About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for May USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed May 1 95.0 94.1- 95.7
Placed in April 77.1 71.8- 86.7
Marketed in April 74.7 70.0- 82.7
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
May 1 in April in April
Allegiant Commodity Group 95.2 78.8 74.6
Allendale Inc. 95.1 86.7 82.7
HedgersEdge 94.1 71.8 74.6
Linn Group 95.0 71.9 70.0
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 94.9 77.3 75.0
NFC Markets 94.4 74.1 74.7
Texas A&M Extension 95.4 80.0 75.0
U.S. Commodities 95.7 80.5 74.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly higher in fund related buying. HRW markets were lower. Improving weather around the world and here at home was the big reason to see some selling hit the markets, but reports that Russia and Europe are turning dry again has supported the markets. The big negative for the market is still better weather for Europe and Russia. Europe got some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia also got a little rain in northern and central areas. The rains in Russia are leaving southern areas dry. These areas have turned dry again. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas of the Great Plains. However, there is rain in the forecast for later this week. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. It has been mostly dry but cold in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Warmer and drier weather is expected this week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see dry conditions this week and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal in the west and above normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 492 and 468 July. Support is at 494, 488, and 482 July, with resistance at 506, 508, and 513 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 436 and 418 July. Support is at 439, 431, and 428 July, with resistance at 450, 457, and 468 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 502, 497, and 491 July, and resistance is at 514, 517, and 526 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in consolidation trading. The fundamentals are mostly the same and unchanged for the last few weeks. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop months and the funds have been buying. New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers. Some producers are selling the next crop and some hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting should be active again this week in the state and northernsections of the state are reported to be planted already. Mississippi has also had problems planting the crop due to too much rain but the crop is being planted. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. However, they were a marketing year low last week at about 28,000 tons. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well. Rice in Texas and Louisiana is in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1581, 1562, and 1554 July, with resistance at 1637, 1656, and 1668 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 20
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.52 11.06 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.17 11.79 0.00
Brokens 11.11 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher. Oats were lower but still look strong on the charts. It is possible that Corn futures have seen at least a short term low. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. The plants are opening now with some government mandated protections for workers, but not all workers are back to work and the social distancing requirements means that less meat can be processed in any case. Cattle and hog producers are seeing much less demand for their production and that has affected feed demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 314, 312, and 308 July, and resistance is at 325, 327, and 332 July. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 309, 300, and 295 July, and resistance is at 323, 327, and 330 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower, Soybean Oil lower, and Soybean Meal a little lower. Soybeans and also Soybean Oil found support from ideas of increased bio fuels demand, but Soybeans did not hear of any new demand from China. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. Weather became more important late in the week but it is improving with warmer temperatures. Some Soybeans might need to be replanted this week. Brazil production is almost sold out now. Production estimates are slightly less than before due to hot and dry weather in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 832, 830, and 818 July, and resistance is at 850, 861, and 868 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 284.00 and 279.00 July. Support is at 283.00, 280.00, and 277.00 July, and resistance is at 288.00, 290.00, and 294.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2680, 2630, and 2620 July, with resistance at 2810, 2860, and 2960 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: World vegetable oils markets were all higher yesterday. Palm Oil closed lower on Chicago price action and despite ideas of increasing demand for bio fuels and consumer consumption as an edible oil. Palm Oil is hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. In particular, India has been buying as restrictions have eased there. Canola was unchanged to higher yesterday. Canola has found support from a weaker Canadian Dollar. Canola is more of a food oil than the others, although it also has bio fuels uses. China has recently allowed Canadian Canola imports to resume, so demand could soon improve. The weather has been cold in the Prairies and planting has been delayed. It will turn warmer this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 475.00 July. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 474.00, 478.00, and 482.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2340 August. Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2010 August, with resistance at 2210, 2260, and 2290 August.

