About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for May USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed May 1 95.0 94.1- 95.7
Placed in April 77.1 71.8- 86.7
Marketed in April 74.7 70.0- 82.7
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
May 1 in April in April
Allegiant Commodity Group 95.2 78.8 74.6
Allendale Inc. 95.1 86.7 82.7
HedgersEdge 94.1 71.8 74.6
Linn Group 95.0 71.9 70.0
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 94.9 77.3 75.0
NFC Markets 94.4 74.1 74.7
Texas A&M Extension 95.4 80.0 75.0
U.S. Commodities 95.7 80.5 74.0

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-May 21
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 80.870 million pounds, in April, 3.5% above the previous
month, and 32.3% above April 2019, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Thursday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Apr 30 Mar 31 Apr 30 Mar 31 warehouse
2020 2020 2019 2019 stocks/Apr
pork bellies 80,870 78,157 61,110 58,783
orange juice 838,528 802,443 795,383 704,400
french fries 978,968 1,077,825 969,089 1,038,225
other potatoes 217,705 231,638 242,123 253,586
chicken rstr (whole) 22,545 20,146 18,037 19,048
ham 114,433 88,308 121,331 103,486
total pork 614,811 616,734 621,456 608,379 550,088
total beef 489,999 502,319 430,222 451,940 479,867
total red meat 1,148,113 1,161,747 1,098,090 1,095,919 1,070,618
total chicken 933,585 920,101 881,055 868,359
total turkey 417,032 387,503 471,592 470,335
total poultry 1,356,475 1,311,016 1,356,871 1,342,856 1,283,479
===============================================================================

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher in fund related buying tied to the dry weather in Europe and Russia. Europe got some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia also got a little rain in northern and central areas. The rains in Russia are leaving southern areas dry. These areas have turned dry again. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas of the Great Plains. However, there is rain in the forecast for later this week. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. It has been mostly dry but cold in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Warmer and drier weather is expected this week. End users are uncovered and will need to buy at some point.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see dry conditions this week and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal in the west and above normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 508, 501, and 496 July, with resistance at 528, 535, and 540 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 449, 439, and 431 July, with resistance at 461, 468, and 473 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 510, 504, and 502 July, and resistance is at 526, 528, and 534 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in quiet trading. There is not much going on in this market these days. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop month of July. New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers. Some producers are selling the next crop and some hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. Planting should be active again this week in Arkansas and Mississippi. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. However, they were a marketing year low last week at about 28,000 tons. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is developing well.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1591, 1581, and 1562 July, with resistance at 1637, 1656, and 1668 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower. Improved fundamentals are offering a little support, but overall attitudes are still bearish. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. The plants are opening now with some government mandated protections for workers, but not all workers are back to work and the social distancing requirements means that less meat can be processed in any case. Cattle and hog producers are seeing less demand for their production and that has affected feed demand. Feed and ethanol demand are improving, but most still see a cut in these demand areas and increased ending stocks down the road for Corn.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 314, 312, and 308 July, and resistance is at 325, 327, and 332 July. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 309, 300, and 295 July, and resistance is at 323, 327, and 330 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher. Soybeans and also Soybean Oil found support from ideas of increased bio fuels demand, but Soybeans did not hear of any new demand from China. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. Weather became more important late in the week but it is improving with warmer temperatures. Some Soybeans might need to be replanted this week. Brazil production is almost sold out now. Production estimates are slightly less than before due to hot and dry weather in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 832, 830, and 818 July, and resistance is at 850, 861, and 868 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 279.00 July. Support is at 280.00, 277.00, and 274.00 July, and resistance is at 286.00, 288.00, and 290.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2680, 2630, and 2620 July, with resistance at 2760, 2810, and 2860 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower despite increasing demand for bio fuels and consumer consumption as an edible oil. Palm Oil is hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. In particular, India has been buying as restrictions have eased there and China has been a noted buyer recently. Canola was lower yesterday in part on the price action in Chicago. Speculators were the best sellers. Canola has found support from a weaker Canadian Dollar. The weather has been cold in the Prairies and planting has been delayed in Alberta from too much rain. Saskatchewan reported that planting was the same as the five year average. It will turn warmer this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 464.00 July. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 472.00, 474.00, and 478.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2340 August. Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2010 August, with resistance at 2210, 2260, and 2290 August.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – May 21
