739 2,771 2,742 2,769 27 287 1,736
May-21 2,677 2,707 2,668 2,694 2,674 2,693 19 31,554 71,675
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,090,291 lots, or 50.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-20 4,770 4,770 4,770 4,770 4,762 4,770 8 1 0
Jul-20 4,834 5,020 4,830 4,950 4,722 4,900 178 37 14
Aug-20 4,718 4,718 4,676 4,698 4,712 4,696 -16 3 2
Sep-20 4,616 4,702 4,582 4,694 4,598 4,644 46 1,020,048 430,526
Oct-20 4,524 4,596 4,510 4,588 4,542 4,560 18 41 339
Nov-20 4,562 4,626 4,526 4,606 4,560 4,602 42 23 176
Dec-20 4,630 4,698 4,588 4,656 4,608 4,618 10 26 183
Jan-21 4,686 4,756 4,662 4,752 4,682 4,716 34 69,342 98,417
Feb-21 4,806 4,806 4,806 4,806 4,746 4,806 60 3 12
Mar-21 4,804 4,804 4,804 4,804 4,790 4,804 14 1 20
Apr-21 4,840 4,840 4,840 4,840 4,834 4,840 6 1 154
May-21 4,836 4,896 4,820 4,884 4,838 4,868 30 765 2,440
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 447,738 lots, or 24.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,500 5,700 5,472 5,482 5,470 5,532 62 8 5
Aug-20 – – – 5,520 5,460 5,520 60 0 2
Sep-20 5,480 5,534 5,462 5,522 5,468 5,506 38 394,309 413,710
Nov-20 5,496 5,590 5,496 5,590 5,522 5,550 28 9 402
Dec-20 – – – 5,604 5,576 5,604 28 0 33
Jan-21 5,570 5,616 5,548 5,608 5,562 5,586 24 52,740 113,926
Mar-21 5,632 5,654 5,632 5,654 5,592 5,642 50 4 15
May-21 5,634 5,666 5,614 5,648 5,620 5,638 18 668 1,900
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322