About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was a little lower again in consolidation trading. Weaker export sales created speculative selling interest. China is asking its industries to ramp up imports of products to avoid any problems later in the year. There are questions as to how much China will eventually buy due to the increased tensions over the Coronavirus. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The hope that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return is not likely to be confirmed. Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover. As an example, Chinese stores have been open for several weeks but there has been no consumer rush to go to them and buy. The same is possible here and in Europe although the data so far is mixed in this regard. It is too dry in Brazil for good growth of the second crop of Cotton. It is also dry in the Texas Panhandle and producers there are getting worried about production potential.
Overnight News: The Delta will get periods of scattered showers and isolated showers through this weekend and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 53.63 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 5,830 bales, from 5,830 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6190, 6670, and 8910 July. Support is at 5740, 5680, and 5640 July, with resistance of 5980, 6050 and 6100 July.

DJ On-Call Cotton – May 21
As of May 15. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 20 25,703 26,726 -1,023 15,816 16,355 -539
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 22,950 22,045 905 23,112 23,399 -287
Mar 21 16,841 14,490 2,351 6,160 3,798 2,362
May 21 6,607 6,412 195 616 646 -30
Jul 21 10,545 10,551 -6 1,463 1,377 86
Dec 21 6,249 4,753 1,496 7,826 6,607 1,219
Mar 22 616 616 0 13 13 0
May 22 100 100 0 0 0 0
Jul 22 50 50 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 7 7 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 7 7 0
Total 89,661 85,743 3,918 55,020 52,209 2,811
Open Open Change
Int Int
Jul 20 86,781 91,346 -4,565
Oct 20 33 90 -57
Dec 20 60,174 54,062 6,112
Mar 21 14,038 13,811 227
May 21 3,741 3,675 66
Jul 21 4,272 3,685 587
Dec 21 8,439 7,615 824
Mar 22 44 44 0
May 22 0 0 0
Jul 22 3 3 0
Dec 22 0 0 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Total 177,525 174,331 3,194

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday as trading volumes start to come down for Memorial Day. Trends are still mostly up in the market. The Coronavirus in Brazil is being watched as exports could be affected. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at below 70 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. The weather in Florida has improved with periods of showers in all areas. The midseason Oranges harvest is diminishing. Color break is reported on late variety Oranges. More signs of early bloom and new growth on trees are reported. Favorable weather is reported in Brazil but it has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get frequent periods of showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 132.00 July. Support is at 121.00, 120.00, and 117.00 July, with resistance at 128.00, 130.00, and 133.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – May 21
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
5/9/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
5/9/2020 5/11/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 324.29 311.22 4.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.20 6.19 0.2%
Total 330.49 317.41 4.1%
Pack
Bulk 5.24 5.41 -3.2%
Retail/Institutional 0.88 1.05 -16.2%
Total Pack 6.12 6.46 -5.3%
Reprocessed -3.14 -2.91 8.0%
Pack from Fruit 2.98 3.55 -16.2%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.07 -0.02 222.8%
Imports – Foreign 2.53 11.61 -78.2%
Domestic Receipts 0.32 0.31 2.3%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.06 0.00 NA Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.24 -90.9%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 329.23 325.85 1.0%
Retail/Institutional 7.09 7.25 -2.2%
Total 336.32 333.10 1.0%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.37 4.68 -6.8%
Exports 0.22 0.21 4.5%
Total (Bulk) 4.59 4.90 -6.3%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.05 1.22 -14.1%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.05 1.22 -14.1%
Total Movement 5.64 6.12 -7.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 324.64 320.95 1.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.04 6.03 0.2%
Ending Inventory 330.68 326.98 1.1%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
9-May-20 11-May-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 126.97 117.69 7.9%
Retail/Institutional 35.31 38.43 -8.1%
Total Pack 162.28 156.13 3.9%
Reprocessed -83.47 -81.48 2.4%
Pack from Fruit 78.81 74.65 5.6%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -2.13 -0.75 185.0%
Imports – Foreign 100.78 206.24 -51.1%
Domestic Receipts 10.49 4.66 125.3%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.26 0.04 629.2%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 15.97 3.28 386.8%
Reprocessed FCTJ 1.15 1.37 -16.5%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 481.96 488.26 -1.3%
Retail/Institutional 41.13 44.35 -7.3%
Total 523.09 532.61 -1.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 153.65 153.26 0.2%
Domestic 9.63 14.05 -31.4%
Exports 163.28 167.31 -2.4%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 35.10 38.32 -8.4%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 35.10 38.32 -8.4%
Total Movement 198.37 205.63 -3.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 324.64 320.95 1.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.04 6.03 0.2%
Ending Inventory 330.68 326.98 1.1%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were mixed in light volume trading with New York a little lower and London a little higher. World economies continue to slowly open. The spread of the Coronavirus in Brazil is being watched as it could really affect exports. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations has dropped to almost nothing but should soon start to improve. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America have been hard. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently and the effects of the Coronavirus. Indonesian producers are more active sellers.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 1.790 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 103.96 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday after a dry week with near to above normal temperatures. Dry and cool conditions next week. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 113.00 and 118.00 July. Support is at 103.00, 102.00, and 98.00 July, and resistance is at 107.00, 109.00 and 110.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1130 and 1090 July. Support is at 1150, 1110, and 1080 July, and resistance is at 1200, 1210, and 1230 July.

