About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 21
For the week ended May 14, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 175.8 252.4 26555.9 25715.1 3392.6 2536.3
hrw 52.7 80.3 9938.6 9318.6 1170.2 1071.1
srw 7.9 44.6 2448.7 3361.6 193.8 337.8
hrs 81.8 42.3 7874.6 7107.0 1185.7 552.7
white 33.4 78.2 5309.9 5423.9 742.1 355.7
durum 0.0 7.0 984.1 503.9 100.8 219.0
corn 884.2 -29.4 39478.4 47340.3 12804.5 3338.5
soybeans 1205.0 464.0 41517.9 45772.9 6406.7 2129.4
soymeal 198.8 0.0 9837.1 10711.3 2250.5 235.1
soyoil 62.1 0.5 1084.1 706.0 296.3 11.0
upland cotton 128.9 120.2 16291.2 14622.2 5481.1 2650.0
pima cotton 0.6 0.0 546.8 707.3 136.5 33.8
sorghum 83.1 32.0 3672.5 1610.4 1282.8 195.0
barley 0.2 0.0 50.1 61.2 9.8 31.0
rice 113.3 0.0 3333.1 2950.8 622.0 0.0

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for May USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed May 1 95.0 94.1- 95.7
Placed in April 77.1 71.8- 86.7
Marketed in April 74.7 70.0- 82.7
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
May 1 in April in April
Allegiant Commodity Group 95.2 78.8 74.6
Allendale Inc. 95.1 86.7 82.7
HedgersEdge 94.1 71.8 74.6
Linn Group 95.0 71.9 70.0
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 94.9 77.3 75.0
NFC Markets 94.4 74.1 74.7
Texas A&M Extension 95.4 80.0 75.0
U.S. Commodities 95.7 80.5 74.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher in fund related buying. Reports that Russia and Europe are turning dry again has supported the markets. The big negative for the market is still better weather for Europe and Russia. Europe got some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia also got a little rain in northern and central areas. The rains in Russia are leaving southern areas dry. These areas have turned dry again. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas of the Great Plains. However, there is rain in the forecast for later this week. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. It has been mostly dry but cold in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Warmer and drier weather is expected this week. End users are uncovered and will need to buy at some point.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see dry conditions this week and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal in the west and above normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 508, 501, and 496 July, with resistance at 528, 535, and 540 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 449, 439, and 431 July, with resistance at 457, 468, and 473 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 529, 546, and 545 July. Support is at 510, 504, and 502 July, and resistance is at 526, 534, and 538 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in the front two months and a little lower in deferred months. There is not much going on in this market these days. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop months and the funds have been buying. New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers. Some producers are selling the next crop and some hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. Planting should be active again this week in Arkansas and Mississippi. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. However, they were a marketing year low last week at about 28,000 tons. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is developing well.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1591, 1581, and 1562 July, with resistance at 1637, 1656, and 1668 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower in the front months, but slightly higher in new crop months. Oats were lower but still look strong on the charts. It is possible that Corn futures have seen at least a short term low. Improved fundamentals are offering a little support, but overall attitudes are still bearish. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. The plants are opening now with some government mandated protections for workers, but not all workers are back to work and the social distancing requirements means that less meat can be processed in any case. Cattle and hog producers are seeing much less demand for their production and that has affected feed demand. Feed and ethanol demand are improving, but most still see a cut in theser demand areas and increased ending stocks down the road for Corn.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 314, 312, and 308 July, and resistance is at 325, 327, and 332 July. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 309, 300, and 295 July, and resistance is at 323, 327, and 330 July.

