About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 18
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 14, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/14/2020 05/07/2020 05/16/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 122 30,548 9,988
CORN 1,150,674 1,399,282 840,474 26,227,574 37,473,771
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 520 462
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,343 2,992
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 227,642 77,053 17,657 2,952,233 1,320,579
SOYBEANS 352,189 534,609 498,122 34,752,227 33,187,286
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 440,822 343,221 838,956 23,880,410 23,669,088
Total 2,171,327 2,354,165 2,195,331 87,846,855 95,664,166
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 18-May 10-May 2019 Avg
Cotton Planted 44 32 39 40
Corn Planted 80 67 44 71
Corn Emerged 43 24 16 40
Soybeans Planted 53 38 16 38
Soybeans Emerged 18 7 4 12
Sorghum Planted 32 28 25 34
Rice Planted 81 70 68 84
Rice Emerged 67 43 49 68
Peanuts Planted 46 27 56 53
Sugarbeets Planted 78 60 82 93
Sunflowers Planted 4 2 9
Oats Planted 86 78 73 87
Oats Emerged
69 55 50 70
Winter Wheat Headed 56 44 51 62
Spring Wheat Planted 60 42 63 80
Spring Wheat Emerged 30 16 21 46
Barley Planted 72 60 71 82
Barley Emerged 44 24 35 52

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 5 11 32 44 8
Winter Wheat Last Week 5 11 31 45 8
Winter Wheat Last Year 2 6 26 50 16

Rice This Week 1 2 34 53 10

Oats This Week 1 2 22 65 10
Oats Last Week 1 2 28 59 10
Oats Last Year

Pastures and Ranges This Week 5 11 37 41 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 5 11 36 42 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 1 5 28 53 13

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for May USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed May 1 95.0 94.1- 95.7
Placed in April 77.1 71.8- 86.7
Marketed in April 74.7 70.0- 82.7
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
May 1 in April in April
Allegiant Commodity Group 95.2 78.8 74.6
Allendale Inc. 95.1 86.7 82.7
HedgersEdge 94.1 71.8 74.6
Linn Group 95.0 71.9 70.0
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 94.9 77.3 75.0
NFC Markets 94.4 74.1 74.7
Texas A&M Extension 95.4 80.0 75.0
U.S. Commodities 95.7 80.5 74.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower. Improving weather around the world and here at home was the big reason to see some selling hit the markets, but reports that Russia and Europe are turning dry again could support the markets. The big negative for the market is still better weather for Europe and Russia. Europe got some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia also got a little rain in northern and central areas. The rains in Russia are leaving southern areas dry. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected. It was very cold over the weekend in many SRW areas and a frost or freeze hit many Wheat areas and caused some losses. Reduced production ideas are floated for HRW areas. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas after a freeze a few weeks ago. However, there is rain in the forecast for later this week. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. It has been mostly dry but cold in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Warmer and drier weather is expected this week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 492 and 468 July. Support is at 494, 488, and 482 July, with resistance at 506, 508, and 513 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 436 and 418 July. Support is at 447, 439, and 431 July, with resistance at 457, 468, and 473 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 506, 502, and 497 July, and resistance is at 517, 524, and 526 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher. July had the biggest range and helped support rallies in the new crop months The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop months and the funds have been buying. New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers. Some producers are selling the next crop and some hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting should be active again this week in the state and northern sections of the state are reported to be planted already. Mississippi has also had problems planting the crop due to too much rain but the crop is being planted. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. However, they were a marketing year low last week at about 28,000 tons. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well. Rice in Texas and Louisiana is in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1581, 1562, and 1554 July, with resistance at 1637, 1656, and 1668 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was mixed, with nearby months a little higher and deferred months a little lower. Oats were higher and are still rallying. It is possible that Corn futures have seen at least a short term low. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. The plants are opening now with some government mandated protections for workers, but not all workers are back to work and the social distancing requirements means that less meat can be processed in any case. Cattle and hog producers are seeing much less demand for their production and that has affected feed demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 314, 312, and 308 July, and resistance is at 324, 327, and 332 July. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 309, 300, and 295 July, and resistance is at 324, 327, and 330 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed mixed wjth Soybeans a little higher, Soybean Oil higher, and Soybean Meal a little lower. Soybeans and also Soybean Oil found support from ideas of increased bio fuels demand, and Soybeans found some support from reports that China has asked food companies to ramp up purchases to avoid disruptions from the Coronavirus that is now starting to affect the port in Brazil. The news buoyed a market in search of demand. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. Weather became more important late in the week but it is improving with warmer temperatures. Some Soybeans might need to be replanted this week. Brazil production is almost sold out now. Production estimates are slightly less than before due to hot and dry weather in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 832, 830, and 818 July, and resistance is at 850, 861, and 868 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 284.00 and 279.00 July. Support is at 283.00, 280.00, and 277.00 July, and resistance is at 288.00, 290.00, and 294.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2680, 2630, and 2620 July, with resistance at 2810, 2860, and 2960 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: World vegetable oils markets were all higher yesterday. Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of increasing demand for bio fuels. Palm Oil is hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Canola was closed yesterday. Canola has found support from the recent recovery in Soybeans and Soybean Oil along with a weaker Canadian Dollar. Canola is more of a food oil than the others, although it also has bio fuels uses. China has recently allowed Canadian Canola imports to resume, so demand could soon improve. The weather has been cold in the Prairies and planting has been delayed. It will turn warmer this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 475.00 July. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 474.00, 478.00, and 482.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2340 August. Support is at 2100, 2010, and 1970 August, with resistance at 2170, 2210, and 2260 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week but showers are possible this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans
Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
+45 May
+128 May
+60 May
+47 July
+12 July
N/A
June
+45 July
+50 July
+53 July