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended May 17, 2020. Figures in thousands of metric
tons. Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2432.6 522.8 238.8 444.4 75.0 1073.4 263.2 124.2 5667.3
Week Ago 2799.1 597.0 253.7 434.6 78.5 1157.3 326.6 126.2 6338.3
Year Ago 2302.0 506.8 204.9 256.6 71.1 916.1 273.5 397.6 5623.5
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 269.6 75.5 19.5 42.1 7.1 296.0 27.0 4.2 789.0
Week Ago 310.4 67.6 24.6 63.0 17.8 369.5 64.3 5.0 1003.1
To Date 16943.4 4034.3 2122.3 3247.1 295.5 15930.0 3283.2 287.6 49316.5
Year Ago 17104.6 3519.1 1789.8 2940.6 326.5 14374.6 2723.0 453.4 46433.8
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 396.3 89.3 0.1 56.5 16.9 138.0 47.7 23.5 817.0
Week Ago 522.5 124.4 2.0 87.5 20.6 165.6 61.1 27.0 1102.9
To Date 14914.3 4834.1 387.0 1676.2 123.4 8584.0 2104.3 240.5 37335.9
Year Ago 16140.0 3888.2 335.8 1828.4 106.8 7924.2 1556.2 1110.3 38559.8
EXPORTS
This Week 350.8 94.9 19.4 139.5 0.5 131.7 27.6 50.8 895.2
Week Ago 755.0 204.9 9.2 64.5 0.9 138.6 67.6 8.6 1313.1
To Date 12993.6 4114.7 1367.5 1754.4 114.9 7839.9 2092.8 91.0 33838.0
Year Ago 14249.6 3512.1 1251.0 1993.2 193.1 7368.5 1595.4 1332.1 35526.3
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 35.7 3.2 9.2 30.0 1.2 188.4 3.9 10.0 325.9
Week Ago 50.0 6.4 18.9 26.8 3.4 237.0 10.5 7.2 392.7
To Date 3189.0 311.4 586.2 1299.0 42.9 8301.4 187.4 465.4 15747.8
Year Ago 3218.7 280.0 240.3 908.7 46.6 7400.5 170.3 909.9 14998.1
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week but showers are possible this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +48 July +130 May +60 May +47 July N/A N/A
June +45 July +50 July +55 July
July +48 July +50 July +58 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 25
WINNIPEG, May 21 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 456.60 -13.00 June 2020 dn 2.70
Basis: Thunder Bay 477.20 10.00 June 2020 dn 5.40
Basis: Vancouver 492.20 25.00 June 2020 dn 5.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 532.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
July 530.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 525.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 532.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 535.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
July 532.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 527.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 535.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 535.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 505.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 2,220.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 165.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3575)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 485,330 lots, or 21.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,003 5,039 4,994 5,034 4,977 5,024 47 338 1,899
Sep-20 4,332 4,463 4,315 4,420 4,289 4,399 110 468,126 128,856
Nov-20 4,028 4,100 4,028 4,063 4,003 4,080 77 81 473
Jan-21 3,955 4,039 3,941 4,029 3,940 4,000 60 16,607 18,103
Mar-21 4,002 4,078 4,002 4,040 3,967 4,061 94 7 47
May-21 3,971 4,053 3,971 4,039 3,990 4,029 39 171 170
Corn
Turnover: 373,890 lots, or 7.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 1,991 2,002 1,989 1,992 2,008 1,996 -12 11,506 46,148
Sep-20 2,014 2,027 2,013 2,022 2,032 2,019 -13 311,634 725,748
Nov-20 2,037 2,048 2,036 2,043 2,056 2,043 -13 2,365 5,697
Jan-21 2,060 2,071 2,055 2,065 2,075 2,064 -11 41,057 194,266
Mar-21 2,071 2,086 2,071 2,084 2,089 2,080 -9 3,353 3,260
May-21 2,100 2,113 2,094 2,110 2,106 2,106 0 3,975 7,126
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,407,601 lots, or 38.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,596 2,623 2,580 2,598 2,608 2,597 -11 20,993 63,609
Aug-20 2,737 2,751 2,710 2,732 2,733 2,724 -9 15,092 22,312
Sep-20 2,743 2,773 2,730 2,754 2,749 2,748 -1 1,108,961 1,588,520
Nov-20 2,775 2,803 2,765 2,790 2,786 2,782 -4 16,978 15,114
Dec-20 2,813 2,813 2,800 2,810 2,828 2,807 -21 7 366
Jan-21 2,807 2,834 2,800 2,820 2,821 2,816 -5 209,236 467,471
Mar-21 2,712 2,732 2,707 2,722 2,719 2,715 -4 330 2,039
May-21 2,645 2,660 2,635 2,649 2,647 2,646 -1 36,004 61,593
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,413,882 lots, or 64.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-20 4,684 4,684 4,684 4,684 4,668 4,684 16 1 5
Jul-20 4,616 4,736 4,616 4,688 4,724 4,690 -34 19 11
Aug-20 4,708 4,708 4,580 4,706 4,668 4,656 -12 6 4
Sep-20 4,612 4,642 4,474 4,480 4,578 4,558 -20 1,319,583 410,775
Oct-20 4,540 4,578 4,456 4,460 4,510 4,522 12 106 353
Nov-20 4,586 4,600 4,500 4,500 4,576 4,548 -28 78 178
Dec-20 4,622 4,622 4,540 4,540 4,626 4,570 -56 6 178
Jan-21 4,710 4,742 4,586 4,588 4,686 4,658 -28 93,378 93,438
Feb-21 4,762 4,762 4,762 4,762 4,758 4,762 4 1 16
Mar-21 4,810 4,816 4,730 4,730 4,808 4,770 -38 11 20
Apr-21 4,744 4,744 4,726 4,726 4,778 4,742 -36 53 53
May-21 4,840 4,880 4,754 4,760 4,814 4,810 -4 640 1,969
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 491,614 lots, or 26.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,448 5,448 5,448 0 0 5
Aug-20 5,460 5,460 5,460 5,460 5,470 5,460 -10 1 2
Sep-20 5,470 5,490 5,380 5,392 5,468 5,438 -30 427,197 414,770
Nov-20 – – – 5,506 5,536 5,506 -30 0 409
Dec-20 5,560 5,560 5,560 5,560 5,562 5,560 -2 1 33
Jan-21 5,582 5,594 5,472 5,484 5,568 5,526 -42 63,248 105,639
Mar-21 5,556 5,556 5,556 5,556 5,638 5,556 -82 1 19
May-21 5,658 5,672 5,550 5,556 5,644 5,604 -40 1,166 1,050
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322