About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was a little lower last week after failing to hold above the previous week highs. Support is coming from improved demand for US Cotton, but this demand has started to fade. Export sales were nothing more than average last week. There is concern that China will stop fulfilling its obligations in the Phase One trade deal due to ramped up US rhetoric on the Chinese response to the Coronavirus epidemic and now the unrest in Hong Kong. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The hope that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return is not likely to be confirmed. Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover. As an example, Chinese stores have been open for several weeks but there has been no consumer rush to go to them and buy. The same is possible here and in Europe although the data so far is mixed in this regard. It is too dry in Brazil for good growth of the second crop of Cotton.
Overnight News: The Delta will get periods of scattered showers and isolated showers and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 53.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,693 bales, from 5,830 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6190, 6670, and 8910 July. Support is at 5740, 5680, and 5640 July, with resistance of 5980, 6050 and 6100 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 19, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 231,995
: Positions :
: 27,424 34,688 55,944 65,609 120,626 69,175 9,991 218,152 221,248: 13,842 10,746
: Changes from: May 12, 2020 (Change in open interest: 1,487) :
: -2,634 -3,759 2,087 942 5,285 636 -1,677 1,031 1,936: 456 -449
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 15.0 24.1 28.3 52.0 29.8 4.3 94.0 95.4: 6.0 4.6
: Total Traders: 268 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 81 77 55 63 43 24 207 206:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher for the week after making new highs for the move. Trends are still up in the market. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice in any form. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at below 70 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida has become much better for the crops. Southern areas are cooler now and have seen a few showers. The midseason Oranges harvest is diminishing. Color break is reported on late variety Oranges. More signs of early bloom and new growth on trees are reported. Favorable weather is reported in Brazil but it has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get frequent periods of showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 132.00 July. Support is at 123.00, 121.00, and 120.00 July, with resistance at 128.00, 130.00, and 133.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 19, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,469 :
: Positions :
: 6,085 10,175 620 15 31 2,168 573 100 855 585 2,182 :
: Changes from: May 12, 2020 :
: -140 1,350 19 1 10 709 -150 7 29 -1 434 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 42.1 70.3 4.3 0.1 0.2 15.0 4.0 0.7 5.9 4.0 15.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 64 :
: 18 17 . . . 15 6 . 14 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – May 21
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
5/9/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
5/9/2020 5/11/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 324.29 311.22 4.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.20 6.19 0.2%
Total 330.49 317.41 4.1%
Pack
Bulk 5.24 5.41 -3.2%
Retail/Institutional 0.88 1.05 -16.2%
Total Pack 6.12 6.46 -5.3%
Reprocessed -3.14 -2.91 8.0%
Pack from Fruit 2.98 3.55 -16.2%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.07 -0.02 222.8%
Imports – Foreign 2.53 11.61 -78.2%
Domestic Receipts 0.32 0.31 2.3%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.06 0.00 NA Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.24 -90.9%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 329.23 325.85 1.0%
Retail/Institutional 7.09 7.25 -2.2%
Total 336.32 333.10 1.0%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.37 4.68 -6.8%
Exports 0.22 0.21 4.5%
Total (Bulk) 4.59 4.90 -6.3%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.05 1.22 -14.1%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.05 1.22 -14.1%
Total Movement 5.64 6.12 -7.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 324.64 320.95 1.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.04 6.03 0.2%
Ending Inventory 330.68 326.98 1.1%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
9-May-20 11-May-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 126.97 117.69 7.9%
Retail/Institutional 35.31 38.43 -8.1%
Total Pack 162.28 156.13 3.9%
Reprocessed -83.47 -81.48 2.4%
Pack from Fruit 78.81 74.65 5.6%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -2.13 -0.75 185.0%
Imports – Foreign 100.78 206.24 -51.1%
Domestic Receipts 10.49 4.66 125.3%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.26 0.04 629.2%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 15.97 3.28 386.8%
Reprocessed FCTJ 1.15 1.37 -16.5%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 481.96 488.26 -1.3%
Retail/Institutional 41.13 44.35 -7.3%
Total 523.09 532.61 -1.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 153.65 153.26 0.2%
Domestic 9.63 14.05 -31.4%
Exports 163.28 167.31 -2.4%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 35.10 38.32 -8.4%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 35.10 38.32 -8.4%
Total Movement 198.37 205.63 -3.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 324.64 320.95 1.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.04 6.03 0.2%
Ending Inventory 330.68 326.98 1.1%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and higher in London. New York was lower on depressed consumer and roaster demand in the US and Europe. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations has dropped to almost nothing. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time. This might change a bit in the next few weeks as the US and EU economies slowly open up. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently and the effects of the Coronavirus. Indonesian producers are more active sellers.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.790 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 103.82 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday after a dry week with near to above normal temperatures. Dry and cool conditions next week. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1091.00 and 96.00 July. Support is at 102.00, 98.00, and 95.00 July, and resistance is at 105.00, 107.00 and 109.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1210, 1230, and 1320 July. Support is at 1190, 1170, and 1150 July, and resistance is at 1220, 1240, and 1260 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 19, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 310,573
: Positions :
: 27,324 22,695 90,150 120,348 171,312 61,570 19,106 299,392 303,263: 11,181 7,309
: Changes from: May 12, 2020 (Change in open interest: 7,419) :
: 237 892 5,814 1,054 353 -188 572 6,917 7,630: 502 -211
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 7.3 29.0 38.8 55.2 19.8 6.2 96.4 97.6: 3.6 2.4
: Total Traders: 377 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 102 72 117 115 114 47 23 326 281:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/19/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
163,829 97,657 64,180 9,010 10,672 1,656
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.6% 39.2% 5.5% 6.5% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 56 44 12 6 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
7,836 42,875 13,979 4,069 5,161 21,053
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.8% 26.2% 8.5% 2.5% 3.2% 12.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
13 35 13 11 15 12
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
8,569 4,252
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 2.6%

DJ Uganda Coffee Production Up More than 50% in Four Years
By Nicholas Bariyo
KAMPALA Uganda-Africa’s top robusta-coffee growing nation has increased production of the crop by more than 50% over the past four years, aided by farmland expansions and maturing plantations, its government said Monday.
