About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was higher last week and higher prices are possible this week. Support is coming from improved demand for US Cotton. The weekly export sales report showed another solid increase in sales with China as a buyer. Vietnam was also a good buyer. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The hope that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return is not likely to be confirmed. Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover. As an example, Chinese stores have been open for several weeks but there has been no consumer rush to go to them and buy. The same is possible here and in Europe although the data so far is mixed in this regard. It is too dry in Brazil for good growth of the second crop of Cotton.
Overnight News: The Delta will get periods of scattered showers and isolated showers this week and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 53.82 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 3,579 bales, from 3,579 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6190, 6670, and 8910 July. Support is at 5680, 5640, and 5500 July, with resistance of 6050, 6100 and 6120 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 12, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 230,508
: Positions :
: 30,059 38,447 53,857 64,667 115,340 68,539 11,668 217,121 219,312: 13,386 11,195
: Changes from: May 5, 2020 (Change in open interest: 1,684) :
: 1,823 -2,812 -298 407 5,918 -1,162 -954 769 1,854: 915 -170
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.0 16.7 23.4 28.1 50.0 29.7 5.1 94.2 95.1: 5.8 4.9
: Total Traders: 270 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 85 76 55 64 41 23 207 207:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Final Texas Upland Cotton Production Estimates – May 15
In thousand acres and 480-pound bales.
Source: Texas Agricultural Statistics Service.
acres/ yield –production–
District harvest lb/acre 2019 2018
N high plains 620 703 908 1,895
S high plains 2,237 458 2,137 2,057
N low plains 395 501 412 430
S low plains 522 325 353 233
blacklands 156 586 190 246
coastal bend 348 1,002 726 555
upper coast 320 833 555 547
lower r g vly 201 812 339 242
all other 451 756 700 710
total Texas 5,250 578 6,320 6,850

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher for the week in July after making new highs for the move. The roll from May to July on the weekly charts made FCOJ close a little lower for the week. Trends are still up in the market. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice in any form. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at below 70 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. The weather in Florida has become a mixed bag over the last few weeks. It has been very hot and dry in south Florida but the north has gotten a lot of rain. Southern areas are cooler now and have seen a few showers. The midseason Oranges harvest is diminishing. Irrigation has been run several times per week in most areas. Color break is reported on late variety Oranges. More signs of early bloom and new growth on trees are reported. Favorable weather is reported in Brazil but it has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICS said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 126.00 and 132.00 July. Support is at 120.00, 117.00, and 115.00 July, with resistance at 127.00, 130.00, and 133.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 12, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,730 :
: Positions :
: 6,225 8,825 601 15 22 1,459 723 93 826 586 1,748 :
: Changes from: May 5, 2020 :
: -93 152 -141 0 -2 248 -323 0 12 -3 139 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.9 69.3 4.7 0.1 0.2 11.5 5.7 0.7 6.5 4.6 13.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 18 17 . . . 9 7 . 16 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower with most of the weakness in New York. New York was lower on depressed consumer and roaster demand in the US and Europe. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations has dropped to almost nothing. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time. This might change a bit in the next few weeks as the US and EU economies slowly open up. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently and the effects of the Coronavirus. Indonesian producers are more active sellers.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 1.789 million bags. GCA stocks are now 6.517 million bags, from 6.023 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 104.49 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers on Sunday after a dry week with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 889 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 113.00 and 118.00 July. Support is at 105.00, 103.00, and 102.00 July, and resistance is at 110.00, 113.00 and 115.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1130 and 1090 July. Support is at 1150, 1110, and 1080 July, and resistance is at 1200, 1210, and 1230 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 12, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 303,153
: Positions :
: 27,086 21,803 84,336 119,294 170,959 61,758 18,534 292,475 295,633: 10,678 7,521
: Changes from: May 5, 2020 (Change in open interest: -1,972) :
: 2,253 609 -1,946 -1,509 -1,091 -1,490 318 -2,692 -2,111: 720 139
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 7.2 27.8 39.4 56.4 20.4 6.1 96.5 97.5: 3.5 2.5
: Total Traders: 370 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 104 67 114 111 110 47 23 319 273:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/12/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
160,162 97,210 64,822 8,203 7,491 1,455
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 60.7% 40.5% 5.1% 4.7% 0.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
158 58 43 12 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
6,938 41,507 14,507 3,396 5,148 21,359
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.3% 25.9% 9.1% 2.1% 3.2% 13.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
14 34 13 12 10 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,094 3,873
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 2.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher with London leading the way. Crude Oil and products prices were higher. The recently weaker petroleum futures had made higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. Prices in petroleum futures remained generally firm last week but still have a long way to go before Ethanol processing becomes profitable again. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers on Sunday after a dry week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1020, 990, and 950 October, and resistance is at 1070, 1120, and 1160 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 408.00 August. Support is at 358.00, 347.00, and 340.00 August, and resistance is at 367.00, 387.00, and 396.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 12, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,161,585
: Positions :
: 79,419 125,182 208,844 510,216 688,485 289,305 74,178 1,087,784 1,096,688: 73,800 64,897
: Changes from: May 5, 2020 (Change in open interest: 33,259) :
: 5,107 -3,889 16,950 7,198 17,092 3,916 5,007 33,171 35,160: 89 -1,901
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.8 10.8 18.0 43.9 59.3 24.9 6.4 93.6 94.4: 6.4 5.6
: Total Traders: 252 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 55 73 87 77 37 20 221 189:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/12/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
97,286 48,586 74,951 13,212 3,222 3,669
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 49.9% 77.0% 13.6% 3.3% 3.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
119 44 42 12 3 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,483 3,686 4,166 3,561 924 4,171
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.9% 3.8% 4.3% 3.7% 0.9% 4.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 8 8 8 5 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,437 2,496
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 2.6%

COCOA
General Comments: New York was slightly lower and London closed lower after a week of wide ranges. The virus has complicated farming and marketing efforts. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. Analysts interview by Bloomberg News estimated the grind in Europe and North America moderately lower. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.317 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May NY contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 95 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2380, 2340, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2470, 2490, and 2510 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1890 July, with resistance at 2000, 2030, and 2050 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 12, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 257,182
: Positions :
: 25,453 38,900 62,192 109,789 128,401 47,675 19,486 245,109 248,979: 12,073 8,202
: Changes from: May 5, 2020 (Change in open interest: 8,201) :
: 585 242 7,093 -1,012 -968 1,818 1,268 8,483 7,635: -283 566
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.9 15.1 24.2 42.7 49.9 18.5 7.6 95.3 96.8: 4.7 3.2
: Total Traders: 208 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 42 70 44 39 37 19 177 151:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/12/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
295,977 155,042 219,713 35,870 12,188 16,866
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 52.4% 74.2% 12.1% 4.1% 5.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
138 50 45 13 4 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
34,679 658 12,880 5,201 291 30,459
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.7% 0.2% 4.4% 1.8% 0.1% 10.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
34 6 13 15 7 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,980 2,922
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.7% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322