July
+45 July
+50 July
+57 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 535.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 527.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 525.00 — Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 535.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 537.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 530.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 527.50 — Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 537.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 537.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 507.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,230.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 164.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.345)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 289,331 lots, or 12.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 – – – 5,275 5,339 5,275 -64 0 0
Jul-20 5,003 5,029 4,992 4,993 5,016 5,009 -7 237 1,584
Sep-20 4,276 4,326 4,249 4,276 4,304 4,291 -13 276,725 139,839
Nov-20 3,944 3,998 3,937 3,960 3,961 3,963 2 26 493
Jan-21 3,905 3,969 3,885 3,919 3,921 3,929 8 12,337 17,394
Mar-21 3,915 3,959 3,915 3,948 3,933 3,940 7 6 44
Corn
Turnover: 289,713 lots, or 5.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 – – – 2,010 2,000 2,010 10 0 0
Jul-20 2,014 2,016 2,008 2,012 2,010 2,012 2 5,198 52,799
Sep-20 2,049 2,050 2,038 2,043 2,040 2,043 3 235,754 746,854
Nov-20 2,069 2,069 2,059 2,063 2,061 2,065 4 4,684 5,101
Jan-21 2,089 2,089 2,077 2,080 2,077 2,083 6 40,752 164,552
Mar-21 2,097 2,100 2,089 2,092 2,091 2,095 4 3,325 2,357
Soymeal
Turnover: 807,087 lots, or 22.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,535 2,545 2,531 2,542 2,554 2,665 111 112 0
Jul-20 2,612 2,615 2,594 2,606 2,596 2,604 8 23,707 70,872
Aug-20 2,720 2,738 2,708 2,721 2,705 2,719 14 10,579 18,772
Sep-20 2,745 2,747 2,726 2,738 2,728 2,735 7 647,890 1,685,962
Nov-20 2,781 2,781 2,763 2,772 2,762 2,772 10 7,002 15,028
Dec-20 2,819 2,819 2,795 2,806 2,815 2,807 -8 71 377
Jan-21 2,815 2,816 2,798 2,804 2,802 2,806 4 117,089 444,283
Mar-21 2,727 2,730 2,718 2,724 2,734 2,723 -11 637 2,099
Palm Oil
Turnover: 885,786 lots, or 40.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,690 4,746 4,690 4,746 4,616 4,474 -142 32 0
Jun-20 4,744 4,744 4,732 4,732 4,680 4,740 60 3 4
Jul-20 4,682 4,784 4,606 4,700 4,748 4,666 -82 34 11
Aug-20 4,684 4,684 4,684 4,684 4,636 4,684 48 1 6
Sep-20 4,560 4,594 4,526 4,570 4,520 4,558 38 819,584 399,431
Oct-20 4,476 4,536 4,460 4,514 4,464 4,502 38 76 335
Nov-20 4,484 4,690 4,448 4,628 4,478 4,616 138 183 214
Dec-20 4,624 4,652 4,572 4,602 4,584 4,606 22 27 181
Jan-21 4,700 4,722 4,644 4,670 4,658 4,678 20 65,820 91,909
Feb-21 4,726 4,736 4,612 4,700 4,666 4,682 16 11 17
Mar-21 4,722 4,722 4,722 4,722 4,734 4,722 -12 1 19
Apr-21 4,712 4,740 4,584 4,658 4,660 4,676 16 14 21
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 364,004 lots, or 19.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 – – – 5,396 5,396 5,396 0 76 0
Jul-20 – – – 5,448 5,448 5,448 0 0 5
Aug-20 5,410 5,480 5,410 5,410 5,418 5,432 14 3 2
Sep-20 5,442 5,470 5,402 5,422 5,418 5,430 12 326,124 414,268
Nov-20 5,466 5,498 5,466 5,498 5,468 5,488 20 8 413
Dec-20 5,530 5,530 5,512 5,514 5,526 5,520 -6 6 34
Jan-21 5,548 5,570 5,504 5,534 5,516 5,532 16 37,782 95,946
Mar-21 5,580 5,580 5,552 5,552 5,480 5,572 92 5 21
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322