DJ Ethanol Production Slowly Improves — Market Talk

1128 ET – US ethanol production continues to improve after hitting a record low last month, rising 46,000 barrels per day to 663,000 barrels per day this week according to the EIA. Meanwhile, ethanol inventories continue to decline, with inventories down 564,000 barrels to 23.626 million barrels. While this movement was expected by grains traders, the movements are not as large as traders expected. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were all higher. Soybeans and also Soybean Oil found support from ideas of increased bio fuels demand, but Soybeans did not hear of any new demand from China. But, the rumors were there to support the market. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. Weather became more important late in the week but it is improving with warmer temperatures. Some Soybeans might need to be replanted this week. Brazil production is almost sold out now. Production estimates are slightly less than before due to hot and dry weather in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 835, 832, and 830 July, and resistance is at 850, 861, and 868 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 284.00 and 279.00 July. Support is at 283.00, 280.00, and 277.00 July, and resistance is at 288.00, 290.00, and 294.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2680, 2630, and 2620 July, with resistance at 2810, 2860, and 2960 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on increasing demand for bio fuels and consumer consumption as an edible oil. Palm Oil is hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. In particular, India has been buying as restrictions have eased there and China has been a noted buyer recently. Canola was unchanged to higher yesterday in part on the price action in Chicago. Canola has found support from a weaker Canadian Dollar. The weather has been cold in the Prairies and planting has been delayed. It will turn warmer this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 470.00, 465.00, and 462.00 July, with resistance at 474.00, 478.00, and 482.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2340 August. Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2010 August, with resistance at 2210, 2260, and 2290 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week but showers are possible this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +50 July +130 May +60 May +47 July N/A N/A
June +48 July +50 July +52 July
July +50 July +50 July +57 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 20
WINNIPEG, May 20 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 459.30 -13.00 June 2020 unchanged
Basis: Thunder Bay 482.60 10.00 June 2020 up 1.40
Basis: Vancouver 497.60 25.00 June 2020 up 1.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 537.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
July 532.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 527.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 535.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 540.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
July 535.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 530.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 537.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 540.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 510.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 2,250.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 166.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3435)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 293,648 lots, or 12.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 4,878 5,020 4,878 5,003 4,905 4,977 72 1,052 1,941
Sep-20 4,244 4,350 4,231 4,332 4,251 4,289 38 283,633 137,646
Nov-20 3,992 4,028 3,976 4,028 3,947 4,003 56 71 469
Jan-21 3,915 3,960 3,908 3,951 3,904 3,940 36 8,757 16,205
Mar-21 – – – 3,967 3,931 3,967 36 0 45
May-21 3,961 4,000 3,961 3,990 3,965 3,990 25 135 92
Corn
Turnover: 534,616 lots, or 10.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,002 2,019 1,994 1,997 1,999 2,008 9 15,733 47,329
Sep-20 2,027 2,045 2,019 2,019 2,023 2,032 9 432,862 726,251
Nov-20 2,050 2,064 2,040 2,041 2,045 2,056 11 4,643 5,083
Jan-21 2,070 2,083 2,060 2,061 2,066 2,075 9 74,385 189,076
Mar-21 2,088 2,097 2,074 2,076 2,079 2,089 10 3,686 2,485
May-21 2,100 2,113 2,097 2,099 2,098 2,106 8 3,307 5,089
Soymeal
Turnover: 987,485 lots, or 27.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,626 2,626 2,591 2,597 2,608 2,608 0 29,419 64,365
Aug-20 2,728 2,745 2,710 2,720 2,724 2,733 9 11,375 20,749
Sep-20 2,765 2,765 2,732 2,742 2,745 2,749 4 710,718 1,656,180
Nov-20 2,793 2,801 2,767 2,774 2,779 2,786 7 9,821 14,944
Dec-20 2,834 2,834 2,806 2,806 2,815 2,828 13 9 366
Jan-21 2,830 2,838 2,803 2,810 2,814 2,821 7 187,999 462,621
Mar-21 2,727 2,733 2,707 2,712 2,714 2,719 5 387 2,102
May-21 2,649 2,657 2,636 2,641 2,633 2,647 14 37,757 53,257
Palm Oil
Turnover: 857,480 lots, or 39.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-20 4,646 4,760 4,604 4,666 4,718 4,668 -50 7 6
Jul-20 – – – 4,724 4,724 4,724 0 0 11
Aug-20 4,626 4,696 4,626 4,636 4,672 4,668 -4 32 6
Sep-20 4,570 4,614 4,550 4,570 4,578 4,578 0 795,446 413,547
Oct-20 4,500 4,536 4,494 4,516 4,508 4,510 2 51 339
Nov-20 4,560 4,596 4,560 4,578 4,560 4,576 16 16 179
Dec-20 4,578 4,678 4,578 4,618 4,604 4,626 22 93 179
Jan-21 4,686 4,712 4,664 4,684 4,678 4,686 8 60,721 94,340
Feb-21 4,756 4,768 4,746 4,768 4,716 4,758 42 12 16
Mar-21 4,784 4,836 4,764 4,830 4,722 4,808 86 23 15
Apr-21 4,788 4,790 4,752 4,758 4,700 4,778 78 7 6
May-21 4,796 4,846 4,794 4,830 4,804 4,814 10 1,072 1,987
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 400,376 lots, or 21.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,448 5,448 5,448 0 0 5
Aug-20 – – – 5,470 5,470 5,470 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,466 5,500 5,442 5,458 5,438 5,468 30 356,517 413,068
Nov-20 5,536 5,536 5,536 5,536 5,510 5,536 26 1 409
Dec-20 5,562 5,564 5,562 5,564 5,512 5,562 50 2 33
Jan-21 5,570 5,600 5,546 5,562 5,542 5,568 26 43,346 97,494
Mar-21 5,622 5,682 5,620 5,644 5,582 5,638 56 17 20
May-21 5,640 5,672 5,620 5,638 5,614 5,644 30 493 575
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322