DJ Malaysia May 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 781,324 Tons, Up 14%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the May 1-20 period are estimated 14% higher on month at 781,324 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-20 April 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 266,138 237,729
RBD Palm Oil 72,740 39,380
RBD Palm Stearin 66,395 48,634
Crude Palm Oil 103,850 140,515
Total* 781,324 684,162
Major importers of Malaysian palm oil:
China
European Union
India & Subcontinent
Middle East
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Malaysia April 1-25 Palm Oil Exports Up 5.5% -SGS
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the April 1-25 period are estimated up 5.5% on month at 959,088 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
April 1-25 March 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 293,309 271,711
RBD Palm Oil 80,430 96,196
RBD Palm Stearin 91,874 70,891
Crude Palm Oil 159,390 113,665
Total* 959,088 909,055
Major importers of Malaysian palm oil:
European Union 257,465 330,528
U.S. 74,915 26,256
China 170,070 160,700
Japan 20,453 37,354
India 10,150 34,840
Korea 30,500 25,130
Pakistan 35,500 8,600
Bangladesh 46,500 0
Egypt 1,050 3,000
Turkey 24,200 26,300
South Africa 68,040 76,235
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week but showers are possible this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +51 July +126 May +60 May +47 July +12 July N/A
June +48 July +50 July +49 July
July +48 July +50 July +54 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 19
WINNIPEG – The following are the closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 459.30 -13.00 June 2020 up 1.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 482.30 10.00 June 2020 unchanged
Basis: Vancouver 497.30 25.00 June 2020 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 532.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
July 527.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 525.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 535.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 535.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
July 530.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 527.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 537.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 535.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 507.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 2,230.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 164.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3515)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 218,209 lots, or 9.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 5,000 5,000 4,875 4,901 5,009 4,905 -104 1,165 2,157
Sep-20 4,271 4,299 4,217 4,234 4,291 4,251 -40 207,638 143,681
Nov-20 3,977 3,984 3,932 3,955 3,963 3,947 -16 32 496
Jan-21 3,926 3,937 3,885 3,907 3,929 3,904 -25 9,291 16,530
Mar-21 3,943 3,946 3,915 3,915 3,940 3,931 -9 5 45
May-21 4,121 4,121 3,906 3,961 3,940 3,965 25 78 23
Corn
Turnover: 720,219 lots, or 14.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,011 2,011 1,988 2,006 2,012 1,999 -13 16,225 49,641
Sep-20 2,038 2,041 2,013 2,032 2,043 2,023 -20 589,108 739,139
Nov-20 2,063 2,063 2,035 2,055 2,065 2,045 -20 7,916 5,030
Jan-21 2,083 2,083 2,056 2,076 2,083 2,066 -17 97,786 181,833
Mar-21 2,087 2,092 2,066 2,092 2,095 2,079 -16 4,740 2,135
May-21 2,120 2,120 2,087 2,105 2,095 2,098 3 4,444 3,448
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,061,684 lots, or 29.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 2,606 2,624 2,594 2,620 2,604 2,608 4 29,890 69,079
Aug-20 2,721 2,742 2,711 2,738 2,719 2,724 5 11,217 20,740
Sep-20 2,742 2,761 2,728 2,757 2,735 2,745 10 769,585 1,674,616
Nov-20 2,776 2,797 2,763 2,793 2,772 2,779 7 6,351 15,728
Dec-20 2,808 2,830 2,802 2,819 2,807 2,815 8 10 373
Jan-21 2,808 2,835 2,793 2,830 2,806 2,814 8 192,257 459,562
Mar-21 2,730 2,731 2,697 2,727 2,723 2,714 -9 772 2,100
May-21 2,640 2,659 2,613 2,649 2,723 2,633 -90 51,602 33,801
Palm Oil
Turnover: 891,436 lots, or 40.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-20 4,860 4,860 4,610 4,722 4,740 4,718 -22 14 5
Jul-20 4,642 4,840 4,642 4,682 4,666 4,724 58 17 11
Aug-20 4,872 4,872 4,624 4,670 4,684 4,672 -12 8 6
Sep-20 4,592 4,620 4,536 4,558 4,558 4,578 20 824,678 411,632
Oct-20 4,508 4,532 4,480 4,508 4,502 4,508 6 48 341
Nov-20 4,606 4,606 4,546 4,552 4,616 4,560 -56 210 180
Dec-20 4,612 4,612 4,598 4,598 4,606 4,604 -2 3 180
Jan-21 4,680 4,708 4,650 4,670 4,678 4,678 0 64,185 90,611
Feb-21 4,718 4,724 4,702 4,724 4,682 4,716 34 7 17
Mar-21 – – – 4,722 4,722 4,722 0 0 19
Apr-21 4,688 4,720 4,670 4,718 4,676 4,700 24 24 9
May-21 4,836 4,858 4,770 4,806 4,676 4,804 128 2,242 1,682
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 310,861 lots, or 16.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-20 – – – 5,448 5,448 5,448 0 0 5
Aug-20 5,486 5,486 5,454 5,454 5,432 5,470 38 16 2
Sep-20 5,446 5,462 5,410 5,448 5,430 5,438 8 277,827 405,894
Nov-20 5,492 5,544 5,490 5,544 5,488 5,510 22 15 410
Dec-20 5,512 5,512 5,512 5,512 5,520 5,512 -8 1 33
Jan-21 5,544 5,564 5,514 5,550 5,532 5,542 10 32,548 96,325
Mar-21 – – – 5,582 5,572 5,582 10 0 21
May-21 5,600 5,630 5,596 5,620 5,572 5,614 42 454 276
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322