Uganda’s ministry of agriculture said in a report that output in the country increased to nearly 7 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2018-19 fiscal year, up from around 4.5 million bags four years ago, as more trees enter into production phase.
The increase in production in Uganda, which exports more coffee beans than any other nation in Africa, comes at a time of shrinking output from Latin America.
“Coffee agro processing is also on the rise, with last year witnessing an increase of 30 coffee-processing haulers, an increase of seven roasters and an increase of 12 export grading plants,” the ministry said in a report.
Uganda, which grows mainly the bitter-tasting robusta coffee variety used in blends and instant drinks, has planted 582 million coffee trees over the past four years. In that time, coffee exports have also increased by nearly 20% to 4.2 million bags last year. Authorities plan to boost production to at least 20 million bags over the next five years.
The coffee harvest from Latin America is expected to drop as coronavirus-related movement restrictions raise labor shortages as the main harvest gets underway, according to traders.
Global coffee exports over the past six months are 4% down on the year, to 61.96 million bags, mainly due to disruptions to supply chains because many countries are under lockdown, the International Coffee Organization.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher with London once again leading the way. Crude Oil and products prices were higher on the week in recovery trading. The recently weaker petroleum futures had made higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. Prices in petroleum futures remained generally firm last week but still have a long way to go before Ethanol processing becomes profitable again. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar in Brazil. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday after a dry week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Dry and cool conditions on tap for next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1070, 1040, and 1020 October, and resistance is at 1130, 1160, and 1180 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 408.00 August. Support is at 360.00, 358.00, and 347.00 August, and resistance is at 371.00, 387.00, and 396.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 19, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,170,536
: Positions :
: 97,062 120,756 195,498 514,177 718,917 286,413 71,166 1,093,150 1,106,337: 77,386 64,198
: Changes from: May 12, 2020 (Change in open interest: 8,951) :
: 17,644 -4,426 -13,346 3,961 30,433 -2,893 -3,012 5,366 9,649: 3,585 -698
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 10.3 16.7 43.9 61.4 24.5 6.1 93.4 94.5: 6.6 5.5
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 55 73 84 76 38 20 219 187:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/19/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
98,056 47,435 75,922 13,589 3,042 3,651
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 48.4% 77.4% 13.9% 3.1% 3.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
110 40 41 12 3 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,573 2,226 4,257 3,048 1,253 5,094
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.9% 2.3% 4.3% 3.1% 1.3% 5.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
25 5 9 8 7 11
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,409 2,611
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.5% 2.7%

COCOA
General Comments: : New York and London closed lower after a week of wide ranges. The virus has complicated farming and marketing efforts. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. Analysts interview by Bloomberg News estimated the grind in Europe and North America moderately lower. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.287 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2200 and 2010 July. Support is at 2310, 2300, and 2260 July, with resistance at 2460, 2470, and 2490 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1890 July, with resistance at 2000, 2030, and 2060 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 19, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 264,798
: Positions :
: 24,347 38,548 67,346 110,885 130,986 49,086 19,523 251,664 256,403: 13,134 8,395
: Changes from: May 12, 2020 (Change in open interest: 7,616) :
: -1,105 -352 5,154 1,096 2,585 1,411 37 6,555 7,423: 1,061 193
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.2 14.6 25.4 41.9 49.5 18.5 7.4 95.0 96.8: 5.0 3.2
: Total Traders: 209 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 51 66 44 39 37 20 175 151:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/19/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
300,135 152,364 220,521 34,836 11,957 17,663
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 50.8% 73.5% 11.6% 4.0% 5.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
143 51 47 13 4 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
39,512 910 14,641 5,058 404 31,323
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.2% 0.3% 4.9% 1.7% 0.1% 10.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
36 6 15 17 6 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,738 2,718
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.6% 0.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322