DJ Uganda’s April Coffee Exports Rose 18% But Missed Target on Virus Disruption
By Nicholas Bariyo
KAMPALA Uganda-Uganda’s coffee exports jumped 18% in April compared with last year, boosted by favorable weather and larger deliveries from the ongoing harvest in Africa’s largest exporter of the beans, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Friday.
Shipments jumped to 359,973 60-kilogram bags, compared with 305,643 bags exported in April last year. The rise in April was the fourth in a row, bringing the cumulative shipments to 2.9 million bags worth $288 million, representing a 20% jump in volume and a 19% rise in value on year.
However, the total exports were short of the earlier projection of 400,000 bags, a factor the coffee body blamed on the logistical disruptions due to the country’s lockdown as authorities seek to halt the spread of coronavirus.
The UCDA said Ugandan exports continue to be boosted by higher yields as younger trees enter the production phase.
Uganda, which grows mainly the bitter-tasting robusta coffee variety used in blends and instant drinks, exports nearly all its coffee beans output to the U.S. and European Union markets.
Uganda expects a bumper crop of around 5.2 million bags for the 2019-20 season, compared with 4.5 million bags last season.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed mostly lower, with far deferred months making small gains in New York. Trends are still up in both markets. The Coronavirus is being watched in Brazil as exports could be affected. Ethanol production is the key for Brazil, but prices of Sugar are competitive right now. Prices in petroleum futures remained generally firm in the last week but still have a long way to go before Ethanol processing becomes very profitable again. However, Crude Oil is facing increasingly bullish fundamentals now with the recent production cuts and the world economies starting to open up and promote more use of petroleum products. More Sugarcane became available for processing into Sugar but the production mix could shift back to ethanol very quickly. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday after a dry week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Dry and cool conditions on tap for next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1320 and 1420 October. Support is at 1070, 1040, and 1020 October, and resistance is at 1130, 1160, and 1180 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 408.00 August. Support is at 358.00, 347.00, and 340.00 August, and resistance is at 371.00, 387.00, and 396.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower and trends are starting to turn down for the short term. The virus has complicated farming and marketing efforts. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. Analysts interview by Bloomberg News estimated the grind in Europe and North America moderately lower. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.287 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2200 and 2010 July. Support is at 2310, 2300, and 2260 July, with resistance at 2390, 2460, and 2470 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1910, 1890, and 1860 July. Support is at 1910, 1890, and 1880 July, with resistance at 1960, 1980, and 2000 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322